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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

M34N said:
Well that was a pretty p***-poor performance today on our market, and now the SPI down over 1.5% with Dow futures down about 0.6%.

Anyone get the feeling the market wants to go down?
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mate put it in perspective...

what is ruling the market now? FEAR........

If you had a crappy position and a acceptable price came your way would you hold to support the market or would you sell to cover your ass?

I don't blame the sellers..... It's a bear market :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

As others have mentioned I was suprised today not to see some gains. I closed long position with minor gains as I think tomorrow could be down again. But im not sure enough to take a short position.

Tomorrow will be an interesting day - If its down tomorrow I recon it will keep going and step down again
 
Re: XAO Analysis

cbacamden said:
As others have mentioned I was suprised today not to see some gains. I closed long position with minor gains as I think tomorrow could be down again. But im not sure enough to take a short position.

Tomorrow will be an interesting day - If its down tomorrow I recon it will keep going and step down again
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Same boat as you, but looks like we should have held on :p: Some fantastic gains over in Europe ...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist made the following statements over the weekend as reported by the press.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i8HpO039TzDraiyELcdq_oI0TmGw

In the final sentence of the above report he states;
The central banks "should lower interest rates to as close to zero as possible," he said.
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This is the same guy who suggested on October 12 (the weekend after the week of the October plunge) that markets could collapse by another 20%.

Now like everybody else who reads an article like this I try to read between the lines. The statement and the final sentence quoted above in particular suggests to me that Central Banks are yet to grasp the gravity of the situation in his view.

I also find it interesting as to why he would go public with such a statement. Surely he would have first raised his concerns in private with central bankers and governments.

This coming from the IMF's chief economist strikes me as very significant and on this it would be interesting to know the views of others (Dow futures ignoring this as I type, up 154 points).
 
Re: XAO Analysis

drsmith said:
Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist made the following statements over the weekend as reported by the press.
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It's perfectly simple: FEAR.

What's the easiest way to have the general population agree with a new strategy/policy/legislation you will unleash in the near future (however bad it may be)? Fear works almost everytime and it's been used for centuries.

For example the recent $700B bailout was a good example - I heard phrases like 'rejection will mean a 2000 point decline the next day', 'martial law will need to be enacted to control the panic' ..... now that it's done - where did all the money go? Who in the main stream media is chasing it up? Is it even reported? It appears to be accepted and many countries are doing it.

Of course these days the difference is the mainstream media are part of the PR machine and will drive the message home (eg FOX news). Even Koshi was spinning the $700B bailout on Sunrise - it's been done for a reason. Greed or control are 2 that come to mind.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Yeah what DID happen to all our bailout money?

Citi is apparently worth less now than the money the Govt put into them a few weeks ago!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Fantastic gains today - especially at the close!

Certainly wish these gains would have eventuated yesterday instead, when I obviously sold out a day too soon :p: Between the 2 I bought I would have made an additional 12%!

A part of me really wants to believe that the worse has been factored in already, and that the bottom is in - but these sorts of gains have to be unhealthy. If the money coming in is just hot-money from punters, surely this is indicative of the potential for all of today's gains to be wiped out tomorrow!

The US markets have had the bounce they had to have, perhaps it's now time to be on the way back down again? :cautious:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Fantastic gains today - especially at the close!

Certainly wish these gains would have eventuated yesterday instead, when I obviously sold out a day too soon :p: Between the 2 I bought I would have made an additional 12%!
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Good show Nyden. cool-smiley-022.gif

The US markets have had the bounce they had to have, perhaps it's now time to be on the way back down again? :cautious:
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yep, the stretch up must be reaching it`s end.The next impacting news is waiting in the wings.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The XAO appears to be in a good short term situation - at the moment.

Assuming there will not be any further progress upwards tomorrow to extend the last leg from today - 5 waves up can be considered complete. A short term correction should occur followed by at least another 5 waves up before more complex wave structures unfold as part of the larger wave (4) correction.

The impending short term downwards correction could possibly be as much as 76.8% of the leg up from last Friday, but the closest short term price support is at 3400 which is a 50% retracement - therefore a possible target to keep an eye on.

Alternatively, this current leg could subdivide further with aggressive upside potential over the next few days - either way, tomorrow morning's opening should light the way.

The S&P500 has also completed 5 waves up, thereby placing the XAO and S&P500 'in sync' over the short term.

