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HDR - Hardman Resources

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Re: TZL and HDR

Next congestion zone seems to be at $1.20, I really can't see why it would go there but that's the trend as it appears to me. The long candle shadow to below $1.40 may signal a reversal due to rejection of lower prices but considering HDR's history this is not assured (eg July/Aug 2004). The volume over the last few weeks is solid but not too high so hopefully a lot of loyal HDR holders are still there, maybe this just shook out the weak hands. Only issue now is that oil is down and nothing seems to be happening till next year.
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Article on oil price drop. Heading for 40 at the moment, next month or two at least looking bearish for oil, but you can never predict these things with so much volatility around.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...-OPEC-decisions/2004/12/12/1102786931186.html

Here's a chart showing what appears to me to be a head and shoulders reversal. Appears to be falling back to 35-40, probably will consolidate there, early days yet. I hope HDR holders don't panic since nothing much is expected from HDR for the nex month- this is probably why they're jumping out short term. I haven't been able to post a chart with oil and HDR compared but will try.
(I'll post more on oil in the oil thread later on, perhaps the experts will be able to throw more light on its direction in that thread).

Light Crude Oil (CL, NYMEX)
Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Jan., 2005
Date:12/10/2004 O=43.05 H=43.10 L=40.25 C=40.71 V=99433
 

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Re: TZL and HDR

Rich.

Hope wont help!!
 

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Re: TZL and HDR

I'm not an expert, but I think the price of oil will move strictly according to supply/demand --- the charts will be irrelevant. If there is a warm winter and US stocks go up, the POO will drop, and the head/shoulders chart will appear correct. If there is another supply disruption (yukos or middle east problem) then the POO will go up, and the chartists will say they were waiting for confirmation of the trend ;)

My thoughts only.
 
Re: TZL and HDR

markrmau said:
I'm not an expert, but I think the price of oil will move strictly according to supply/demand --- the charts will be irrelevant. If there is a warm winter and US stocks go up, the POO will drop, and the head/shoulders chart will appear correct. If there is another supply disruption (yukos or middle east problem) then the POO will go up, and the chartists will say they were waiting for confirmation of the trend ;)

My thoughts only.
Click to expand...

You're right of course about supply disruptions and its effect on the oil price. I suppose my general view is a technical chart-based view and yours is a fundamentals based view. I use a bit of fundamentals myself but the basic tenant of TA is that the chart tells you all that you need to know about a price- that's the basic premise anyway, it's been explained in more eloquent terms than that but that's the gist of it. I wont get into a TA v fundamentals debate here because it'll take us off thread (and it's been debated elsewhere on these forums) but thanks for the input, just goes to show how hard it is to predict where oil and Hardman will go in the near term as there are so many different views. Maybe we can revive the oil thread on the other board soon?
 
Re: TZL and HDR

tech/a said:
Rich.

Hope wont help!!
Click to expand...

Not wrong there!

Thanks for that great chart Tech, I've got my sites on $1.20 too but I didin't measure the H&S's as you did (and as I should have) I just looked for support or congestion (agreement over price, triangle pattern which formed the basis for this year's spring up). I'll have to reassess once things move down there to see if it bounces up or continues its bearish trend.

As for 'hope', I'm actually expecting it to go to $1.20 or at least $1.40 maybe my emotions are slipping in there when I say 'hope'. When $1.80 broke I got worried, turns out rightly so. Various factors have come together to short HDR recently (dusters, oil plunge, govt buying in etc) but if I'd followed my charts instead of my emotions I would have been prepared ahead of time.

I also found when I got caught up (read as 'fell in love with') in HDR that I was spending more time looking at short-term daily charts than longterm weekly charts- hence missing the double top!! Now I start with the longest term chart I can find and then narrow in. I've heard that tip before but need to get into the habit of using it.
 
HDR - Where to?

Hi All,
fairly new to investing in the stock market, been reading the forums for a few months tho - learnt a bit, but i have a question.

i bought 500 odd HDR shares @ 1.56, just a nice simple entry level option for me to get a taste of buying and selling, and a feel for how it all works.

they recently announced "Appendix 3B - Exercise of Options", just to sooth my curiosity, what does this mean? they are offering 70k options @ 1.10.

so far its all good fun, and am enjoying it thourolly!

cheers all :)
Ben
 
Re: HDR - Where to?

bena,

I have not read the release in details but normally it just means that directors have executed their rights to get options at an agreed price. In this case $1.10. Those plans are usually established as an insentitive motivating management to work hard to exceed certain goals so that they can then profit from these options as they will hopefully be less expensive then the current share price and therefore create a windfall for them.

You may wish to check the HDR thread for more discussions, details and opinions. Some interesting postings to read there.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=427

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Hm, $1.2 sounds very unlikely to me from my point of view.

