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YML - Yilgarn Mining

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gringokonyo said:
Thank you (and Camaybay) for the weight info - potentially over 1.4 billion tonnes of ore. Better than I was expecting.
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Still early days. We're still awaiting drilling results...but should these figures be even close to being right (at this stage we're only speculating), then YML could possibly be the buy of the year. As excited as we might be about the forthcoming drilling results, its best to take one step at a time. This stock has great potential and has been overlooked. This is the perfect stock for my spec portfolio.
DYOR
 
marklar said:
Looks like a good buy today at 20c.

m.
Click to expand...

A big drop today up to now on super high volume, so please enlighten me as to why it is a good buy ??
 
I think the comment was based on the fact that the SP is relatively low, so close to the potentially good announcement..if you look around there are lots of other quality stocks dropping on high volumes...just one of those big red days.
 
Porper said:
so please enlighten me as to why it is a good buy ??
Click to expand...
The fundamentals of the company haven't changed overnight, their prospects are just the same as they were yesterday, but like (almost) everything else it's cheaper today.

I wouldn't say volume was super high, 18 trades all less than 50000 shares doesn't seem high at all.

m.
 
Ok Guys about a month ago YT asked me to keep quiet about YMl and just accumulate.....which I have done....alas only 50k oppies but a 6 figure amount of heads....with the assays due out imminently on YML I have emailed a few people about this stock....I have been a good boy and not mentioned it for a month...so I hope you all have boght as many as you want.

We may see a bit more interest soon - let's make this baby go up now.

EB
 
What?
 
Kennas,

A few people pm'd me regarding copy my Fundamental analysis and putting it up on other forums such as 'hot copper' and NZ Stock forums,

I replied by stating that it would be better if those on ASF had the benfit of my research for a bit before we 'elightened' others,

Well it has been just under 1 month,

I agree EB, peeps on ASF have known about YML for long enough, feel free to post to whoever you like on HotCopper or anyone else

On a side note todays price and volume action is interesting, constant soaking up of stock around 20c for last few days
 
Thanks YT, that makes some sence now. And very happy that ASF members should be getting the value of your research before those on the likes of HC! Have a great weekend!
 
gringokonyo said:
Thank you (and Camaybay) for the weight info - potentially over 1.4 billion tonnes of ore. Better than I was expecting.
Click to expand...

Also was curious has anyone checked/re-checked these figurs

1.4Billion tonnes of Ore that could possibly be grading 60% Fe seems almost impossible!

Isn't BHP's Brockman only like 220Mt Grading 60% Fe?

That would make Marinillia about 6x as large? ? ? ? That doesn't make sense

Even if the above estimates are correct, I'd say given current uncertainty they should be dicounted by 95%

so attribute 5% value of 1.4Billion tonnes Ore = 70Mt @ 60% Fe,

Assume a margin of $5t (very low I know but then there is 50m of top soil) = Possible NPV of $350m

Thats still a large NPV for such heavy discounting given mkt cap is $12m!
 
The 1.4 billion is based on the assumption that the strike is 10km x 600metres width x 60 metres depth. This gives 360,000,000 cubic metres (10,000x600x60). Apparently there is 4 tonnes of ore per cubic metre (which is plausible as water weighs 1 tonne per cubic metre), so 4 x 360,000,000 cubic metres = 1.44 billion tonnes.

Now, is the original Hamersley Iron strike that you mentioned 10km x 500-750 metres wide x 60 metres depth (as opposed to 6 metres)? If so, then I can't see how the tonneage can be less than about 1.4 billion. However if the depth should have been recorded as an average of 6 metres, then the tonnage will be about 144million, with a hell of a lot of dirt on top to remove. Still, 144 million tonnes isn't too shabby.

I read recently in the Australian that Fortescue have 3.2 billion tonnes of ore in their primary tenement, so it's feasible.

Are BHP considered a bit light on for Iron Ore? They only seem to produce 80mill per annum, which is well down on RioTinto (>130million I think).

If you double check the measurements of Hamersly's results, then you'll know if the tonnage estimate is right.
 
