AEV - Avenira Limited

jtb · 9 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

grace said:
Wow, big move based on getting some drill rigs..... Guess I'm just jealous I still don't hold.

Your not Robinson Crusoe Grace

I had been watching those options around 25c like a hawk.
Obviously not the only one.

Back to circling for the mo'

Sean K · 12 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I'm very surprised with the strength of this in this market. Maybe it's just ramping on other forums but seems to have been re-rated perhaps after the Wonarah FS was published. With Rock Phos showing little signs of any dramatic sell off back to the sub $100 level, Wonarah looks to be a goer.

Plenty of news to come this quarter, which will hopefully surprise to the upside. Anything negative in these conditions and it'll be punished.

Hope some ASF'ers have been on this too. Hopefully it continues....

Kimosabi · 12 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas said:
I'm very surprised with the strength of this in this market. Maybe it's just ramping on other forums but seems to have been re-rated perhaps after the Wonarah FS was published. With Rock Phos showing little signs of any dramatic sell off back to the sub $100 level, Wonarah looks to be a goer.

Plenty of news to come this quarter, which will hopefully surprise to the upside. Anything negative in these conditions and it'll be punished.

Hope some ASF'ers have been on this too. Hopefully it continues....

Well, so far MAK has been a great pick for the Stock Picking competition this month, hopefully the good news keeps on coming...

Sean K · 12 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hopefully today's break is a breakaway gap,

although unlikely.....must consolidate some more...

Target from that pennant is about $1.00, but depends on where the top of the pole is. Around the top of the blue line and around the green circle I guestimate.

Fertiiser prices seem to be skyrocketing. Hopefully not too much. Slow and steady wins the race.

IPL is reaping the rewards, hopefully MAK can follow suit if they get this project rocking.

0857 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse raises Incitec (IPL.AU) 12-month target price to A$155.00 from A$109.50 to reflect rising fertilizer prices. "We believe in stronger for longer (phosphate) fertilizer prices," CS says in client note. "This is driven by no new material capacity coming online until CY11/CY12, increased capital construction costs (and therefore higher prices to justify new investment), increased global demand and material increases to the marginal cost of production for nonintegrated players (phosphate rock in particular)." Keeps outperform. "We believe IPL's share price still does not capture 'stronger-for-longer' fertilizer prices or the option value with regards to future growth initiatives." Last trade A$131.00. (ABH)

ta2693 · 12 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I feel the price level is very risky now. About 80c!
Technically speaking, the price jump up with gap after a big rise is a sign to turn around.
Watch out mate.

YOUNG_TRADER · 12 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

YOUNG_TRADER said:
I'm not sure what Yogi saw,

But heres what I see,

MAK

Mkt Structure

Shares
50m + 10m 30c 31/12/08 options
So 50m fully diluted UNTIL 30c
Mkt Cap @ 20c = $10m
Mkt Cap @ 40c = $24m
Mkt Cap @ 60c = $36m

Cash
$2.75m + $3m from opies = $2.75m - $5.75m

Projects

Fraser Iron Project Magenite Iron, 100%, W.A.
5km's to the East Grange (Mkt cap $150m+) has outlined JORC of 458Mt@37% Magenite Fe over 6km's

MAK has 2x4km + 1x1km targets that appear to mirror Grange's and will be drill tested soon.

Tasmanian Tin and Tungsten Tin and Tungsten, 100%, Tasmania

Calims to have the 2nd Largest Tin Inventory of any ASX Listed Stock (See ann's)

Drilling very soon

Summary
Enough cash to see it through this round of exploration,

A similar Magenite Discovery next door to Grange would be huge and almost guarantee a take over from Grange,

The Tin Tunsten looks interseting, needs JORC to back up the claim of 2nd Largest Tin Inventory of any ASX Listed Stock.

Very Spec but highly leveraged to success

Hmmm that post of mine was back in Feb 2007, its interesting to see how far the company has progressed since then

Just wish I held more

grace · 12 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Listening to ABC Country hour just then - graingrowers rep saying that he estimates 1/3 of farmers in Australia won't get finance to grow a crop this year because of rising seed, fertilizer and fuel prices. Some farmers (including us) will just not pay for fertilizer at current prices. It is just not worth putting it on. Just some feedback from the farmers' perspective. I hope MAK makes it though. We will invest when the price is right perhaps as a hedge. The graph looks a bit steep at the moment.

champ2003 · 12 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

grace said:
Listening to ABC Country hour just then - graingrowers rep saying that he estimates 1/3 of farmers in Australia won't get finance to grow a crop this year because of rising seed, fertilizer and fuel prices. Some farmers (including us) will just not pay for fertilizer at current prices. It is just not worth putting it on. Just some feedback from the farmers' perspective. I hope MAK makes it though. We will invest when the price is right perhaps as a hedge. The graph looks a bit steep at the moment.

