UMike
Klutzing in Thai
- Joined
- 16 January 2007
- Posts
- 1,436
- Reactions
- 1,756
Well LME stocks fell again.
Zinc 86875 -4800
Zinc 86875 -4800
That’s odd, I make it down 30 points to 4100.
Assuming my information is correct, this is a normal counter trend to a strong bullish drive, and you would expect a pull back around this time and price point.
The LME movement in Zinc is currently up 20 points to 3955 (up 0.50%), but had moved down as far as 3890 (-1.14%).
This looks (currently before close) like a reversal to me, and could signal a resumption of the bullish drive.
There is support in time and price as indicated in the attached chart. If this is a reversal as I suspect it is (or near to this level and time), this should yield a strong bullish drive into the 21 May (or beyond – hence have to see how Zinc moves into this date).
This looks (currently before close) like a reversal to me, and could signal a resumption of the bullish drive.
There is support in time and price as indicated in the attached chart. If this is a reversal as I suspect it is (or near to this level and time), this should yield a strong bullish drive into the 21 May (or beyond – hence have to see how Zinc moves into this date).
Attachments
Awwww, Frig, Zinc’s taking a bath – down over 4% - Really got the turning point wrong.
Learned something though – If the price action falls through these key points I’ve been working on like it did last night, it’s telling you something – there’s more to come! (in this case downside).
Actually this is quite an exciting breakthrough for me despite royally stuffing up the forecast. I doubt this will rally into the 21 May now, but should in fact turn here if I’ve got the cycle right. Maybe this is where the support comes in.
This totally destroys the pattern I thought I was seeing though. Oh, well, back to the drawing board – but certainly learned something here…
Fun, isn’t it?
Mag (wiping egg from face… Hahaha).
Learned something though – If the price action falls through these key points I’ve been working on like it did last night, it’s telling you something – there’s more to come! (in this case downside).
Actually this is quite an exciting breakthrough for me despite royally stuffing up the forecast. I doubt this will rally into the 21 May now, but should in fact turn here if I’ve got the cycle right. Maybe this is where the support comes in.
This totally destroys the pattern I thought I was seeing though. Oh, well, back to the drawing board – but certainly learned something here…
Fun, isn’t it?
Mag (wiping egg from face… Hahaha).
Its not really hard to predict base metal prices.
Copper price down, pulling zinc price down as well. Zinc should be supported at $3600/mt level.
I already asked my clients to take profit on zinc at $4000/mt level, and to short copper (when copper is at $7650/mt). Of course not all of them listen to me, too bad for them.
Copper price down, pulling zinc price down as well. Zinc should be supported at $3600/mt level.
I already asked my clients to take profit on zinc at $4000/mt level, and to short copper (when copper is at $7650/mt). Of course not all of them listen to me, too bad for them.
- Joined
- 15 November 2006
- Posts
- 119
- Reactions
- 0
I don't see any of your recent postings here suggesting that metal or zinc will come down like the last 2 days, in fact you sounded quite bullish until today. Same as many of us.Its not really hard to predict base metal prices.
Copper price down, pulling zinc price down as well. Zinc should be supported at $3600/mt level.
I already asked my clients to take profit on zinc at $4000/mt level, and to short copper (when copper is at $7650/mt). Of course not all of them listen to me, too bad for them.
I don't see any of your recent postings here suggesting that metal or zinc will come down like the last 2 days, in fact you sounded quite bullish until today. Same as many of us.
Yeh sounds like hes a hindsight trader.
Nothing wrong with that, actually its good for the ego because your always right.
But in terms of profitability well thats another story LOL
explod
explod
- Joined
- 4 March 2007
- Posts
- 7,341
- Reactions
- 1,197
I do not have any concern with the pullback, this is a healthy correction at a point where the next moves up will create considerable attention. From the technical perspective on your own chart the pull back is still within the recent uptrend channel. I think the dip has more to do with a general market move caused by some currency ramping by the Federal Reserve .............hooooowever we will see what pans out
I don't see any of your recent postings here suggesting that metal or zinc will come down like the last 2 days, in fact you sounded quite bullish until today. Same as many of us.
I posted it in the copper thread, its all there.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
Brend, what do you think the bottom will be for Zinc? And Copper?