Hey YT I've been looking at some iron ore hopefulls for a bit now and it's pretty difficult to put down a insitu value ...from what I gather most are done at 1-2 %
The company I'm looking at has a resource of 1 billion tonne, reserve 370 million tonne
Independant valuations in their last report valued them between $175 million to $580 million
What I mean is if the professionals can have valuations that vary so much what chance have we of getting it right?
But using your calcs and reducing it to 1% thats still 70 million...can that be right? Maybe someone should question them on that hardness of the topsoil?
Good luck though it looks like another good find!!!
PS my figures are from memory and will be there or there abouts
 
yml ... fe assays and rerating imminent

Post from 'elsewhere' - with permission.
YML about to bloom!

I have doing a bit of research into YML which I post below - some of this is from other forums some of it is the results of my own digging. The main thing is that it is all together here:

Background on current YML projects:
-----------------------------------

YML

Shares: 59.7mn + 22m 25c 06/07 options

At 20c Undiluted Mkt Cap = $11.94mn

At 20c Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $16.3mn

Number quoted

Shares : 59.7mn

Options 11.8mn

Has $4.5m in the Bank so no need for any placements or other fund raising


In other words taking the diluted mkt cap of 16.3mn and subtracting the cash in the balance sheet the following projects are currently valued at $11.8mn by the market

1 Irwin Hills
JV 40% YML 60% MRE, JORC 20Mt@ 1%Ni + 0.12%Co

2. Carr-Boyd
YML earning 51% from TIR (Now part of CSM Cons-Min) can earn up to 90%

JORC 1.4%Ni + 0.5%Cu all within 100m of the surface so open pittable!

An EV of $5 lb Nickel and $2 lb Cu JORC gives the deposit an In Ground Value of over $150m....


3. Marillana

Iron Ore tennement 2kms west of the Brockman Deposit (225Mt@ 60% Fe)

Once mined byHamersley who recorded a STRIKE OF 10KM's with grades averaging 60% Fe! Width is around 500m - 750m with a depth of around 60m


This site is surrounded by BHP, RIO, FMG and Hanc ock Mining!

Bonanza grades all around in this area

Assays on this one are due out early january...in other words any moment now

These drill assays need only confirm the grades achieved by Hamersley (around 60% fe) and we have ourselves a JORC on the first 1km

_________________

In addition this a post from another forum:

Post reads

They have two very promising Nickel Projects,

1 JV with MRE (the laterite King) a JV over a very low grade Laterite Resource that can and should be toll treated at MRE's Murrin Murrin Plant, with discussions continuing

2. JV with CSM over a nice good grade Open-Pittable Nickel Deposit with Feasibility Study due Early Jan


JMS is in early days, YML is where JMS will be in say 6-12months

YML has proven management who made a profit of $6.6m from developing their gold project,

A management team who have been actively toiling away on some amazing projects,

A team that has not had to hit up the mkt several times for funding like JMS

So if JMS can be capped at $45m with its projects, I'd love to see what YML can be capped at, say a similar $45m= an SP of 55-58c YML

Don't forget the Mkt went crazy with JMS for a survey outlining a huge possible Iron deposit near Rio's Brockman (no surface assays yet let alone drill results), while YML are going to recieve DRILL ASSAYS back on a dposit that Hamersley defined as having a strike of over 10Km also near Rio's Brockman!

JMS is completeing Nickel Survey, YML is completeing toll treatment agreement over Nickel Project 1 and Feasibility over Nickel Project 2,

Post ends

________________

We are awaiting real assay results for on the fe from YML - not rock chip samples....in other words YML is where JMS will be in about 9 months or so...yet the mkt cap does not reflect this. So do you wait for assay results which are already known thanks to Hammersley or do you buy now in anticipation of those assays.

Add in the NI and CO... and then think about the gold..

Gold.....what gold???

Well....YML also has East Sunrise (100% interest), 35 kms south of Laverton, where historical exploration has returned promising drill intersections including 14m at 10.2 gpt gold. Further drilling is planned for early 2007.

Finally read this post again and make sure you understand everything that YMl has got going for it.

A lot of ann.s due on all these projects...if you though JMS was good just wait until YML takes off.

And yes I do hold......lots of them.

Also a final thought...not many shares in issue so when YML does take off it will move upwards very quickly.

Good luck....

Even at 40 - 50c sp YML is only worth about $30mn...if you think - the rose dam mine made them $6.6mn in revenue during 2005 -6 - incidentally more than their IPO did - then you will see the management of this one knows how to make money....not make money from the shareholders...but make money by digging it out of the ground....as it should be done.
 
