PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

tech/a · 7 March 2007

Sorry Julia.

I tend to only comment on elliot when it has relevance.
In this analysis I'll mark up one tonight and post it up.

Sort of a crash course in basics.

Anyway.
5 min chart is looking very familiar to the consolidation range we had not so long ago---3 days infact.

This is indicating no strong buying.
Every time it reaches the resistance (top Blue line) sellers swamp buyers and price moves back toward support (Bottom Blue line).

I expect the bottom Blue line to be broken and price fall away sooner than later.Price may for a short time exhaust buyers by going a few tick over the resistance level before dropping away.

Wait and see.

KIWIKARLOS · 7 March 2007

So does anyone still think we're crashing?

I almost bought into the panic, but I held. Unfortunately I didn't buy, but alot of my mates did and have now made 20% + on alot of stocks.

tech/a · 7 March 2007

Kiwi.

That 20% will look less soon Im sure. Unless they got out at 20% profit.

A bit of education.

Corrective waves move in 3's

KIWIKARLOS · 7 March 2007

I should get into graphs more there is obviously alot you can pick up with them.

I still believe it is very unlikely to go under 5600 during this correction. Am i right in saying that the wave peaks look to be getting smaller and is leading towards a stabilisation?

Kauri · 7 March 2007

The first few minutes after the close not looking too good, long time between now and tomorrow am. though...

tech/a · 7 March 2007

This will be very basic explaination as whole books have been written by people who have studied Elliot all their lives.

Dynamic Trading by Robert Miner is right to the point but like all publications on Elliot difficult to follow for those who have little technical background.

OK

Corrective patterns are "Normally" 3 waves.
BUT
If the low of wave 3
is taken out then this will be a 5 wave correction which in its entirety becomes 1 wave (or "A") of a larger 3 wave correction A,B,C.
Three wave corrections are labelled A,B,C.

Corrections can be very complex so dont get all tied up trying to label them just know that they are a corrective (Read non trending) move.

Trending
Is characterised Either long or short by 5 wave patterns.
1,2,3,4,5
Waves 1,3,5 are impulsive---forward moving and Waves 2,4 corrective.

Waves form in various degrees or Timeframes.
Minutes/hrs/daily/weekly/monthly.

If the wave 2 is simple or quick to form before continuing the trend then the wave 4 will be complex and Vice versa.

Wave 3 MUST not be the shortest wave.
Wave 4 cannot be lower than Wave 1 high.

That will do without confusing people.
As for Targets they "Normally" fall at a Fibonacci level which you'll see on peoples charts.
1 or 1.618 X last wave length being the most common---there are many other levels.

Hope this helps.
Just watch and ask questions if we miss in commentary.
If you need to learn another language then Elliot analysis is for YOU.

Porper · 7 March 2007

KIWIKARLOS said:
So does anyone still think we're crashing?

I almost bought into the panic, but I held. Unfortunately I didn't buy, but alot of my mates did and have now made 20% + on alot of stocks.

I wouldn't get too confident Kiwi.

Maybe the market is just sucking everybody in to a false sense of security, then Bang, another big drop.That's my take anyway.

No smoke without fire as they say.Time to go short now i.m.o.

wayneL · 7 March 2007

tech/a said:
Corrective patterns are "Normally" 3 waves.
BUT
If the low of wave 3
is taken out then this will be a 5 wave correction which in its entirety becomes 1 wave (or "A") of a larger 3 wave correction A,B,C.
Three wave corrections are labelled A,B,C.

Corrections can be very complex so dont get all tied up trying to label them just know that they are a corrective (Read non trending) move.

Just a bit of pedagoguery:

Correctives can trend in the case of double and triple zig zags. The difference from an impulse is that the smaller degree waves are all also corrective... unless one or more of the corrective patterns is a flat in which case wave c will be impulsive...

...Bex please lol

constable · 7 March 2007

wayneL said:
Just a bit of pedagoguery:

Correctives can trend in the case of double and triple zig zags. The difference from an impulse is that the smaller degree waves are all also corrective... unless one or more of the corrective patterns is a flat in which case wave c will be impulsive...

...Bex please lol

Now i love my english and i had a near perfect score for my exam in vce, but i would love to know just what the **** is pedagoguery?

CanOz · 7 March 2007

I get the distinct feeling that there are two schools of thought here on this correction.

Some feel that the bounce was a retracement from the breakdown.

Others feel that the bounce is part of the three wave decline.

Am i right with this?

Cheers,

tech/a · 8 March 2007

CanOz said:
I get the distinct feeling that there are two schools of thought here on this correction.

Some feel that the bounce was a retracement from the breakdown.

Others feel that the bounce is part of the three wave decline.

Am i right with this?

Cheers,

Currently you/they could be right on BOTH counts.
A new high above 6000+ would see school B correct.
A breakdown of significance would see (At the time) School A correct.

The question is
At what point do you declare either A or B to be correct?

coyotte · 8 March 2007

Would have thought "Failure to rise above the previous high"

Cheers

tech/a · 8 March 2007

Early trading

tech/a · 14 March 2007

For me there were 3 signs of the end on the latest run up or Wave "B"
Last night VSA analysis gave another.

Discussion was here yesterday

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=133836#post133836

(1) Wave "B" retraced to just over .618 of the initial down move.

(2) The XJO was rising all last week and the Techtrader portfolio which predominantly holds some of the best performers of current years,became weaker as each day crept ahead on the XJO,clear DIVERGENCE

Clear SELLING INTO STRENGTH

(3) Yesterday was a Pivot Point Reversal.

(4) Volume and Spread analysis alerted NO DEMAND---confirmed in (2)

Technical analysis is about CONFIRMATION---its pretty clear.

wayneL · 14 March 2007

ABC zig-zags are the easiest, the most high probability EW pattern to trade in real time IMO. I love them.

pacer · 14 March 2007

But is the Aussie stock market stronger than a chart.....there' still plenty of money looking for a home out there...where will it go this time....gold stocks me thinks....I'm betting on it this time round, and a few biotechs and it's no wonder Woollies is climbing...everyone has to eat and people are looking for a safe bet, but WOW is one I'm looking to short if it realy overheats.

But dont listen to me I know nothing and delegate all my stock picks to my cat.

tech/a · 14 March 2007

But is the Aussie stock market stronger than a chart.....

What the----???

Is a failing Heart stronger than an ECG?
(God-- things just keep moving to a higher level on a daily basis).

nizar · 14 March 2007

tech/a said:
What the----???

Is a failing Heart stronger than an ECG?
(God-- things just keep moving to a higher level on a daily basis).

LOL tend to agree.
Tech, wave C takes us down to 5400ish?
Close to the 200dma...

Sean K · 14 March 2007

nizar said:
LOL tend to agree.
Tech, wave C takes us down to 5400ish?
Close to the 200dma...

Just on a wave C, can someone tell us the 'rules' for this. Is it longer than A, a 50% retractment from A, or B or ?? I'm not sure if there is a 'rule'. My pluck would be to put it where I first thought this was going: At 5450 ish, just on the support line around there. ??

coyotte · 14 March 2007

From Adaptive Analysis:

Wave "A" and Wave "C" tend to be the same length.

Hence: A = 6052-5642=410 , C = 5895-410 = 5485.

Ref: XJO

Cheers

PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

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