Previously I actually intend to ask my clients to go long on zinc if it goes down to $3600, (now is $3645). If $3600 is not well-supported, I'll only recommend a buy at $3250. (No point buying zinc if copper still falling).
With the copper price down $600/mt within a week, some buying interest starts to come in. I beg to differ, copper is in for a deep pit. Inventory level might stop falling, this is my guess, on the assumption that it is the funds are the ones manipulating the inventory level. So when price starts to fall, funds see no incentive to draw out the inventory anymore. Let us see if this is true...
Since I'll not ask my clients to short zinc, will only recommend them to buy on dips ($3200 level). But I still want them to earn some money while waiting for the price to fall.
So today I'm recommending my clients to sell Zinc Put option, strike $3200, Jun07.
This means that if zinc price (prompt date: Jun07) does not fall to $3200/mt by 6 Jun 07, my clients will get to keep the premium. If the zinc falls below $3200 by 6 Jun 07, they will have a long position at $3200. Having a long position at $3200 is a good level, in my view.
- Joined
- 20 November 2005
- Posts
- 787
- Reactions
- 92
Nice reversal off the 78.6% retracement level to complete -v of -c of -B or -2. The decline back below the wave-a high invalidates any impulsive interpretation. Massive Head & Shoulders top on weekly chart where this recent advance was the RS.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
Must have been thinking about Zinc at the same time, i was just admiring your H&S prediction coming true on kitco when i came back to ASF and saw your post.
Might be some shorting opps on zinc stocks soon.
Cheers,
Might be some shorting opps on zinc stocks soon.
Cheers,
I believe copper price will rebound slightly and then plunge down again. Still advising my clients to short copper on rebound.
As for buying zinc, I had advised my clients to hold back first, until copper price is stable. But I will not ask them to short zinc.
Copper futures fell sharply Thursday in technically oriented trading, with
some of the decline blamed on nervousness about weekly copper inventory data
due out of China on Friday, analysts said.
The most-active July copper contract tumbled 12 cents to settle at $3.1805
per pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Much of the selling was technically oriented, since otherwise the day's main
news report - a 16.2% jump in April new-home sales to an annualized rate of
981,000 - should have been supportive, traders said.
Technically, selling in July copper accelerated as the market fell through
the $3.2285 area. This was a roughly six-week low hit one week ago, then a
double-bottom was formed on the daily charts when copper held at $3.2300
Friday.
When this area failed around late-morning, the market fell by roughly a dime
in less than half an hour. The slide finally stopped at $3.1725, copper's
weakest level since April 2, when it bottomed at $3.1050.
LME copper has fallen below $7,000 a metric ton. If the metal closes below
this two sessions in a row, it could be "quite serious" technically, said Man
Financial analyst Edward Meir.
A daily research report from the London office of Triland Metals said initial
forays toward $7,200 met support, helped in part by the new-home sales data.
However, liquidation in gold and bonds "later spilled over into the base metals
sector," resulting in a break of support around $7,090 to $7,095.
Meir blamed some of the weakness on LME copper - which tends to lead Comex -
following nickel lower. Meir also noted that a report from the World Bureau of
Metal Statistics on Wednesday, showing a 99,000-metric-ton global copper-market
surplus during the first quarter, may have "kept a lid" on the market.
"And there is a bit of nervousness about the Shanghai numbers tomorrow," Meir
said.
Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have risen 14,287 and 17,449 metric
tons the last two weeks. Analysts have been saying lately this has prompted
some concerns about supplies starting to build in the country after strong
imports during the first few months of the year.
As for buying zinc, I had advised my clients to hold back first, until copper price is stable. But I will not ask them to short zinc.
Copper futures fell sharply Thursday in technically oriented trading, with
some of the decline blamed on nervousness about weekly copper inventory data
due out of China on Friday, analysts said.
The most-active July copper contract tumbled 12 cents to settle at $3.1805
per pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Much of the selling was technically oriented, since otherwise the day's main
news report - a 16.2% jump in April new-home sales to an annualized rate of
981,000 - should have been supportive, traders said.
Technically, selling in July copper accelerated as the market fell through
the $3.2285 area. This was a roughly six-week low hit one week ago, then a
double-bottom was formed on the daily charts when copper held at $3.2300
Friday.
