Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

YML - Yilgarn Mining

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We need to keep in mind the profitability of DSO Iron Ore..

MMX has a market cap of 2Bn on 50Mt@60%Fe and 40Mt@40%Fe.. so YML is still worth under 150M at these prices with a 40Mt@58%Fe JORC out in a few days time...

I'm staying in.. hopefully the big boys will take over this one when the JORC is in the "bank"...
 
The investor presentation values YML at an "estimated" $1.98/T on an $86M market cap. Do the math, this means 43MT. At $3/T JORC EV, this works out to $1.55 per share.

Even without any further discoveries, assuming a super-conservative 2009/2010 contract price of $65 per tonne and a super-conservative mining and transport price of $35 per tonne, 5MTpa means $150M EBIT and with a P/E of 8, a share price of $15, market cap of $1.2B. Same values but 10MTpa means $300M EBIT, share price $30, market cap of $2.4B.

But don't forget Irwin Hills. Minara's (Murrin Murrin) resource is relatively cobalt poor, just 0.066% Co where the Irwin JV's ore (Coglia South) is 0.22% Co. They have excess capacity for cobalt production. Cobalt is currently about $66k/T, and with 5060T in Coglia South (testwork to date focuses on Coglia South) that's $333M in-ground value. YML's share is 40%, hence an in-ground value of $133M.

There's plenty of upside left!

Disclaimer - I'm a cartoon cat, DYOR!
 
Coudnt watch the market today but had a pre-open sell order at $1.40 then got home to see this. :banghead:

However I bought in at an average of 30c and only sold half of my shares this morning so not too upset.

Looking forward to more good times from Yilgarn and also just a special thanx to YT ur a champion.
 
Someone's keen with their sell order at $2.50!

As mentioned previously, valuing 43MT at $3/T and discounting the Irwin Hills resource to 10% of $133M gives me an expected market cap of $142M or a share valuation of $1.71 fully diluted.

Of course, DSO being what it is, $3/T is very conservative and depending on future price increases $4/T or $5/T may be more appropriate valuations for JORC resources. These give share valuations of $2.22 and $2.74 respectively.

Thoughts anyone?
 
Stimpy, there are plenty of people who just buy at market, putting in that large sell price when there's not many shares around is a smart way to try and trap someone who put in a large at market buy and ate up all the other buys before it. It may never pay off, but then again it might!
 
any idea when we might expect another resource upgrade, i bought more today with the idea that it was due out fairly soon and seemed to be some weakness today.
 
MAN,

I read abut YML in a magazine.

It was 18 cents.

I posted on it too. Where was my patience!!!

errr.
 
YT - To save me searching all night - can you tell me briefly the grades of Fe and Fe203 considered to be commercial, and also a rough explanation of difference between hematite (Fe203) and Magnetite?
Which is most sought after?

Anyone else - welcome to help me out.
TIA
 
canny said:
YT - To save me searching all night - can you tell me briefly the grades of Fe and Fe203 considered to be commercial, and also a rough explanation of difference between hematite (Fe203) and Magnetite?
Which is most sought after?

Anyone else - welcome to help me out.
TIA
Click to expand...

G'day Canny,

This link has some pretty pictures and a good overview of what your looking for.
Hematite is Magnetite that has had the quartz weathered out of it.Hematite is therefore preferred to Magnetite (due to processing costs) good results are commonly upward of 60% Fe content.
Channel iron deposits (CID) are weathered hematite that has been washed off the source and thus have a clay percentage, good results for these are upwards of 57% (easier to mine).

http://www.cazalyresources.com.au/files/grabdoc.php?type=doc&id=102&cid=44

Cheers
 
Many thanks jtb...:)

Will check link and keep learning!!
The ones I'm interested in at the moment are TLM and MDX - thinking there could be a typo of average Fe in MDX ann as average didn't match the 4 grades - average should perhgaps have been higher - and that's why I am trying work it all out!
 
Apparently a 43Mt@58%Fe JORC statement due this week (or early next week).. So what will the SP do?

Significantly bigger iron ore miners and their resource statements:
MGX 800M shares * 2.75 = $2.2Bn cap 103Mt@62%Fe
MMX 600M shares * 5.25 = $3.15Bn cap 50M@60%Fe + 46M@42%Fe

YML's resource has the potential (especially with undrilled targets) to make them a billion dollar company. They also dont face any infrastructure issues.

My question is what should they be worth once the JORC is out?
 
Hi. I'm just a new YLM shareholder. Any ideas on possible SP range when jorc results ann.? I'm hoping I have not got in too high.
 
Guys,

As a rule of thumb, I used to apply the avg mkt EV o companies which was $5/t Fe, but of late this has gone to $10/t Fe (which is reflective of the 10% I.G.V. rule)

So 43Mt@58%Fe = 25Mt's Fe @$5/t=$125m @ $10/t = $250m

80m shares on issue so SP range should = $1.55c - $3

But here's something very important to remember, alot of punters, BUY THE RUMOUR SELL THE FACT!

This is not a recommendation, or pirce target etc, its just an answer to questions which a few people have asked me,

p.s. I thought JORC was only meant to be 30Mt's?
 
YT, preliminary JORC results were meant to confirm 30MTs however the infill drilling has increased the average depth up to 25%, plus there is a small extension in the southern part of the NW sector. The 43MT is the company's own estimate, BTW, just read the investor presentation.

They're very confident of confirming 100MTs in 2008 and so am I. If you look closely at the way the drilling plan has evolved you can see that the extension drilling to the north has increased in scope to include infill and even more extension drilling. The area drilled is comparable to the area of the 43MTs. This says nothing of the huge potential for the anomalies in the southeast of the tenement.

I'm holding.
 
Todays discounted price was enough for me to grab a few more. Did not expect to be grabbing more at this stage, but I got excited. Bring on the JORC!
 
Well i unfortunately sold half my YML shares today. I am afraid this puppy is going to plummet like UMC has since Its announcement. I am still in for plenty but sometimes when you dont know if you should sell or sit tight then its time to sit on the fence... ie sell some of it.

I hate doing this especially when todays price was well below the prices seen only a few days ago

:(
 
Personally, I don't think it'll crash like UMC did when the announcement is out.
I'm just worried about the possibility of delays. hopefully, they'll keep to their words and release it in October, not few months later.
 
Looks to be some excitement on the buy side here, nice jump up on the way. Nice to see a stock that doesn't plummit on a good ann.
 

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