YML - Yilgarn Mining

[gringokonyo]

Guys, some research today has led to a few ammendments/additions
2 Main changes to be aware of Marilliana is only Avg 15m thick not 60m as drill assays that are due early 07 will show and scoping study on pre-feasibility numbers for Carr Boyd are due out 'Early 07' too.

YML
Yilgarn Mining

Shares: 60m + 20m 25c 30/6/07 opies

@20c Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $10m
@30c Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $24m
@40c Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $32m
@50c Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $40m
@$1 Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $80m
@$1.25 Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $100m
@$1.50 Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $120m

Has $4.5m in the Bank so no need for funds anytime soon


Projects

1. Rose Dam
Used this Gold project to generate $6.6m in cash, good cash cow and shows management knows how to get a project going


2. Irwin Hills
JV 40% YML 60% MRE, JORC 20Mt@ 1%Ni (Nickel) + 0.12%Co (Colbat)

High levels of Chloride so having trouble getting MRE to agrre to Toll Treatment at its Murrin-Murrin Plant, although its Laterite Nickel its not that bad as MRE is the Laterite King!

MRE stated in their last Qtrly that "Preliminary mining studies are underway to determine the viability of direct trucking of ore to Murrin Murrin plant"

3. Carr-Boyd
YML earning 51% from TIR (Now part of CSM Cons-Min) can earn up to 90%

JORC 600Kt's@ 1.4%Ni + 0.5%Cu all within 100m of the surface so open pittable!

Using an EV of $5 lb Nickel and $2 lb Cu this first pass JORC gives the deposit an In Ground Value of over $150m

A full scoping study type feasibilty report is due "Early 07"


4. Marillana - This project is the SPEC KILLER!

Its an Iron Ore tennement 2kms west of the Brockman Deposit (225Mt@ 60% Fe)

Its old Hamersley Ground who outline a STRIKE OF 10KM's! Grading an avg 60% Fe! Width is probably 350m Avg and thickness of the Iron Ore is 15m Avg

Our Estimates so far are 240M Tonnes of Ore Grading 60% Fe
If we attribute 5% we get 12Mt@60% Fe
Use an In-Ground Value of $5t = $60m NPV
$10t= $120m NPV
$15t= $180m NPV

But Hamersley walked away from it 20years ago becasue the deposit is not at surface, its covered by 50m of top soil which is bad, but given current Iron Ore prices (ADD ANOTHER 10%) and the Sheer location of the deposit!Have a look at the presentations its surrounded by BHP, RIO, FMG and Hancock Mining!

Whats also very important is that BHP's Railway runs throught the deposit, so YML could feasibly only have to dig it up and truck it 2-3kms to the BHP Rail Line which runs straight to the Ports and given FMG's recent win in the Courts to use BHP's line I can't see why YML can't as well

East Sunrise (100% interest), 35 kms south of Laverton
Historical exploration has returned promising drill intersections including 14m at 10.2 gpt gold. Further drilling is planned for early 2007. Just food for thought.

Kanowna South (Earning 70%), W.A.
Drilling to commence shortly for Gold,

Plumridge (Earning 60%), W.A.
JV with Western Areas for Mineral Sands, looking to do some drilling in 2007


Byro (Farmed out 70% Free carried 30%), W.A.
Mithrill farmed in and should do some drilling by 2nd Qtr 07, following up on oxide intersections of Nickel & Copper,


Ravensthorpe (100%), W.A.
Grounds near BHP's Ravensthorpe project, apparantly prospective for Zinc/Lead,


Attributable Value

Irwin Hills @$2.50lb Ni =$50m, YML 40%= $20m
Remember Laterite (low grade) No Cap-Ex as can be treated at JV partner MRE's Murrin Murrin Plant,


Carr Boyd @ $5lb Ni + $2lb Cu = $150m, YML's up to 90%= $135m
JV with Cos Min, Excellent Open Pittable Options and scoping study due very soon!



Marilliana @5% and @$10t= $120m,
Elephant Ground, possibly only 5% of total size, excellent Infrastructure with BHP Rail Running Straight passed deposit! 50m of top soil


Total = Approx $275m or $3.45c a share

I think my NPV's have been pretty conservative but am happy to discount the value I got to by another say 80% ie $3.45c x 0.2 = 70c YML


Undervalued or what? Thoughts?

YT,

Thanks for the recalculation of Marillana. It's a little less than the original guesstimates but there's still potential for more.

Looking at the AGM presentations and the update YML sent to the ASX in mid December, Hamersley Iron assessed that small triangular area that borders BHP's tenement on one side and land set aside for a future railway line on the other. Judging by the overall size of the tenement, this area appears to only represent about 5% of the total. So a guesstimated 224million tonnes from about 5% of the tenement isn't too bad.

In the December letter to the ASX, YML indicated they are looking to drill in the zone set aside for the future railway as they have entitlement to any mineral within it. This area has not been previously assessed for mineral and given that this railway zone is right up against and runs the full length of the 'confirmed' 10km strike, it's a pretty good chance that the 350metre average width will be wider. Well, based on the way I'm interpreting the maps.