Oil got cheaper but that can only be a temporary thing for now. Winter has yet to hit the northern hemisphere and I'm not so sure that IRAQ will become a major player anytime soon. There are signs of a slow down in China and the US but nothing is more reliable then the US when it comes to constant need for oil. Just wait until they get their fair share of winter storms. Their storage may have increased but that's just because they didn't need as much due to warm weather and not because they are saving anything or using it more efficiently.

HDR itself is surely trading at levels where it has to be considered a bargain by many traders if you look at what they have in store. $1.4 is already good value. $1.2 would be unreasonable. I do see the trend in the charts but I can't see any support from a fundamental side to support a drop towards $1.2.

My point is that all the factors leading to the pullback are temporary things that will not have a permanent impact on the company's future. Of course, I'm holding for the longterm and am not looking at 4 weeks or anything like that.


We'll see.

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Hi Guys,
Nice to see a little jump in HDR today. Hopefully it stays that way. Do any of you guys notice a small bottom in development? Or is it just me? Lol. Taking in the share price movement of today. I think we are starting to see a bottom coming up
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Wow what a gr8 day today. The weekly update report was quite positive as well. Looks like the focus is on the Tiof-5 now. Hopefully, this isn't a false alarm.
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Another article from that top mag, Air Review. IMO broker valuations and sp targets should be taken with a grain of salt but they do give some indication of what may occur, providing the market agrees! HDR is clearly not the market darling it used to be. Not much by way of drilling news either but that's the way it goes.
Macquarie Upgrades Hardman On Price Weakness
December 15 2004
Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)


Macquarie has taken advantage of recent weakness in the Hardman (HDR) share price by upgrading its short-term recommendation on the stock to Outperform from Neutral, while retaining its long-term Neutral rating.

While noting the company will not commence production until early in 2006, the broker suggests there remains significant potential from the ongoing exploration program.

The analyst notes the company is currently in discussions for the timetable for 2005’s exploration program in Mauritania, the announcement of which should give the stock a boost.

In addition, approval for the development of the Tiof and Tevet fields should also provide a catalyst, especially as the broker values the impact of Tevet at 19c.

Earnings have been adjusted slightly, with FY05 down 4% to $0.3m, FY06 up 15% to $2.8m and FY07 up 5% to $4.7m to account for revised exploration commitments.

The broker’s valuation on HDR is $1.53, while its share price target is $2.10.
Copyright Australasian Investment Review.

AIR publishes a weekly magazine. Subscriptions are free at http://www.aireview.com/
Click to expand...

My view is based on TA so around $1.25 is next target- I agree with Tech's analysis above (post #163) but short term may see a little run if it breaks through $1.60 on volume.
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Well, HDR looking better now. Has closed above 1.80 which I think is good support based on H&S neckline.
Tiof turned out better than expected and great flow rate- good news for a change but no production for awhile and 2h of 2005 will be relatively quiet compared to last year. HDR has dropped back from 2.10 after that dramatic rise yesterday.
 

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Hardman Resources

Have a gekko at Hardman Resources - anyone got feedback as to why share price increased lately? This one looks like its about to blow oil again.
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Hdr in my opinion is close to peak. Have been watching and investing for some time, made a good buck. Good performer that has come from 0.50 to current over approximately 3 years.
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Welcome!
That's a good return on HDR that you've got! Looks like it's hitting resistance at 2.10, gone up on good news of recent appraisal work and oil price strength imo. Nothing really new since it got hammered for finding dusters. A big double top/complex head and shoulders towering over this. See GBP, has had a similar run to HDR in early days, some people call it a junior HDR.

This could be a powerful breakout if it gets volume behind it (especially with oil rising), or a double top, or could bounce back and re-test 2.10 as an ascending triangle, possible ranging down to previous neckline at 1.80 too, let's see....chart shows climb from recent low, good for retracement measurements.
 

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Re: TZL and HDR

ozewolf said:
Hdr in my opinion is close to peak. Have been watching and investing for some time, made a good buck. Good performer that has come from 0.50 to current over approximately 3 years.
Click to expand...

Ozewolf,
Well, looks like it's done its stuff for now, that strong run you mentioned is now just a wide ranging pattern. See this article about the court case with Woodside about sharing development costs. Sp hasn't dipped as much as you'd think as a result, oil price seems to have more of an effect on HDR now that the major drilling is over. Might be a chance to pick it up cheap over the next few months if anything goes amiss.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Hardman-sues-Woodside/2005/04/10/1113071854078.html
 
Re: Hardman Resources

but then again so is everthing else in the sector...

come back a bit now.

should have bought OSH

:banghead:
 

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