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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

OzWaveGuy said:
Re the missing wave you mentioned in wave ii. Wave ii is an expanded flat with a c wave failure.

Cheers OWG
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Thanks OWG,

I have not applied Elliott wave much before, but through the texts I have studied I have rarely seen a failed expanded flat, although I acknowledge that these patterns do appear. Especially when wave 3 is in a real hurry to take of and that might be the reason for the truncation.

Below are some charts of what I think might be happening at this point in time. I am not sure if I have used the correct wave degree notations and nomenclature as I am new to this , but will leave as is for now.

As far as impulse waves down in current market, sorry cannot see it in the charts. Looks more corrective to me. In fact I remember Prechter labelled the decline of 2000-2003 as a series of nesting wave 1 and 2 impulses but was wrong, which was surprising because the whole corrective pattern looked like one of the patterns of his book Elliott Wave Principle! He later modified the count! The SP500 count of the last few weeks looks rather complex and outside the norm I know, and I think you will probably disagree with. But this wavecount analysis has been arrived at from combining multipe methods. Let's see if it's a crap count next week or not!

As such I am with $20shoes here and will be turning more to the bulls side this week.

All the best

STONER
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

jeez team,
ever heard of K.I.S.S. - the more complex you make it the less likely people will understand it and the more likelihood of practicioners ever agreeing.
what you appear to be saying is it is going down and may retrace up if we can get some serious good news before finishing the down leg.
KISS EW states :One complete cycle consisting of eight waves is made up of two distinct phases, the motive phase whose waves are denoted by numbers 1-5, and the corrective phase whose waves are denoted by letters a-c.
appologies for the crappy chart but from treefrog's tree this is simply (starting from the the last significant correction - a good a place as any to start from):
blue consolidation period (no wide angle wave)
waves 1-5
first wave of corrective phase (a)
(b) and (c) still coming and then flat (maybe)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Wish it was ALWAYS that easy treefrog.

That would be an ideal world, and we could all know when to buy and sell and be mega rich. But is ain't.

The daily charts I posted simply don't break down into simple waves that easily. Unless the way I have interpreted the Elliott Material is grossly incorrect! This is always possible with me:confused:

Your qaurtely chart analysis is much simpler, but it really depends on what horizon one wishes to trade, doesn't it?



STONER
 
Re: XAO Analysis

T/F

No different to many of the charts shown above.
simply most are in agreeance that we are in a completing wave,be it 5 or a larger wave "A". which will likely see a return of bullish conditions while a corrective "B" in 3 waves completes.Of course within these moves will be moves of lesser degree.
As confusing as it seems to some---- its pretty orderly.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I still reckon this correction is overdone... an aberation, ie it could have been less severe if the US had been more decisive and made certain decisions about the regulation of the markets earlier.

But, it now looks like we got nearly the worst case scenerio with all the commodities futures looking like they have just about gone full circle to unrealistic lows.

But futures can't manipulate the market prices though, can they! :p:

Well, anyway with the big banks and funds etc that were 'allegedly' most responsible copping a thrashing, even if the US stuffs around and doesen't completely close the 'Enron Loophole,' I doubt many will be keen to repeat the dose. So as soon as the credit markets loosen up and life goes on I expect commodities will recover to more sustainable levels leading our market up again.

Getting back to my almost forgotten Standard deviation channels, it seems to confirm that the XAO has over-corrected and looks like it needs to revert northwards for quite some time.

I also note that the XAO, XNJ, XMJ and XMM to mention a few, have unusually gapped down recently also indicating a rise soon to fill them.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
I also note that the XAO, XNJ, XMJ and XMM to mention a few, have unusually gapped down recently also indicating a rise soon to fill them.
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Your Gaps are rubbish Whiskers. JUST RUBBISH!!!

Because of the ASX staggered start there are gaps every day. Just another example of someone taking "text book" TA and not having a clue about there occurrences, probabilities or applications.

All this TA application is laughable. It is no good unless you know how reliable or probable the patterns are. Just because its in a book or accepted "wisdom" doesn't mean it has any use.

RUBBISH.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Your Gaps are rubbish Whiskers. JUST RUBBISH!!!

Because of the ASX staggered start there are gaps every day. Just another example of someone taking "text book" TA and not having a clue about there occurrences, probabilities or applications.

All this TA application is laughable. It is no good unless you know how reliable or probable the patterns are. Just because its in a book or accepted "wisdom" doesn't mean it has any use.

RUBBISH.
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It goes without saying doesn't it? How could anyone possibly put any credence in what Whiskers says when he is continually wrong?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Your Gaps are rubbish Whiskers. JUST RUBBISH!!!

Because of the ASX staggered start there are gaps every day. Just another example of someone taking "text book" TA and not having a clue about there occurrences, probabilities or applications.

All this TA application is laughable. It is no good unless you know how reliable or probable the patterns are. Just because its in a book or accepted "wisdom" doesn't mean it has any use.

RUBBISH.
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luv it TH, luv it.
Bud ya'd gobba abmit tose morning sta' padderns were a dood indugator for da immenent revershal.
sorry about the mumbling - got tongue stuck in cheek
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I sense some sort of rally starting this arvo. Have just bought December calls.

This move down this morning looks like the completion of a 5th wave move breaking out of a 4th wave triangle.

Would be interested in others traders opinions on this. There could be a little joy emerging from the doom and gloom soon


All the Best


STONER
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Stoner,

Yes, I have no TA or FA reason to think anything different but I just have a gut-level feeling a rally is not far off. Considering one small long position. Will enter or not near close. Depends.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

stoner said:
I sense some sort of rally starting this arvo. Have just bought December calls.

