SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*
- Thread starter ivant
- Start date
But, i have to say, wasn't today the weirdest day (in the markets)?
Just seems like the ceiling of the bounce, or the floor of the next run up... More likely to be the ceiling of bounce. The SPI hasn't rallied at all.
I'm guessing that where the All Ords ends up tonight will be important.
Should be interesting...
I think at the moment nothing really is a surprise. Look at the 3/4 hour charts, how their MACD is falling (a big fan of that). Also the 2 day plots... We are massively overbought. Just seems more likely that its the ceiling IMO.
Let's wait and find out
- Joined
- 2 September 2008
- Posts
- 1,038
- Reactions
- 1
A perfect eliott wave symmetrical triangle forming
Then again.. according to ivant i wouldn't know anything
Cheers
Brad
Then again.. according to ivant i wouldn't know anything
Cheers
Brad
Do you mean overbought?! Freudian slip
Yeah, today was really flat. Still 1 hr to go. Taking bets now
Maybe this is what a regular day in the market should look like (apart from the stagnation): some sectors up, some down. Some flat
- Joined
- 16 February 2008
- Posts
- 2,906
- Reactions
- 2
And for me. Wednesday, Nikkei shut, Thursday some great moves globally, but obviously some idiot decided he would use this strength to do his end of month selling! Today, practically all of Asia shut.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Nikkei shut.
Then we are dead every day preceeding a US public holiday.
Very annoying!
Think we will break down this afternoon
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 22,018
- Reactions
- 11,004
I'm not sure about perfect. It's more ascending, than symmetrical. I am still counting on it to fall over for more consolidation before going much higher. 3800 ish on the XJO looks pretty tough. Happy for it to push through though.
A perfect eliott wave symmetrical triangle forming
Then again.. according to ivant i wouldn't know anything
Cheers
Brad
Haha i didnt say you didnt know anything Brad, i just claimed you weren't open minded
This will never get old haha. Although my EW is weak, isn't it always a little hard to predict the 4th and 5th waves?I agree man, our markets are dull. Actually the US isn't too much better. UK is pretty active. Time will tell if this continues, but McClellan Oscillator is suggesting a heavy heavy move before the end of the weekend!
Do you mean overbought?! Freudian slip
Yeah, today was really flat. Still 1 hr to go. Taking bets now
Maybe this is what a regular day in the market should look like (apart from the stagnation): some sectors up, some down. Some flat
Lol thanks for that!!! I fixed that, naughty naughty Ivan. Yea maybe if we broke 900 last night on the S&P, we would be in a bull market, and then this is what everyday would be like. Macquarie is in a trading halt. Oh oh.. Lucky I sold them a few weeks ago at 30.
- Joined
- 16 February 2008
- Posts
- 2,906
- Reactions
- 2
3800 ish on the XJO looks pretty tough. Happy for it to push through though.
If they can close us above there one of these days (at cash close) = bullish.
If not = bearish.
My
- Joined
- 2 September 2008
- Posts
- 1,038
- Reactions
- 1
Haha i didnt say you didnt know anything Brad, i just claimed you weren't open minded
We are going to retest that bottom line again, that's for sure.
Either way we break out of that triangle, it isn't going to be pretty
If its on the downside, skydiving hard and fast, then alot of weak buyers will be shaken out and we'll probably take out the March lows.
The Stochastic on the XJO is nearly unwound, we had some bearish type-a divergance late in April indicating we wouldn't take out the April highs for some time, and continue sideways at least until the Stochastic unwound.
Now that it has we could basically go anywhere.
I am not a believer in trying to predict the market.. Because i don't know what its going to do in the future. All i do is manage risk
SPI200 Chat - What will happen next??
I can tell you right now, nobody can answer this!
My
- Bearish, especially with the U.S reporting season coming up very shortly.And for me. Wednesday, Nikkei shut, Thursday some great moves globally, but obviously some idiot decided he would use this strength to do his end of month selling! Today, practically all of Asia shut.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Nikkei shut.
Then we are dead every day preceeding a US public holiday.
Very annoying!
Think we will break down this afternoon
Haha, obviously this idiot found a good time to dump his contracts... Why is Asia all shut?
I think its likely that a break will happen. US tonight has unemployment come out I believe.. When is the US holiday? Man i'm behind on the loop..
If they can close us above there one of these days (at cash close) = bullish.
If not = bearish.