Just like fuel prices won't be coming down due to rising production costs to get oil out of the ground i don't see how fertilizer is going to get any cheaper as well. The farmers simply have to up the price of the crops/food that they are selling to the retailers.

They have to buy or simply go out of business, it's as simple as that. How much people will pay for food remains to be seen. Farmers will pay and they will also hedge against rising prices by investing into companies like MAK. I know that some farmers are already are doing this.

grace · 12 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

champ2003 said:
Just like fuel prices won't be coming down due to rising production costs to get oil out of the ground i don't see how fertilizer is going to get any cheaper as well. The farmers simply have to up the price of the crops/food that they are selling to the retailers.

They have to buy or simply go out of business, it's as simple as that. How much people will pay for food remains to be seen. Farmers will pay and they will also hedge against rising prices by investing into companies like MAK. I know that some farmers are already are doing this.

I do agree with you, fertilizer prices will stay buoyant. Some farmers do not have a choice whether they use it or not (re soil type, depending on what they are growing etc). We don't use fertilizer every year. Those similar to ourselves may choose not to. In any case, Australia is a net importer of fertilizer and that won't change, so there is a domestic need here for another producer. I imagine IPL will be watching MAK with very big eyes as time goes on.

hangseng · 13 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Don't underestimate the value of sustainability and permaculture.

http://www.attra.org/attra-pub/trans.html#composts

http://www.attra.org/attra-pub/perma.html

Chemical fertilisers used in bulk form are known destructers of the environment. Short term thinking.

I add they have destroyed major reef systems worldwide.

Sean K · 13 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

hangseng said:
Don't underestimate the value of sustainability and permaculture.

http://www.attra.org/attra-pub/trans.html#composts

http://www.attra.org/attra-pub/perma.html

Chemical fertilisers used in bulk form are known destructers of the environment. Short term thinking.

I add they have destroyed major reef systems worldwide.

Yes, we should be careful about the introduction of fertilisers. Perhaps we have some guidelines about their use somewhere?

The only reference to Rock Phosphate I could find in these documents was this:

Significant additions of lime, rock phosphate, and other fertilizers should be guided by soil testing to avoid soil imbalances and unnecessary expenditure on inputs.

And there was no reference to "they have destroyed major reef systems worldwide." Got an independant reference for that?

You got shares in permaculture hangseng.

Sean K · 13 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas said:
Target from that pennant is about $1.00, but depends on where the top of the pole is. Around the top of the blue line and around the green circle I guestimate.

Target hit at 98 cents. Nearing, or at, overbought signals everywhere. More consolidation well due. I'm not concerned about the sell off yesterday at the peak, it still finished well up on the day. A gravestone doji would have been more of a concern. Just traders taking profits IMO and not a reversal. :2twocents

(that'll come back and bite me)

Wilson! · 13 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hey kennas

Looks good huh?
Agree it was just traders taking profits yesterday, and some expecting a dow drop.

I kind of hope it comes back 10c today before pushing on again, so I can grab some more and also for the sake of the chart

It's nice to see a plan come together though I must say

Sean K · 13 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Wilson! said:
It's nice to see a plan come together though I must say

Yeah, although the reason I first bought into this was for Story's Creek and West Southdown/Franklin not Wonarah or Moina - the reasons why it's actually run. Must thank Yogi and YT for pointing it out 12 months ago, although even YT admits we were looking at it from a different angle back then. Still a long way to go for this to be a long term winner though, IMO. Still an explorer and speculative. Anything can happen, and probably will.

meganut · 13 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas said:
Yeah, although the reason I first bought into this was for Story's Creek and West Southdown/Franklin

And to think i was born and raised in Albany and never new this was in the pipeline, what do others think about Grange which should be producing ore concentrate from Wellstead just out of Albany WA shortly?

hangseng · 13 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas said:
Yes, we should be careful about the introduction of fertilisers. Perhaps we have some guidelines about their use somewhere?