This move down this morning looks like the completion of a 5th wave move breaking out of a 4th wave triangle.

Would be interested in others traders opinions on this. There could be a little joy emerging from the doom and gloom soon


All the Best


STONER
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Morning's price action looks like Big W :eek:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Too much data this week for me. Main Pts.
AUS-Tue. NAB Quarterly Business Survey
WED. Skilled Vacancies

US. Tonight- New Home Sales Sept
Tue. Consumer Confidence Oct.
Wed.Durable Goods Orders
Thurs. GDP Sept Qtr. Personal Consumption Sept Qtr
Core Price advanced Sept Qtr
Fri. Personal Income Sept. Personal Spending Sept
Employment Cost Index sept. Qtr


Plus feds speaking in both countries.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hi All,
We all seem to be struggling with our analysis with this severe downtrend, including myself. The attached is an update of my post #5122 which hasn't changed but I have added some more resistance areas in that ccorrespond with the 3260 area. If I am wrong with this target then so be it but it is food for thought.

Bankit.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

bankit said:
Hi All,
We all seem to be struggling with our analysis with this severe downtrend, including myself. The attached is an update of my post #5122 which hasn't changed but I have added some more resistance areas in that ccorrespond with the 3260 area. If I am wrong with this target then so be it but it is food for thought.

Bankit.
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a truckload of fib confluence there bankit - good take: someone talking my lingo at last! (although I did note your earlier post)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
hello,

what was responsible for previous booms and busts prior to futures trading, and is there really any difference

thankyou,
chopbots
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Well, thanks for the revampted format and pleasentry of your posts chops. I like it.

Chops, there has always been booms and busts. Although the following report relates more specifically to commodities the principle is the same and the flow-on effects has certainly exaggerated the booms and busts of the wider markets.

One of the fundamental purposes of futures contracts is to provide price discovery in the ―cash‖ or ―spot‖ markets. Those selling or buying commodities in the ―spot‖ markets rely on futures prices to judge amounts to charge or pay for the delivery of a commodity.

The conclusion that speculation has added a large premium to energy products has been corroborated by many experts...

http://commerce.senate.gov/public/_files/IMGJune3Testimony0.pdf
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Trembling Hand said:
Your Gaps are rubbish Whiskers. JUST RUBBISH!!!

Because of the ASX staggered start there are gaps every day. Just another example of someone taking "text book" TA and not having a clue about there occurrences, probabilities or applications.

All this TA application is laughable. It is no good unless you know how reliable or probable the patterns are. Just because its in a book or accepted "wisdom" doesn't mean it has any use.

RUBBISH.
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TH, er GRUMPY'S back... Grumpy... if you could leave your condescending attitude at home in the dunny and read the post carefully to get the CONTEXT... you might save us all a lot of unpleasentries.

Because of the ASX staggered start there are gaps every day.
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GRUMPY, have a look at the XAO, yes XAO daily chart and tell me how many daily candles have gapped on the XAO in the last year or so?... oh every day heh!!!

I have only noticed two that have not filled the opening gaps during the day and they have been in the last few days.

dhukka said:
It goes without saying doesn't it? How could anyone possibly put any credence in what Whiskers says when he is continually wrong?
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Well if it's not my old mate dhukka thoughtlessly weighing in for another round of mindless insults... just for the sake of it.

treefrog said:
luv it TH, luv it.
Bud ya'd gobba abmit tose morning sta' padderns were a dood indugator for da immenent revershal.
sorry about the mumbling - got tongue stuck in cheek
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WHAT!

treefrog said:
a truckload of fib confluence there bankit - good take: someone talking my lingo at last! (although I did note your earlier post)
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So, fibinacci is good and true but candle formation and gaps are not!!??

You will have to excuse me for not replying with the same mindless insults and 'attempted' ridicule.

But you might like to explain the all powerful and true aspects of fibinacci as opposed to candle formations and gaps.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I know nothing in comparison to most here, so take it easy, but it seems to me that the ASX is so heavily effected by DOW movements that looking at the Australian charts would almost be meaningless.

If you wake up tomorrow and the DOW has lost 15%, we will fall, likewise, if there is a massive, massive rally in the US we will also probably go along with it.

I agree that when everything is calmer our individual stocks have some independence, but at the moment I feel like everyone is waiting to see what is happening overseas, more than here.

Anyway, just my .0001c
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
GRUMPY, have a look at the XAO, yes XAO daily chart and tell me how many daily candles have gapped on the XAO in the last year or so?... oh every day heh!!!

I have only noticed two that have not filled the opening gaps during the day and they have been in the last few days.
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Oh MY GOD!!

This is exactly what I am talking about. This is the XJO chandles with the real open. This is what traders use who play gaps. not the muppet chandle charts that you have. your chart is like I said Rubbish for gaps.

They happen every day.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Well, thanks for the revampted format and pleasentry of your posts chops. I like it.
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Whiskers, I believe you have asked reasonable questions in relation to GAPS on index charts. I have occasionally seen gaps on the XAO, S&P500, NASDAQ etc and the tendency is to fill that gap. It's always an alert for me to consider the market will probably want to cover the gap at a point in the not to distant future. Many other traders use the same technique to label a possible reversal to at least cover the gap in the index.

With the XAO opening in a staggered format until about 10:15am (or thereabouts) then this would most likely not incur gaps on the index because of the incremental opening. Hence a reasonable gap on the open does indicate volatile market action.

If the market did not open in a staggered format eg every stock from A to Z opened at the exact same time, then there would be a GAP every almost every day on the XAO. However, this is not feasible for the ASX to undertake.
 
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