It will be interesting to see how much ore YML propose to extract each year. They might be limited to 10 or 11 million tonnes given the amount of dirt that they need to move to get at the ore. Still, this gives the mine a working life of at least 20 years.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Buyers jumping on board YML this morning on a red day

Looks like an ann is coming

Up 10% so far

Correction 15%

 

[Snakey]

keep up the ramping guys ....I hold

 

[Disco Stu]

I'm not sure if it is the impending ann or just YT's analysis getting out there and stirring interest!!

 

[Sean K]

Buyers jumping on board YML this morning on a red day

Looks like an ann is coming

Up 10% so far

Correction 15%

Sure it's not just ASF buying it again YT? LOL.

There's actually some options to buy this morning too. Surprised you have snapped them up. Only a 30% spread.

Is there an actually due?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

YT, why have you used $2.50/lb Nickel at Irwin Hills ad $5/lb at Carr Boyd? Are you basing that on the increasing processing costs with the Chloride factor in?

Yep, as well as the fact the MRE will screw YML over the price it recieves due to the fact that MRE own the Murrin Murrin Plant and the YML/MRE resource is stranded without it

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

keep up the ramping guys ....I hold

Are you blind snake?

YML has risen 15%, will obviously settle back but the fact it has risen on volume of nearly 400k is very interesting, considering

1. Avg volume is about 200k over past month (about 400k past week)

2. Today is a red day for resources



I'm not sure where the buying is coming from, I would have thought alll ASF peeps who liked the story were in around 16c - 22c

Anyway Snake if you consider my posts ramps, please feel free to post some proper fundamental analysis

I'd love to read it

 

[Sean K]

YT, would do a chart for you but Bigcharts doesn't recognise YML for some reason. Sorry.

 

[Snakey]

Are you blind snake?

YML has risen 15%, will obviously settle back but the fact it has risen on volume of nearly 400k is very interesting, considering

1. Avg volume is about 200k over past month (about 400k past week)

2. Today is a red day for resources



I'm not sure where the buying is coming from, I would have thought alll ASF peeps who liked the story were in around 16c - 22c

Anyway Snake if you consider my posts ramps, please feel free to post some proper fundamental analysis

I'd love to read it

actually yt i think your posts and maybe one other on this stock to be good and fair analysis and dont consider your posts ramps...hence one of the reasons I hold medium to long term. I myself do not ramp and call it how I see it....holding or not.
but i am happy for others to ramp stocks i hold

 

[Jay-684]

hmmmm, annoyed at myself that I didnt get more @ 20c yesterday!

This is going towards the '99 3.2 Estoril Blue M3 I want YT!

 

[canny]

Buy depth increased significantly since last week.
Your analysis has certainly helped a lot of people see the value here Young Trader - thanks.

Now - bring on that ann!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

No worries guys, I hope this all makes us a ton!


Good luck Jay, keep at it and you'll get there


Thought I should let everyone know that I copied my fundamental analysis and posted it on NZ Stock Forums as well just before, only because someone started a thread today that didn't have much info in it

Have also forwarded my analysis to a few brokers and analysts today to get their feed back,

So far still in 18-23c range

Needs to really break 23c

Then its 23c- 27c

Then 27c - Blue Sky

 

[marklar]

Needs to really break 23c

Then its 23c- 27c

Then 27c - Blue Sky

Anyone with access to market depth info care to share? or is this based on said info YT??

m.

 

[dj_420]

its based on a technical analysis markr. ill post one up shortly.

 

[canny]

Buys:
No. Volume Price

2 43,653 0.23
1 38,000 0.225
7 286,636 0.22
2 27,000 0.215
3 29,000 0.21
1 24,000 0.205
3 94,466 0.20
1 70,000 0.195
1 10,000 0.19
2 30,500 0.185
3 197,000 0.18
1 30,000 0.17
3 43,200 0.165
2 70,565 0.16
2 160,000 0.15
1 50,000 0.145
1 30,000 0.10


Sells:
Price Volume No.

0.235 2,139 1
0.24 69,000 3
0.25 38,000 3
0.265 28,000 1
0.27 30,000 1
0.30 75,000 1
0.32 5,000 1
0.35 1,236,900 1

 

[Caliente]

well - 27 cents has just been touched. Should be an interesting close today.

edit - Correction it just got eaten!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Well given todays volume I'd say I'm confident that 23c level has been broken

Which means were in a new trading range being

23c - 27c


That is really positive as if the stock is @ or near the 27c Blue Sky Level when the ann comes out traders will go nuts with the stock as they love it when stocks are at or near All time highs and a very positive ann comes out


But I still don't know what to make of today's frenzied buying, notice EB is over on HC giving it a good wrap and as I said I did post my analysis up on NZ Stock forums Have also forwarded my analysis to a few brokers and analysts today to get their feed back

 

[JoshyJ]

just touched 28c.

 

[kransky]

28.5c

 

[canny]

What a ride - and going by YT's figures, this is only the beginning.
Wonder how far away the first assays are. Be good to see it run for a few more days first.