When this area failed around late-morning, the market fell by roughly a dime
in less than half an hour. The slide finally stopped at $3.1725, copper's
weakest level since April 2, when it bottomed at $3.1050.
LME copper has fallen below $7,000 a metric ton. If the metal closes below
this two sessions in a row, it could be "quite serious" technically, said Man
Financial analyst Edward Meir.
A daily research report from the London office of Triland Metals said initial
forays toward $7,200 met support, helped in part by the new-home sales data.
However, liquidation in gold and bonds "later spilled over into the base metals
sector," resulting in a break of support around $7,090 to $7,095.
Meir blamed some of the weakness on LME copper - which tends to lead Comex -
following nickel lower. Meir also noted that a report from the World Bureau of
Metal Statistics on Wednesday, showing a 99,000-metric-ton global copper-market
surplus during the first quarter, may have "kept a lid" on the market.
"And there is a bit of nervousness about the Shanghai numbers tomorrow," Meir
said.
Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have risen 14,287 and 17,449 metric
tons the last two weeks. Analysts have been saying lately this has prompted
some concerns about supplies starting to build in the country after strong
imports during the first few months of the year.
- Joined
- 29 January 2006
- Posts
- 7,217
- Reactions
- 4,438
Magdoran may have got the short term chart wrong, but his medium term direction is a very high probability play on fundamental grounds.
Zinc inventories are back at cyclical lows, yet the zinc price is some 25% off its peak last year.
What occurred over the past 6 months was that much surplus zinc was sold into historically high prices, concurrent with arbitrage selloffs from China. As a result available zinc has tightened considerably and cancellation percentages are climbing.
A few more weeks of this trend will see zinc regain its former highs, and continue north.
An important distinction between copper and zinc price trends should be made on the basis that copper prices declined well after inventories had built up. Yet zinc plunged rapidly as soon as inventories turned.
Moreover, while copper inventories increased many hundred percent from its cyclical lows, zinc inventories barely increased a third.
The lesson we should have learned by now is that in such a strong market the consolidation phase "drains" surplus metal, so the next upleg becomes more powerful and enduring: Note this is well demonstrated by nickel which led the base metal price boom and continues to power on at logically unsustainable levels.
I expect copper has the potential to follow in nickel's footsteps, although the supply response is mooted to overcome any demand shortfalls. My point here being that what is "mooted" has been mooted before, to the detriment of the mooters, so to speak!
Zinc inventories are back at cyclical lows, yet the zinc price is some 25% off its peak last year.
What occurred over the past 6 months was that much surplus zinc was sold into historically high prices, concurrent with arbitrage selloffs from China. As a result available zinc has tightened considerably and cancellation percentages are climbing.
A few more weeks of this trend will see zinc regain its former highs, and continue north.
An important distinction between copper and zinc price trends should be made on the basis that copper prices declined well after inventories had built up. Yet zinc plunged rapidly as soon as inventories turned.
Moreover, while copper inventories increased many hundred percent from its cyclical lows, zinc inventories barely increased a third.
The lesson we should have learned by now is that in such a strong market the consolidation phase "drains" surplus metal, so the next upleg becomes more powerful and enduring: Note this is well demonstrated by nickel which led the base metal price boom and continues to power on at logically unsustainable levels.
I expect copper has the potential to follow in nickel's footsteps, although the supply response is mooted to overcome any demand shortfalls. My point here being that what is "mooted" has been mooted before, to the detriment of the mooters, so to speak!
- Joined
- 6 August 2006
- Posts
- 280
- Reactions
- 0
Mmmm
The article below is partial an extract from "Resource Investor" website this evening.....it seems to confirm what zinc-bulls want to hear....ie, that China now a net importer of zinc, and that the high exports Oct to Mar were largely a response to the announcement of introduction of the 5% export tax.
How the further export tax increase to 10% for lower grade zinc influences Chinese domestic prices, and hence demand for imports will be interesting, particularly as this is occurring at a time when new regulations to rein in small/inefficient/polluting zinc mining & smelting are being put in place......
Zinc concentrate import figures would help to get a fuller picture...but from reports I have read recently, demand is high.
Post this announcement Zn currently down 1.4% on LME, vs Cu -3%
China's Copper Imports in April down 8.25% From March
By Interfax-China
25 May 2007 at 09:14 AM GMT-04:00
SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China's Customs General Administration today released statistics of base metal imports and exports during the first four months of the year.
