Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Elliott Wave and the XAO

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OWG this input is exceptional, keep it up.....

My father tracks this closely as well and I have passed this post on to him....as he has significant more understanding of Elliot Waves then I ......

I will get back to you with his comments.....

Love it..... keep it up...
 
How about a simpler Elliott count like this one....




brty
 

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OWG, how's your wave counting going?

I think my earlier count is still valid, but it's stretching it a bit... curious to see any alternate counts.
 
Some interesting action with the AllOrds just under 4600....from the last post:

"There is a remote chance that this final corrective zig-zag has already completed, and is very small compared to the first two zig-zags. Strong evidence of a breakout of the channel would be needed to justify this position."​

The evidence is supportive of the above view, since the end of the recent triangle has been broken also. More later.
 
OzWaveGuy said:
Some interesting action with the AllOrds just under 4600....from the last post:

"There is a remote chance that this final corrective zig-zag has already completed, and is very small compared to the first two zig-zags. Strong evidence of a breakout of the channel would be needed to justify this position."​

The evidence is supportive of the above view, since the end of the recent triangle has been broken also. More later.
Click to expand...

A visual to the above post....
 

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Love your work OWG

Showed it to the old man...he loved it...it confirms his is spot on....so big ta ...

Keep it up mate...this is so useful to have in here...
 
condog said:
Love your work OWG

Showed it to the old man...he loved it...it confirms his is spot on....so big ta ...

Keep it up mate...this is so useful to have in here...
Click to expand...

Thanks Condog.

In answer to your question - "Decline" is correct. The short term outlook is for wave '2' (upwards) to form before another leg down commences - as per last chart. Time is still required for confirmation of the short term wave counts, ideally wave '2' to retrace around 50% and then a return of the downtrend, passing thru the recent lows.
 
Elliott Wave XAO update to the last chart here

The short term XAO action has provided some additional information to consider...namely that 5 waves down is complete or very near completion.

The MACD price oscillator implies that a series of wave 3's down have pushed the oscillator to extremes on the 60min chart. The last wave (v) down has been met with divergence, implying a correction is now at hand.

A break upwards out of a near 'perfect' channel would provide additional confirmation of corrective action (provided it occurs in waves of 3 of course).

Additional Considerations: Since there are 4 touch points of the channel, which can be considered a little too perfect, there is risk that this wave structure isn't complete (eg further sub-division downwards could unfold).
 

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OzWaveGuy said:
The short term XAO action has provided some additional information to consider...namely that 5 waves down is complete or very near completion. The MACD price oscillator implies that a series of wave 3's down have pushed the oscillator to extremes on the 60min chart. The last wave (v) down has been met with divergence, implying a correction is now at hand.

A break upwards out of a near 'perfect' channel would provide additional confirmation of corrective action (provided it occurs in waves of 3 of course).
Click to expand...

I agree with your short term count... but as previously mentioned, I favor that the XAO has bottomed and is in an uptrend and my fovored count is we have a '1' upwards and this wave 'iv' down makes a minor 'a' of a correction over the next few weeks before pushing onwards and upwards again.

In the short term we can't go wrong since we both agree ;), so we'll have to wait and see how my wave 'c' or your '3' down goes.

PS: OWG, Can you eloberate on your first abc in post #246. That's the main bit I'm having trouble interpreting.
 
Whiskers said:
PS: OWG, Can you eloberate on your first abc in post #246. That's the main bit I'm having trouble interpreting.
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Whiskers - In what way? It looks like a 3 wave move to me. The first wave 'b' circle is then broken by the following 'X' wave. Hence, I favored interpreting the XAO move from the March 09 low as corrective because of the presence of 3 waves v's 5.
 
OzWaveGuy said:
Whiskers - In what way? It looks like a 3 wave move to me. The first wave 'b' circle is then broken by the following 'X' wave. Hence, I favored interpreting the XAO move from the March 09 low as corrective because of the presence of 3 waves v's 5.
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Yeah I understand you rational there OWG, but I'm curious about the wave type particularly for the wave 'b' part.
 
XAO - Wave 'C' circle underway

Discussed in the last post was a strong view that a correction was at hand. This correction is underway, and has resisted a confident break thru the 23.2% Fib retrace of the initial 5 waves down.

Whilst it is difficult to estimate corrective behaviors (as there are many types of corrections including the complex types that are doubles and triples), a 23.2% retrace would be a minimum retrace and a 50%-61.8% would be considered 'optimum' for wave 2's. Still too early to tell on the wave shape of this correction, but the wave structure is unfolding in 3's (perhaps a flat correction).

4700-4750 is an area of strong resistance as well as containing a number of previous wave 4's (of different degrees) from the recent leg down and is a strong point of interest for a turn.

Discussed in several posts previously, it should be noted that I'm assuming wave 'C' circle down is underway, but there is still a possibility that Wave 'B' circle is still underway and the leg up from March 09 is all but 1 leg of a much larger 3 leg correction that will last for several years. In any event, the medium term should be down.
 

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XAO - Corrective wave '2' complete or near completion

In the last post here, an upwards correction was discussed with a possible turn in the 4700-4750 range - this would suggest wave '2' up was complete (or one complex leg of it).

As of today, 4700 hasn't been broken and the All Ords is oscillating around the 38.2% retrace level (@4675). Wave '2' has so far been correcting in waves of 3, and it appears that another leg up will be needed for completion. I've simplified the correction to a 3 wave a-b-c, but in reality the correction is more complex with two sets of a double zig-zag (for those who want to understand the finer details).

A push up to 4735 will hit a 50% retrace, and this level also represents fib relationships with previous waves in the current correction as well.

Breaking down out of the corrective channel with a small 5 waves would strongly suggest that the wave 2 correction has completed. The MACD price oscillator (not shown) is also indicating that an extreme may have been reached and could well become divergent should the index continue to climb to the levels discussed above. The next several trading days should provide better insight on the ending formation of wave 2
 

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I believe monday morning has given us a vital clue as to how wave 2 will play out. it looks as if the rise from 4465 is of a complex structure (double zigzag) and the market might continue to rally higher till the end of this week. i believe wave 3 down could start as early as this friday or possibly monday of next week.
 
An inelegant start to Five Waves down?

In the previous post here, a turn for the XAO was discussed at the 4735 area, this has occurred as well as a break of the corrective channel that helps to validate an end to wave ‘2’ up. This validation also requires Fives waves to support further declines, hence, the question now is – Has today's decline occurred in five waves or three?

The initial decline from 4732 doesn’t look like 5 waves at first look. However, if one was to omit the 6 point ‘spike’ after the Tuesday close (as shown in the detail), then a series of five waves can be counted – wave ‘ii’ a flat (3-3-5) and wave ‘iv’ a triangle. Under this count, tomorrow should see a correction back up to retest the lower channel line in the 4696 area before the downtrend resumes.

If today's decline is in three waves, then further corrective moves will unfold and may indicate wave '2' is still underway.
 

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tywo said:
I believe monday morning has given us a vital clue as to how wave 2 will play out. it looks as if the rise from 4465 is of a complex structure (double zigzag) and the market might continue to rally higher till the end of this week. i believe wave 3 down could start as early as this friday or possibly monday of next week.
Click to expand...

I thought so too - now I'm not so convinced based on todays action
 
with today's sell off it seems like wave 2 is over and that we are in the early stages of wave 3. the wave structure for wave 2 better reads as a single zigzag with a subdivided "c" wave.

charts are posted on my blog :)
 

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