GMG - Goodman Group
- Thread starter Snakey
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I've been trying to buy in all day, but the price just keeps creeping up, even with the downtrending ALL ORDs as the day progressed. It looked nice at 0.30$ SP, but not as nice at 0.38, perception of a bargain is disappearing.
But you mention a 70% DIV, according to my calcs, the DIV would be 35% for the full year on a $0.38 SP. They paid 9.65c already, and will likely pay another 4-5c in June 09.
But you mention a 70% DIV, according to my calcs, the DIV would be 35% for the full year on a $0.38 SP. They paid 9.65c already, and will likely pay another 4-5c in June 09.
hey dirk
here is a statement for their half year results:
Goodman is a fundamentally
strong business with a global
footprint and the right strategy
to manage through these
difficult times and to deliver
long-term growth.
As a result, we maintain our
target earnings per security
of 19.3 cents for the full year.
i guess that brings it closer to 50%
considering risk and return and goodmans track record to sustain hard through times my target on these would be around $1 thus
paying 20% dividend
$1 is also their asset backing per share
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Hi Snakey, good to see someone else on here is following GMG, it seems a lot more popular on hotcopper.
I was just going by the earnings to DIV percentage, half year earnings were 11.1cps, and DIV was eventually 9.65cps, which is a 87% DIV return on earnings, therefore is they held their full year earnings at 19.3cps, then I was assuming the full year DIV should be roughly 87% return on earnings, so 87% on 19.3cps is 16.8cps, but I didn't actually think it would be that high. so working back on a $0.38 SP, with at highest expected DIV of 16.8cps, return be 44%, I was thinking more along the lines of 35%, as everyone likes to drop the DIV a bit these days to help with cash flow and reduce debt, but yes you're right, more like 50% on todays $0.34 SP.
Incidentally, not trying to argue, just showing you how I did the calc. It seems to make sense, but there's always the chance of a surprise. Let me know if you see any holes in the above theory.
I was just going by the earnings to DIV percentage, half year earnings were 11.1cps, and DIV was eventually 9.65cps, which is a 87% DIV return on earnings, therefore is they held their full year earnings at 19.3cps, then I was assuming the full year DIV should be roughly 87% return on earnings, so 87% on 19.3cps is 16.8cps, but I didn't actually think it would be that high. so working back on a $0.38 SP, with at highest expected DIV of 16.8cps, return be 44%, I was thinking more along the lines of 35%, as everyone likes to drop the DIV a bit these days to help with cash flow and reduce debt, but yes you're right, more like 50% on todays $0.34 SP.
Incidentally, not trying to argue, just showing you how I did the calc. It seems to make sense, but there's always the chance of a surprise. Let me know if you see any holes in the above theory.
Yeah theory looks good,
Better to play safe than sorry
looks like we will get a strong bullish close
cheers
did you manage to get some over the last few days?
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Gday Snakey and Dirk,
You right about $1 for the assets. Even allowing for 20% asset write downs and some lost goodwill, it is safe to say this is an easy double from 35 to 70 cents in short term. Im back in at 21and 28 cents so hapy days now (not so happy when the Goodman was 14 cents.
Dividends will always make this one attractive too. Other than GPT, this is the best REIT in the aussie market.
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Thats a big statement to make. Are you not worried about debt ? And too much of it ? $400M required to be refinanced by may (no statement on this yet), $600M to be refinanced 2010.
Debt is what has killed or maimed other big aussie co's.
$400M ?????
where did you get that from?
they say they have no commitments till 2010(the $600m as you mention)
they did capital rising and refinance in 2008
"The capital management
strategy for our funds produced
a weighted average debt maturity
of 3.3 years as at 31 December
2008 and ensured that all
funds are well capitalised,
with no debt maturities for the
year ending 30 June 2009."
Just did a bit of research on GMG after being alerted to it in this thread. I like the look of it in the long term to be honest. Like most stocks it has taken a beating and has some recovery to do. I've been reading some analysts that say property is still going to be a bit of a touch and go proposition for a while but will be putting my money where my mouth is and trying to make a small play on this one in the next week or two. Long term hold.
Yeah I hear ya Bhenn, i am buying into GMG for the long haul too, just concerned about some of its short term debt obligations, as soon as that clears i will most likely buy some more. I like its potential and you are also right about it having taken a beating 
i remember the days where GMG was trading at 7 dollars. Kinda feel for those investors that bought into them then
i remember the days where GMG was trading at 7 dollars. Kinda feel for those investors that bought into them then Gday guys, looks like GMG won't be paying out the second half distribution in order to focus on capital 'survival'. I'm still looking at this stock but the ongoing debt problems are a worry.
http://business.watoday.com.au/busi...th-funds-but-little-detail-20090501-aq7i.html
http://business.watoday.com.au/busi...th-funds-but-little-detail-20090501-aq7i.html
It's a bit of a punt but will be interesting to see the news come out about the refinancing deal this week. Some articles I've read point to middle east or Singaporean investment to the tune of 460 mil to help cut debt. Hopefully it's good news and this one starts to move up. Bought in at 30 cents a share on Friday.
Am happy to go without the second half dividend so long as there is some good news on the debt soon. If can consolidate in this market I think it will ride a reasonable recovery into 2010/11.
johannlo
wintermute000
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Guessing but notice how the lenders now have options at 30c a share, so possibility of big dilution in future.