Refined copper imports in the first four months of the year totalled 669,697 tonnes, ballooning 141.7% from same period last year. Imports in April soared 161.5% from the same month last year to 186,212 tonnes, but fell 8.25% from March's level of 202,955 tonnes.
Refined zinc exports in April were 13,121 tonnes, representing a fall of 31.0% from the same month last year and a 60.97% decline from the previous month due to the 5% export tax levied on refined zinc effective last November as well as stronger domestic prices than on the London Metal Exchange.
Imports of refined zinc jumped 54.1% year-on-year to 19,679 tonnes in April. China became a net importer of refined zinc in April after it maintained net export status for nearly six months since October last year.
The article below is partial an extract from "Resource Investor" website this evening.....it seems to confirm what zinc-bulls want to hear....ie, that China now a net importer of zinc, and that the high exports Oct to Mar were largely a response to the announcement of introduction of the 5% export tax.
How the further export tax increase to 10% for lower grade zinc influences Chinese domestic prices, and hence demand for imports will be interesting, particularly as this is occurring at a time when new regulations to rein in small/inefficient/polluting zinc mining & smelting are being put in place......
Zinc concentrate import figures would help to get a fuller picture...but from reports I have read recently, demand is high.
Post this announcement Zn currently down 1.4% on LME, vs Cu -3%
China's Copper Imports in April down 8.25% From March
By Interfax-China
25 May 2007 at 09:14 AM GMT-04:00
SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China's Customs General Administration today released statistics of base metal imports and exports during the first four months of the year.
Refined copper imports in the first four months of the year totalled 669,697 tonnes, ballooning 141.7% from same period last year. Imports in April soared 161.5% from the same month last year to 186,212 tonnes, but fell 8.25% from March's level of 202,955 tonnes.
Refined zinc exports in April were 13,121 tonnes, representing a fall of 31.0% from the same month last year and a 60.97% decline from the previous month due to the 5% export tax levied on refined zinc effective last November as well as stronger domestic prices than on the London Metal Exchange.
Imports of refined zinc jumped 54.1% year-on-year to 19,679 tonnes in April. China became a net importer of refined zinc in April after it maintained net export status for nearly six months since October last year.
- Joined
- 6 August 2006
- Posts
- 280
- Reactions
- 0
Further to the above post.....MetalInsider today reports thatover the period of net-exports Oct>March........
"It’s important to remember that China has remained a consistent net importer of zinc alloy in that period. Cumulative net imports of alloy were 52,416t in Jan-Apr 07, down from 71,000t in the same four-month period of 2006.
The country’s hunger for zinc concentrates, meanwhile, continues to grow. Imports hit a fresh monthly high of 169,407t (bulk weight) in April, while cumulative imports in the Jan-Apr period were 533,725t, more than double the 225,000t imported in the same period of 2006."
MetalInsider is definitely a source worth subscribing to....a free & very comprehensive daily emailed newsletter for nix from LME's Sucden
"It’s important to remember that China has remained a consistent net importer of zinc alloy in that period. Cumulative net imports of alloy were 52,416t in Jan-Apr 07, down from 71,000t in the same four-month period of 2006.
The country’s hunger for zinc concentrates, meanwhile, continues to grow. Imports hit a fresh monthly high of 169,407t (bulk weight) in April, while cumulative imports in the Jan-Apr period were 533,725t, more than double the 225,000t imported in the same period of 2006."
MetalInsider is definitely a source worth subscribing to....a free & very comprehensive daily emailed newsletter for nix from LME's Sucden
- Joined
- 29 January 2006
- Posts
- 7,217
- Reactions
- 4,438
Metals had their strongest day for a long time, overnight: Zinc up about 6% and copper a shade more.
I know Radge does some good work with his charts, but unintelligible comments are not my cup of tea. Was he suggesting up or down near term: I guess he knows, but not saying is as useful as posting the chart itself.
I remain bullish, and even more so given the inability of technical traders to trash base metals thus far into May.
I know Radge does some good work with his charts, but unintelligible comments are not my cup of tea. Was he suggesting up or down near term: I guess he knows, but not saying is as useful as posting the chart itself.
I remain bullish, and even more so given the inability of technical traders to trash base metals thus far into May.
Similar threads