I think an updated fundamental sheet is due

YML
Yilgarn Mining

Shares: 60m + 20m 25c 30/6/07 opies

@20c Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $10m
@30c Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $24m
@40c Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $32m
@50c Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $40m
@$1 Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $80m
@$1.25 Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $100m
@$1.50 Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $120m

Has $4.5m in the Bank so no need for funds anytime soon


Projects

1. Rose Dam
Used this Gold project to generate $6.6m in cash, good cash cow and shows management knows how to get a project going


2. Irwin Hills
JV 40% YML 60% MRE, JORC 20Mt@ 1%Ni (Nickel) + 0.12%Co (Colbat)

High levels of Chloride so having trouble getting MRE to agrre to Toll Treatment at its Murrin-Murrin Plant, although its Laterite Nickel its not that bad as MRE is the Laterite King!

If they can get this Toll Treatement going it will be a real big cash cow!


3. Carr-Boyd
YML earning 51% from TIR (Now part of CSM Cons-Min) can earn up to 90%

JORC 600Kt's@ 1.4%Ni + 0.5%Cu all within 100m of the surface so open pittable!

Using an EV of $5 lb Nickel and $2 lb Cu this first pass JORC gives the deposit an In Ground Value of over $150m


4. MarillanaThis project is the SPEC KILLER!

Its an Iron Ore tennement 2kms west of the Brockman Deposit (225Mt@ 60% Fe)

Its old Hamersley Ground who outline a STRIKE OF 10KM's! Grading an avg 60% Fe! Width is probably 500m - 750m and thickness of the Iron Ore is 60m

Our Estimates so far are 1.4Billion Tonnes of Ore Grading 60% Fe
If we attribute 1% we get 14Mt@60% Fe
Use an In-Ground Value of $5t = $70m NPV
$10t= $140m NPV
$15t= $210m NPV

But Hamersley walked away from it 20years ago becasue the deposit is not at surface, its covered by 50m of top soil which is bad, but given current Iron Ore prices (ADD ANOTHER 10%) and the Sheer location of the deposit!Have a look at the presentations its surrounded by BHP, RIO, FMG and Hancock Mining!

Whats also very important is that BHP's Railway runs throught the deposit, so YML could feasibly only have to dig it up and truck it 2-3kms to the BHP Rail Line which runs straight to the Ports and given FMG's recent win in the Courts to use BHP's line I can't see why YML can't as well

East Sunrise (100% interest), 35 kms south of Laverton
Historical exploration has returned promising drill intersections including 14m at 10.2 gpt gold. Further drilling is planned for early 2007. Just food for thought.


Attributable Value

Irwin Hills @$2.50lb Ni =$50m, YML 40%= $20m
Remember Laterite (low grade) No Cap-Ex as can be treated at JV partner MRE's Murrin Murrin Plant,


Carr Boyd @ $5lb Ni + $2lb Cu = $150m, YML's up to 90%= $135m
JV with Cos Min, Excellent Open Pittable Options!



Marilliana @1% and @$10t= $140m,
Elephant Ground, possibly only 1% of total size, excellent Infrastructure with BHP Rail Running Straight passed deposit! 50m of top soil


Total = Approx $300m or $3.75c a share

I think my NPV's have been pretty conservative but am happy to discount the value I got to by another say 80% ie $3.75c x 0.2 = 75c YML


Undervalued or what? Thoughts?
 



I like the "numbers" .......... I'm searching for the "BIKKIE" jar .........
 
YT - brilliant post.
Just a thank you in advance - I've nicked it and reposted it (with a credit to you).
I think it's time YML was brought to life.
It's flown under the radar for too long, and our assays must be nearly in. (After all, it IS early Jan now!!)

Thanks for putting in the effort on the numbers.
Cheers
 
Guys, some research today has led to a few ammendments/additions
2 Main changes to be aware of Marilliana is only Avg 15m thick not 60m as drill assays that are due early 07 will show and scoping study on pre-feasibility numbers for Carr Boyd are due out 'Early 07' too.

