Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

ZGL - Zicom Group

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Clansman said:
He isn't obliged to divulge when he no longer holds stocks but in this case was happy to pass on the info.

Seems a pretty straight shooter, I just don't think people listen completely to what is said.
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Yeah I agree, you have to take responsibility yourself for any investment. I think people also followed blindly based on other stocks he had mentioned, some of which had some brilliant run-ups.
 
skc said:
Last year FY NPAT was S$14m. A 60% drop means S$5.6m or ~A$4m, or 1.9cps. So 10c would definitely be a bargain (famous last words) and you'd expect accumulation to start before the mid teens.

Confirmed order is S$41m as at 31 Dec, with no information on how long this stretches out for. Revenue last year was S$147m so the $41m looks a bit thin even if it's all for the next 6 months. But the profit warning should have accounted for that already.

There must be a leading indicator somewhere for companies like ZGL and MCE - both marine/ship building related, long lead time, high capital intensive that are massively profitbale in good times but lag the cycle by 12-24 months... Are there stats for worldwide ship tonnage built or something like that?
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Skc,

Some links that maybe of interest

http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/transportation-logistics/global-shipping-benchmarking-analysis-2011.jhtml

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1902865,00.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index

http://m.guardian.co.uk/business/ec...g-index-25-year-low?cat=business&type=article

Interesting reading and something to take into account with ZGL.

Cheers

Oddson
 
skc said:
Some good links there. Thanks Oddson.

But I was thinking something really simple. Like watching the order books of several major shipbuilders in SE Asia. Chances are ZGL's quote book will grow with a 6 months lag, and hopefully their order book will grow a year or two after that.
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I did notice in my research that it is possible to purchase shipping industry reports which includes order books from all major shipyards around the world, only problem was that the report cost approx GBP500.

A cyclical business is a good investment as long as it is run by conservative management and one can understand the cycle. My very limited understanding of the shipping industry cycle is that there is overcapacity at the moment which means new ship orders is unlikely. As you have pointed out ZGL order book will have a 6 month lag on new ship orders, this means I suspect it is not worth looking at for a few years.

I learnt something new anyway - I had never heard of the Baltic Dry Index.
 
Funny old world we live in, ILU announce a downgrade due to the world's economy going to hell in a handbasket, these guys expect sustained growth...
 
robusta said:
Funny old world we live in, ILU announce a downgrade due to the world's economy going to hell in a handbasket, these guys expect sustained growth...
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I'm just messing about with some market scans and this company came up. Got to have a laugh Robusta - "Zicom" not "Zircon" - this mob has nothing to do with zircon. They make deck winches for ships, cement mixers and precision engineering. Amazingly cyclical share price. Will go back and read through this thread.
 
tinhat said:
I'm just messing about with some market scans and this company came up. Got to have a laugh Robusta - "Zicom" not "Zircon" - this mob has nothing to do with zircon. They make deck winches for ships, cement mixers and precision engineering. Amazingly cyclical share price. Will go back and read through this thread.
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I know I own shares in this business, I took a bit of a capital loss previously but this time around bought in at $0.185 a while ago. I like the way the continue with the main business while investing in disruptive technologies all while maintaining a strong balance sheet.
 
I got into ZGL also a few months back. Originally I traded it only from a Tech/A point of view for a few percent.
However having a look at its past and where its going I decided to hold on.
I bought in at 0.18 and now hold it as a longterm trade.
Will be nice even if it goes back to some of the mediocre historic levels.

A strong AUD has punished quite a few companies so will be interesting to see what happens if the AUD loses some of its lustre (aside from internal improvements). With so many countries debasing theirs, not sure what will happen to AUD.
 
zac said:
A strong AUD has punished quite a few companies so will be interesting to see what happens if the AUD loses some of its lustre (aside from internal improvements). With so many countries debasing theirs, not sure what will happen to AUD.
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I might be missing something - but what does the AUD have to do with their business? I thought they reported in Singapore dollars.
 
robusta said:
I know I own shares in this business, I took a bit of a capital loss previously but this time around bought in at $0.185 a while ago. I like the way the continue with the main business while investing in disruptive technologies all while maintaining a strong balance sheet.
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OK, that became apparent once I went back and read through the thread. A bit of a strange comment that you made comparing Iluka to Zicom even though Iluka was the canary in the mine back in May with regard to the mining sector stocks.

Anyway, the chart has me intrigued. It looks like a company that might be fun to try and trend trade except that it is so thinly traded (av daily $35,000) which might explain why it has ramped up and fallen so suddenly in the past.

Looking back over its history, except for a couple of lumpy results surprising to the upside, EPS growth has been flat for this company over the past twelve years. Furthermore, looking over the same period the share price has really only moved sideways. Although it makes higher highs and higher lows over time, overall the price hasn't kept up with inflation. A lot of volatility for no gain.

At first glance of the historical figures, this looks like a company that keeps pouring earnings back into investment but with not much to show for it in terms of earnings growth. I guess one needs to hope that their disruptive technologies might one day disrupt their earnings growth to the upside. At a quick glance at their last annual report, I wouldn't have a clue about the advanced technology/equipment stuff they are doing.

Anyway, an intriguing company that I will keep on my watch list.
 
Yeah I know what you mean my comment sounds a little strange now but back then ILU issued a dire profit warning due to deterioration of the global economy within days Zicom issued a positive forecast for the future of the deep sea energy sector.

I hold shares in both by the way.
 
Funny we were talking about the outlook for these guy's recently, the slowdown has made the share price attractive IMO.

Hope the bring back the buy back.
 
Sold out of ZGL today, I was reading how the US may become a net oil exporter in the future, probably not a long term positive for the deep sea oil industry, also freeing up some cash in my super.
 
Good run up the last two days on increased volume. Leaky ship?
Apparently the medical device side of the business should be in profit this year and could be a good growth business going forward.
Might be improvement in sales of cement mixers with the improvements in the construction industry.
Very diverse company.
 
Confirmed Orders

We have a total of S$56.0m (30 June 2012: S$51.5m) outstanding confirmed orders in hand as at 30 June 2013. A breakdown of these outstanding confirmed orders is as follows:-

Offshore Marine, Oil & Gas Machinery 37M
Construction Equipment 12.3M
Precision Engineering & Automation 6.5M
Industrial & Mobile Hydraulics 0.2M
Total = 56.0 Million

These outstanding orders are scheduled for delivery in the financial year 2014. Prospects for on-going orders continue to be robust.

ZGLs.gif
 
After a speeding ticket and a retrace on low volume yesterday, heading back up again today.
From the profit warning in July last year before the full year results, if you add back the delayed orders and the losses on the bio-tech which is forecast to be a profit this year, shouldn't be to hard to get a full year profit of $10m, which would put us on a PE of 6.
Considering ZGL also has $20m cash, seems very cheap.
 
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