The only reference to Rock Phosphate I could find in these documents was this:

And there was no reference to "they have destroyed major reef systems worldwide." Got an independant reference for that?

You got shares in permaculture hangseng.

No no shares in permaculture, just something I have become interested in and have seen effectively applied in viticulture. Lower production rates than fertilisers but far more sustainable, consistent and no environmental harm. Just threw this in for forum chat/discussion so to speak.

As for reef systems you need to do more research, this is well documented where uncontrolled runoff and leaching occurs close to coastal regions. We are also progressively reclaiming large tracks of coastal land and in doing so destroying natures filters, such as mangroves, swamps etc.

Short term I happen to agree that chemical fertilisers will be sought after as food demand increases worldwide.

Sean K · 14 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

hangseng said:
As for reef systems you need to do more research

HS, I look forward to a reference for where Fertilisers have "destroyed major reef systems worldwide". I'm truly interested if this is the case, cheers.

More news out. MAK ann they've appointed some contarctors to get on with the business of taking Wonarah forward. They're moving pretty quick with this which is good to see. Perhaps trying to fast track things while Rock Phos is at such high levels.

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT

WONARAH STUDY MANAGERS APPOINTED
14 February 2008

SUMMARY

Lycopodium Engineering Queensland Pty Ltd and Coffey Mining Pty Ltd have been appointed to manage the studies which will enable Minemakers to progress to feasibility on its phosphate project at Wonarah in the Northern Territory.

Minemakers is pleased to announce that it has appointed independent consultants to undertake the various studies required at Wonarah. Assuming on-going success in these efforts, it is planned that the studies will progress to definitive feasibility status.

Lycopodium Engineering Queensland Pty Ltd will oversee and co-ordinate the studies from its Brisbane office, with specific responsibility for metallurgical and plant design areas.

Coffey Mining Pty Ltd will principally be involved in resource estimation, geology and mine design and planning.

With input from Coffey Mining Pty Ltd on drill and sample planning, Minemakers will be responsible for the drilling and assaying programmes.

chops_a_must · 14 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hmmm...

Am looking at this seriously because of the phosphate leverage. The chart reminds me very much of CNM's.

From a long term perspective, just wondering what earnings really will come from their phosphate projects? They have so many on the go, none of them may get developed properly. I would be only looking at this for a monetary trade, not a long term hold.

Thinking of actually buying Potash Corp in the US. Wheat futures look to be going limit up again after a brief dip... hence the massive move on IPL today.

Surprised WES has not moved on the fertiliser price explosion, given CSBP provides quite a lot of money to them.

In regards to environmental damage. Yeah, the old fertilisers were horrific for the environment. But most places around the world have put in regulations to stop the production of the worst types. And now piggeries and the like are the biggest dangers to a lot of waterways.

But CSBP and Nufarm had some pretty big brains developing some great "friendly" fertilisers in the 90s, which are used by most of the producers today. Which is perhaps why the Chinese were so interested in them. But unfortunately, fertiliser remains a necessary evil.

I expect a massive squeeze on fertiliser prices this year, given drought breaking rain in Oz.

I think I'll stay with the companies that can cash in on this boom now, but will keep a very close eye on MAK.

Sean K · 16 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

chops_a_must said:
Hmmm...

Am looking at this seriously because of the phosphate leverage. The chart reminds me very much of CNM's.

To be honest Chops, I reckon all the big gains have been made on this. 20c to almost $1 in 6 weeks...

Unsustainable IMO.

However, the Phosphate story is a real one, and they are currently sitting on $65b IGV with a fairly simple deposit to mine and ship out. It's just relying on Rock Phos prices to remain robust and the stock should be trading much higher going towards production.

Assume Rock Phos stays at $200/t, they are targetiing 2-3Mtpa. Opex is projected to be under $100/t so 2-3Mtpa @ $100 = $2-300m profit less tax etc etc. Current MC $65m....MC might still have some room to move. Will need to raise quite a bit of cash to get it moving however, and/or maybe a partner. The company reckons they're going to take it forward solo but I think they're having a play with themselves.

Then add in Moina, Story's Ck, Franklin .....

Chart wise, could possible see a trace back to support as indicated, but there's also this new pole and pennant forming giving another rediculous target....

Evangeline · 16 February 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Kennas

How do you work out the target with the pole and pennant formation? Ridiculous though it may be I would be most interested to know>

Thanks
Eva

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