YML
Yilgarn Mining

Shares: 60m + 20m 25c 30/6/07 opies

@20c Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $10m
@30c Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $24m
@40c Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $32m
@50c Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $40m
@$1 Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $80m
@$1.25 Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $100m
@$1.50 Fully Dilluted Mkt Cap = $120m

Has $4.5m in the Bank so no need for funds anytime soon


Projects

1. Rose Dam
Used this Gold project to generate $6.6m in cash, good cash cow and shows management knows how to get a project going


2. Irwin Hills
JV 40% YML 60% MRE, JORC 20Mt@ 1%Ni (Nickel) + 0.12%Co (Colbat)

High levels of Chloride so having trouble getting MRE to agrre to Toll Treatment at its Murrin-Murrin Plant, although its Laterite Nickel its not that bad as MRE is the Laterite King!

MRE stated in their last Qtrly that "Preliminary mining studies are underway to determine the viability of direct trucking of ore to Murrin Murrin plant"

3. Carr-Boyd
YML earning 51% from TIR (Now part of CSM Cons-Min) can earn up to 90%

JORC 600Kt's@ 1.4%Ni + 0.5%Cu all within 100m of the surface so open pittable!

Using an EV of $5 lb Nickel and $2 lb Cu this first pass JORC gives the deposit an In Ground Value of over $150m

A full scoping study type feasibilty report is due "Early 07"


4. Marillana - This project is the SPEC KILLER!

Its an Iron Ore tennement 2kms west of the Brockman Deposit (225Mt@ 60% Fe)

Its old Hamersley Ground who outline a STRIKE OF 10KM's! Grading an avg 60% Fe! Width is probably 350m Avg and thickness of the Iron Ore is 15m Avg

Our Estimates so far are 240M Tonnes of Ore Grading 60% Fe
If we attribute 5% we get 12Mt@60% Fe
Use an In-Ground Value of $5t = $60m NPV
$10t= $120m NPV
$15t= $180m NPV

But Hamersley walked away from it 20years ago becasue the deposit is not at surface, its covered by 50m of top soil which is bad, but given current Iron Ore prices (ADD ANOTHER 10%) and the Sheer location of the deposit!Have a look at the presentations its surrounded by BHP, RIO, FMG and Hancock Mining!

Whats also very important is that BHP's Railway runs throught the deposit, so YML could feasibly only have to dig it up and truck it 2-3kms to the BHP Rail Line which runs straight to the Ports and given FMG's recent win in the Courts to use BHP's line I can't see why YML can't as well

East Sunrise (100% interest), 35 kms south of Laverton
Historical exploration has returned promising drill intersections including 14m at 10.2 gpt gold. Further drilling is planned for early 2007. Just food for thought.

Kanowna South (Earning 70%), W.A.
Drilling to commence shortly for Gold,

Plumridge (Earning 60%), W.A.
JV with Western Areas for Mineral Sands, looking to do some drilling in 2007


Byro (Farmed out 70% Free carried 30%), W.A.
Mithrill farmed in and should do some drilling by 2nd Qtr 07, following up on oxide intersections of Nickel & Copper,


Ravensthorpe (100%), W.A.
Grounds near BHP's Ravensthorpe project, apparantly prospective for Zinc/Lead,


Attributable Value

Irwin Hills @$2.50lb Ni =$50m, YML 40%= $20m
Remember Laterite (low grade) No Cap-Ex as can be treated at JV partner MRE's Murrin Murrin Plant,


Carr Boyd @ $5lb Ni + $2lb Cu = $150m, YML's up to 90%= $135m
JV with Cos Min, Excellent Open Pittable Options and scoping study due very soon!



Marilliana @5% and @$10t= $120m,
Elephant Ground, possibly only 5% of total size, excellent Infrastructure with BHP Rail Running Straight passed deposit! 50m of top soil


Total = Approx $275m or $3.45c a share

I think my NPV's have been pretty conservative but am happy to discount the value I got to by another say 80% ie $3.45c x 0.2 = 70c YML


Undervalued or what? Thoughts?
 
Thanks again Young_trader for your insightful fundamental analysis. Judging by your calcuations it looks very undervalued no doubt.

I am not holding yet, but I don't think it will be long.

Hypnotic
 
YT, why have you used $2.50/lb Nickel at Irwin Hills ad $5/lb at Carr Boyd? Are you basing that on the increasing processing costs with the Chloride factor in?
I swear the ASF should be paying you for research. Though I notice that you have stopped quoting broker reports in your posts, too. I don't know that I'd ever take the valuation of another (last year 3 reports of CSM over $3.00). But I guess they are usefull for a quick glance.
 
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