My
Maybe not that far... Although I think above 3850, we definitely have some bullish trends...
ivant said:
According to the NYSE, not for a few weeks.
MRC & Co said:
No, the bounce is on. Partly because it may have just started, but mainly because I'm off to the shops (always a sign to take the trade I may have made).
beamstas said:
I don't care, just as long as the daily ranges are decent. For the immediate future, down would be good as the rally needs some balancing.
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 22,018
- Reactions
- 11,004
SPI200 Chat - What will happen next??
I can tell you right now, nobody can answer this!
My
So we're going down, for sure....
If we break up it won't be pretty?
Agree. What if it's choppy?
What? So, the bearish divergance is unwound, isn't that more bullish?
Isn't that what you've just been trying to do? Refer to second quote.
- Joined
- 16 February 2008
- Posts
- 2,906
- Reactions
- 2
No US holiday, just vening my frustration at our markets inability to trade properly when the larger markets are shut. It's like lunchtime all day long!
Na, 3800 a far more important number to close XJO CASH above IMO. We've already closed above 3750 numerous times, right?
S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern
I've been factoring in a lower Friday close for this week:- looking for a move back into 844 in the short-term
But it won't happen unless it breaks support (5-day range)
Yesterday's reversal down should have closed below support and not
bounce.
It would not surprise me to see US markets close higher and around Friday's
highs
And then look for a higher Weekly open next week back down into 844
I've been factoring in a lower Friday close for this week:- looking for a move back into 844 in the short-term
But it won't happen unless it breaks support (5-day range)
Yesterday's reversal down should have closed below support and not
bounce.
It would not surprise me to see US markets close higher and around Friday's
highs
And then look for a higher Weekly open next week back down into 844
Attachments
This is from nomore4s in the *trading blows goats* thread. Interesting take (sorry nomore4s for moving your quote, just thought it was relavant ):
):
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 22,018
- Reactions
- 11,004
I agree to some extent. Some will simply add to their positions.This is from nomore4s in the *trading blows goats* thread. Interesting take (sorry nomore4s for moving your quote, just thought it was relavant
However, I think there's still some taxi driver/hair dresser/HC type characters still lurking who will dump on the next momentum led lemming rush to the cliff edge.
I'm still waiting for them to be flushed down the loo.
- Joined
- 16 February 2008
- Posts
- 2,906
- Reactions
- 2
Yes, note the wink!
On a day like today, it was always likely the range would be small, so more likely we would trade back up into it after breaking this mornings lows than running away downwards (of course, post cash could see anything, when the wild west opens). Also helps the S&P is going up, however, I doubt we will go as far, perhaps some unwinding of long SPI, short S&P spreads over the stress test period and before the weekend.
Gee you spend some time at the shops!
Personally, I hope the SPI does have another up leg, larger daily ranges.
We are going to retest that bottom line again, that's for sure.
Either way we break out of that triangle, it isn't going to be pretty
If its on the downside, skydiving hard and fast, then alot of weak buyers will be shaken out and we'll probably take out the March lows.
The Stochastic on the XJO is nearly unwound, we had some bearish type-a divergance late in April indicating we wouldn't take out the April highs for some time, and continue sideways at least until the Stochastic unwound.
Now that it has we could basically go anywhere.
I am not a believer in trying to predict the market.. Because i don't know what its going to do in the future. All i do is manage risk
SPI200 Chat - What will happen next??
I can tell you right now, nobody can answer this!
My
Well obviously we do agree on more things than we originally thought! Haha, I strongly agree in reference to predicting where the market will go, and that we manage risk. We get a good view on the market and put out money where our mouth is. Then if something goes haywire we cut.
I have noticed the unwinding on the daily charts, however the longer term scales are still overbought.. 2 day charts and weekly charts are still a little too high for my liking... I guess time shall tell
I am amazed that so many people are bearish, and yet its not coming through.. That is the only worrying thing in my view.
Hey that will hurt me! I have 120 contracts riding on a fall lol! Don't wish for that... lol...
We are getting active now!! We moved 5 points in the last 7 minutes!! Its on.. Although we are reverting to futures only, so we shall see how it goes from now. We could get some movement in the last 1/2 hour..
In the US, the shorts haven't really been around too much during this rally. Believe you me, they will come back. Historically all lows need to be retested. All the mum and dad investors are weak buyers, they will sell out as soon as they get hit. and if they dont, who really cares? One man's decision will not affect the market, unless you are shorting with too many contracts...say 50,000.
Similar threads
- Poll