The expectation is that this leg up will turn into wave (4) up, possibly reaching 4300 points (exactly a 38.2% retracement of wave (3) down). The shape of this correction is yet to unfold, but a flat or triangle are the top candidates.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Aussie based consumption was not the cause of our boom; I am of course referring to Australian consumer spending. When everyone is making fantastic paper gains on their super, portfolios, and RE investments - they spend. Now that everyone is losing / has lost money, they're no longer spending. Perhaps it's the chicken and the egg :)
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Na, consumption comes first. Any fall, causes a decrease in demand, supply then contracts and so production is toned down.

If you trailed your stop Nyden (moved it to BE), you may have picked up todays gains and anymore that are in the pipeline! :(

All simple RR and with the force that came in on Friday accross the globe, I would say the probability is that further gains would be seen. Someone was buying the stocks and then going to town on the futs (a case where the futs don't always lead, despite most thinking so).
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
If you trailed your stop Nyden (moved it to BE), you may have picked up todays gains and anymore that are in the pipeline! :(
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Absolutely, you're of course right MRC. I obviously majorly regret not staying in; would have multiplied my gains 6-fold ...

Of course, the fact is that I've been out of the market for well over a year, and I'm merely wetting my feet at the moment; just testing the waters :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Absolutely, you're of course right MRC. I obviously majorly regret not staying in; would have multiplied my gains 6-fold ...

Of course, the fact is that I've been out of the market for well over a year, and I'm merely wetting my feet at the moment; just testing the waters :)
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Yeh, that's fair.

Really do need some good trading techniques to be able to extract any cash out of this current environment.

Hard part about getting out, is that it's hard to now time another entry with a good RR. But nothing is concrete in this game. Good you banked some profits. :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Yeh, that's fair.

Really do need some good trading techniques to be able to extract any cash out of this current environment.

Hard part about getting out, is that it's hard to now time another entry with a good RR. But nothing is concrete in this game. Good you banked some profits. :)
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Well, on the bright side it looks as though tonight may be a red night for the world markets; I hope so, at least :p:

... on the not so bright side, looks like BHP could potentially have a great day tomorrow, sure wish I had kept my entry point of $21 :banghead: Always easy to say in hindsight though.

It is somewhat comforting though that we blindly follow the US markets - offers a little foresight occasionally. I just honestly want things to begin to stabilize. 12% gains don't sit too well with me I'm afraid; it's the volatility, not for me!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Mmmmmm, yeh, the markets more just all follow eachother. It's one big dance.

It's working out the correlation between specific markets at any given point in time that will make you the cash. Hence, there are a lot of spread traders out there. You can use the correlations intraday to scalp also if you notice them.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

While i wouldn't declare it as a sign of supreme confidence i think that these late surges in the markets are a small sign of confidence.

If people are prepared to hold overnight rather than pumping and dumping it has to be a good thing, doesn't it?

Hey, in these markets we need some light at the end of the tunnel :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
tech,
it was Boggo who posted the original 3250 fib target (posts#5119 and 5120)
bankit agreed (#5122) and reinforced.
Skyquake (#5123) and logique concurred.
can get the basic idea of fib clusters/confluence from these posts (enough to get you into trouble anyway)
All I did was concur that fib confluence is building strongly at this level as pointed out by bankit.
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appears not many left in the XAO bottom picking contest these days - just the fib cluster gang and tech-a, then its on to OWG's 1500 if 3200 doesn't hold
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Ok like Nyden, I exited with only small gain over last few days- I should have stayed in)

Anyway I went long again yesterday, and am currently showing small gains.

Im concerned about

1 any negative news re US motor industry and
2 a general drift down over next few days

Any thoughts ? Im so unsure at the moment that im thinking of just closing out all xjo positions.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

cbacamden said:
Ok like Nyden, I exited with only small gain over last few days- I should have stayed in)

Anyway I went long again yesterday, and am currently showing small gains.

Im concerned about

1 any negative news re US motor industry and
2 a general drift down over next few days

Any thoughts ? Im so unsure at the moment that im thinking of just closing out all xjo positions.
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Yes, if GM officially goes bankrupt then it could be a catalyst for the next leg down. Or, maybe bankrupt is factored in?

Generally feels like there's more risk being taken at the moment. Money is flowing into the market. A few rounded bottoms and higher highs and lows on specs.

A Christmas rally could go on into Jan before the world completely implodes.

Or not.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

OK - Im takin a risk. The BHP has gapped away from XJO.

So I have gone short BHP and long XJO - hoping whatever happens I will gain when they come together again.

Thanks Guys,
 
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