YOU owe $56k! (Australia's shocking credit card debt)

[robots]

What is everyone perspective on the merits of a contrarian view on the state of the economy?

We all know that most mainstream economists, who studied Keynesian economics, never saw this coming.

Alternatives economists, including Steve Keen, did but was obviously ignored before then, and is still now.

In my opinion, it's very difficult to be one, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is eventually right. I certainly know the "track" record of these mainstream economists.


Which is probably true as his views are not accepted in the business or political world. Not only that, it is also impractical for the big financial firms to "act" on his advices. There are simply too much vested interests out there to take a contrary view. It's much easier to follow the herd than going against it.

hello,

what actually did Associate Professor Keen get right?

interest rates? wrong

property prices? wrong

sell his property because advised everybody not to have debt? wrong

talk about debt levels? right

provide data about debt? right

operate a blog? right

missed any

thankyou
robots

 

[Temjin]

And what did the mainstream economists got right?

Interest rates, wrong.

Stock market, wrong.

No recession, wrong.

Budget Deficit under control, wrong.

No need to bailout banks, wrong. (Yes, the Australian government did some form of bailout through other regulations)

My post was also about other contrarians (of economists/bloggers/entreprenaurs) including Nouriel Roubini, David Rosenberg, Mish Shedlock, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Bill Gross, Barry Ritholtz, etc. Their views were completely against the mainstream's consensus and all considered "wrong" before the GFC. More or less, they based their view on the same theory as Steve Keen has preached, that is dangerous level of private/public debt and massive over-leveraging. It's a classic ponzi scheme where sooner or later it will collapse. Australia and Canada have barely de-leveraged yet (Except commercial properties) largely thanks to low interest rates and government residential housing incentives.

But of course, I don't expect you to give a crap due to your extreme cult-like confirmation bias. It's all paradise in Australia anyway and any opposing view will be taken with a grain of salt.
​

 

[Krusty the Klown]

I would wager if advertising of credit cards was banned, this per capita CC debt would start dropping consistently over time and get back to a time where personal non-mortgage debt was virtually non-existent like it was 50 years ago.

Consumer credit is a commodity that is advertised and sold to the public like a big screen TV or McDonalds.

 

[Smurf1976]

What is everyone perspective on the merits of a contrarian view on the state of the economy?

We all know that most mainstream economists, who studied Keynesian economics, never saw this coming.

Alternatives economists, including Steve Keen, did but was obviously ignored before then, and is still now.

I first heard about the problems with the US mortgage institutions, General Motors, hedge funds and the like through an article I read in early 2002. And that article was written by someone who claimed not to be an economist or to have ever formally studied economics, just a concerned citizen.

The information was certainly out there for those willing to keep an open mind. Just like lots of other information is out there for those with an open mind...

 

[condog]

History repeats on average with a major recession every 70 years or so....so my very cynical tongue in cheek view is that every 70 years or so the contrarian view will be correct, then for 69 years or less they will be wrong, except for the odd corrections.....

The further from the last recession the more chance they have of being correct...:

By the way didnt Proffessor K make a bet that he would walk to Broken Hill defore June 2009 if mean Australian property prices had not dropped by 50%.

Perhaps thats why hes a bit quieter, hes on his way to broken hill....man the easern seaboard wasnt big enough for him, imagine when he walks in to Broken Hill Hotel and starts telling the miners they all gunna go broke.... now it would be worth the flight costs to see that....LOL

That would make the Danny Green fight seem tame....

Man I knw which colored galsses I want to try and live my life through and it aint proffessor K's.... perhaps one day we will all be wrong and he will be right, sitting there with his pile of burried cash worth nothing and his genrator and tent..... I wonder if he will share his welath with us then..... one can only live in hope ...... my hope is that global economists are smart enough to do whatever is necesary to make sure Proffessor K predictions never ever come true...... Im stuffed if they do.....but the big problem is other then a pile of buried gold , a vegie garden and some livestock, which will be useless until that day I dont know how to insure against the proffessors predictions....

And if i followed that philospohy id be broke for 69 of every 70 years...