Zinc - The Metal for 2007

BREND · 22 March 2007

Halba said:
Hi Brend. Below is the article regarding zinc supply increases

Thanks Halba, but I don't believe.

I only look at real facts, statistics, not opinions.

According to report from Beijing Customs, it is a fact, that exports of zinc out of China has been strong, and it is still rising every month.

vishalt · 22 March 2007

Zinc steadily declining but the only reason ZFX is holding at its current level is because of the upcoming dividend.

Wish it'd fall to 15/14.50 so I can buy more :/

misterS · 22 March 2007

catihouse - yeah sorry mixed up ex div 30/3 with record date 5/4

BREND · 22 March 2007

Zinc inventory is up 4250mt today. This is crazy, China merchants simply dump all the excess zinc into LME.

Moneybags · 22 March 2007

vishalt said:
Zinc steadily declining but the only reason ZFX is holding at its current level is because of the upcoming dividend.

Wish it'd fall to 15/14.50 so I can buy more :/

You may get your wish Vishalt, as soon as the record date has been reached. I reckon there will be heaps dumped straight after especially if LME stocks keep building. I'm getting out of Zinc for now........just doesn't look good.

MB

nomore4s · 22 March 2007

Moneybags said:
You may get your wish Vishalt, as soon as the record date has been reached. I reckon there will be heaps dumped straight after especially if LME stocks keep building. I'm getting out of Zinc for now........just doesn't look good.

MB

I agree MB, was looking to buy ZFX at around $16 for the D/E but the chart is looking weak and with zinc not looking so good ZFX could really struggle after D/E date so I'm not willing to take the chance.

vishalt · 22 March 2007

I suppose that's a shrieking possibility lads, might not build on my current share base of ZFX till after it drops, I still believe the fundamentals are there - just volatile in the short term.

Moneybags · 22 March 2007

vishalt said:
I suppose that's a shrieking possibility lads, might not build on my current share base of ZFX till after it drops, I still believe the fundamentals are there - just volatile in the short term.

Vishalt,

If you have a look at other Zincers charts PEM,CBH,KZL,INL, they have peaked around Dec and are now heading down due to POZ. JML is looking great but an exception and TZN has just reversed but for how long. ZFX is bearish but has held up not too bad and it is my opinion that low PE and dividend coming that have helped in that regard.

Not long until we'll know anyway.

MB

Freeballinginawetsuit · 23 March 2007

vishalt said:
I suppose that's a shrieking possibility lads, might not build on my current share base of ZFX till after it drops, I still believe the fundamentals are there - just volatile in the short term.

Volitility?, doubt that!

Speculation is almost gone in the Zincers and even the total exit would only see further marginal falls.

Zinc dynamics are still thier............just not as artificially inflated ATM .

vishalt · 23 March 2007

Thanks for the comments.

Ta for the small-cap Zinc list there Moneybags, i'm looking into them! Do you hold any of them?

Cheers again!

Moneybags · 23 March 2007

vishalt said:
Thanks for the comments.

Ta for the small-cap Zinc list there Moneybags, i'm looking into them! Do you hold any of them?

Cheers again!

Vishalt,

I sold the bulk of my INL yesterday, still have a small parcel.

I am holding KZL but minor amount.

I watch all the Zincers out of interest but my favs are BSM & JML........both have plenty of upside ( my opinion only )

MB

rwkni1 · 28 March 2007

Noticed there was a 10,000 tonne increase in cancelled warrants on Monday which was encouraging. Effectively doubled cancelled warrants from 8kt to 18kt - currently just over 16kt. Very difficult to pick a trend in this zinc market.

Col Lector · 28 March 2007

Citigroup has its eyes on Zinifex apparently......price may be being supported by someone accumulating as we speak; or maybe they are waiting for the ex-div bailout to pounce!
This extract from article in The Australian

Big is better as resources hit-list embraces BHP, Rio
Andrew Trounson
March 27, 2007

RESOURCE companies dominate a list of potential takeover targets compiled by broker Citigroup, with even the venerable behemoths BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto having the indignity of being targets.
With private equity consortiums globally pursuing mammoth, largely debt-funded takeovers, Citigroup has picked out companies with plentiful pre-tax earnings which can service an acquirer's interest payments for an entirely debt-funded bid.
BHP and Rio are generating so much cash that, on an 8 per cent cost of debt, raiders could pay premiums of 90 per cent-plus for the global giants that are already capitalised at $163 billion and $103 billion, respectively.

But zinc major Zinifex is the most attractive of the big resources plays, with sufficient cash generation to support a takeover at a 300 per cent premium.........

BREND · 31 March 2007

Experts are always saying that zinc price will rise because supply of zinc at LME is already so low. I do not buy that story, China is a huge exporter of zinc, if China does not need the zinc, why should I be optimistics about this metal.

The chart is still showing a downtrend for zinc.

Had advised clients to short zinc, margin required for 1 lot is USD9,500

http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/03/short-1-lot-of-zinc.html

Halba · 31 March 2007

Hi brend. Zinc looks like it is in a slump both technically and fundamentally. One thinks that if China required zinc it would have gone up by now. But it hasn't.

michael_selway · 31 March 2007

Col Lector said:
Citigroup has its eyes on Zinifex apparently......price may be being supported by someone accumulating as we speak; or maybe they are waiting for the ex-div bailout to pounce!
This extract from article in The Australian

Big is better as resources hit-list embraces BHP, Rio
Andrew Trounson
March 27, 2007

RESOURCE companies dominate a list of potential takeover targets compiled by broker Citigroup, with even the venerable behemoths BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto having the indignity of being targets.
With private equity consortiums globally pursuing mammoth, largely debt-funded takeovers, Citigroup has picked out companies with plentiful pre-tax earnings which can service an acquirer's interest payments for an entirely debt-funded bid.
BHP and Rio are generating so much cash that, on an 8 per cent cost of debt, raiders could pay premiums of 90 per cent-plus for the global giants that are already capitalised at $163 billion and $103 billion, respectively.

But zinc major Zinifex is the most attractive of the big resources plays, with sufficient cash generation to support a takeover at a 300 per cent premium.........

Dropped to 90000 on warrant though!

http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx

thx

MS

rwkni1 · 2 April 2007

Halba said:
Hi brend. Zinc looks like it is in a slump both technically and fundamentally. One thinks that if China required zinc it would have gone up by now. But it hasn't.

I don't think its a story of whether or not china 'requires' zinc - they're still easily the largest consumer of the metal in the world and growing. I think the question is how much old high-cost (or new for that matter) chinese capacity has come on line over the past 12 months as a result of the higher-prices, and what impact will this have on the global supply-demand balance.

BREND · 2 April 2007

Zinc price is down USD70 now.

vishalt · 4 April 2007

Zinc just broke past resistance @ 1.50.

BREND · 4 April 2007

vishalt said:
Zinc just broke past resistance @ 1.50.

You are right, looks like zinc is turning from downtrend to uptrend. Let's see if this turn is successful.

Zinc - The Metal for 2007

BREND

vishalt

misterS

BREND

Moneybags

nomore4s

Commonsense isn't that common

vishalt

Moneybags

Freeballinginawetsuit

vishalt

Moneybags

rwkni1

Col Lector

BREND

Halba

michael_selway

Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

rwkni1

BREND

vishalt

BREND

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