YML - Yilgarn Mining

[Mozart56]

100k order placed today at .63..looks like some capping going on..... The buy side was starting to accumalate at close of yesterday, with some large orders around .62, .625. Then this 100k order placed at .63 came along, buyers pulled out

....and then of course during pre-open around 50k was showing on the buy side against the 100k order....they of course were pulled minutes before open.....nice work.

The order has only been touched to the tune of 7000 shares, and there are less than 16000 shares for sale between .635 to .70. So if this order is filled we might see a little air to .70 where it meets its first resistance soon after at .71

Last week was the same deal with the layered 200k sells all the way up the sell side in 2 cent increments.

Frustrating to say the least!

Couldn't agree more as I try to ingnore the enormous paper losses I have made since the highs of two weeks ago. If I had more cash I think I'd buy more as a $50M cap (+$6M cash) on a 30Mt Fe resource (+plethora of other tenaments) looks like good value to me. Hopefully we hear something soon, as drilling continues as we speak. YML said to expect nothing before August... but that is only 2 weeks away. Patience is the key here.

Be really nice if we heard something unexpected in the interim, like an offtake deal with BHP. New man has only been in the job for a couple of weeks... so let's give him a little more time to make that happen

 

[tibby]

Yeah Mozart, nail on the head mate, patience is key, but then again we might not have to wait to long, as August is just around the corner.
The 100k order that was sitting there today at .63 has been chewed so now SP has crept up a bit, but no sellers willing to negotiate yet!! 13,400 shares available up to .7, first real sign of resistance looks to be .72....

 

[JJP]

#1 2nd-December-2006, 07:10 PM
JJP Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 16

UMC - United Minerals Corporation

You probably need to go to ASX disclosures for this company......to confirm for yourself the very bullish tone that I will present here for this stock.

$25 million company....they have almost $5 million cash.

Six weeks ago, they announced the acquisition of iron ore exploration tenements in the Pilbara, one kilometre away from BHP Mining Area C (C mine). BHP is ramping up production to 43 million tons per annum from the C mine, which is about annual revenues of $ 3.5 billion for the mining giant.

_________________________________________________________________

First ever post on aussie stock forums for iron ore exploration company UMC company six months ago.........subsequent to that post, investors who did their homework were rewarded with that stock now some 500% higher, since December.

Many similiarities here with YML...... but much more homework needs to be done of YML.

UMC more than twice the market cap now......YML with some 30 mt of FE already - and another 6 gravity anomaly drill targets underway right now.

In view of the results of that previous drill programme (company calculated 30 mt).......this stock is very much lagging the other iron ore exploration companies. Ironic because with a JORC they are probably the most advanced.
(plus still that bluesky upside due to the drill programme underway now).

 

[YELNATS]

#1
UMC - United Minerals Corporation

this stock is very much lagging the other iron ore exploration companies.

Ironic because with a JORC they are probably the most advanced.

This stock is very much lagging the other iron ore exploration companies.

Isn't that "Ironic" Nice pun.lol

 

[tibby]

Here we go again, more layered big sells pushing the SP down again, 100k order at .64, 200k at .68 and .70, no doubt will drive the SP down all day if they stay thru pre-open....accumalating big time....but with the layered sells last week, and again this week....I wonder where the SP would have been if this person (I do believe it is ALL from one shareholder/broker) had held onto his share...typically this has been a tightly held stock, this was very evident when the stock consolidated in the high .40s only about a month ago...and look at the other orders, very thin...very small, and have not moved. Anyone have any insight??

 

[UPKA]

Here we go again, more layered big sells pushing the SP down again, 100k order at .64, 200k at .68 and .70, no doubt will drive the SP down all day if they stay thru pre-open....accumalating big time....but with the layered sells last week, and again this week....I wonder where the SP would have been if this person (I do believe it is ALL from one shareholder/broker) had held onto his share...typically this has been a tightly held stock, this was very evident when the stock consolidated in the high .40s only about a month ago...and look at the other orders, very thin...very small, and have not moved. Anyone have any insight??

its hard to say, yesterday's so called cap with around 100k shares was taken out, so u would think the capper would put a lil more than 100k there, and if it is the same person, its stupid to put the 200k and 100k cap at diff price levels. I think it could be few of the big holders taking some profit.

BUT dont worry abt short term volatility, im sure u r all into this with a long term view, the new CEO hasnt got on the boat yet, so i think nothing will happen dramtically for a few mths. if the SP do drop towards teh 40c range like couple of weeks ago, then im definately happy to top it up!

 

[Mozart56]

There are obviously some games being played with the stock at the moment, but these could become irrelevant if there is a positive announcement soon.

Care to speculate on what Marillana could be worth?

Please correct me if my analysis below is wrong, but I think it is worthwhile given we are getting closer to a JORC point and the prevailing prices and costs become a little more relevant. I was very pleased to see this article today. A 25% increase in lump iron prices is not going to hurt YML

I get an effective market cap of about $40M at today's prices taking into account cash from options and cash at bank.

If we are a little optimistic and assume the Marrillana tenament holds 50MT of 60%+ Calcined Fe after exploration of the other magnetic anomolies, then conservatively this has an inground value of $3 Billion - assuming $60/T (that doesn't take into account any forecasts increments mind you) - (any comments on the Fe price I have used? Is it too conservative?)

YML have stated that it would cost around $7/T to extract - but if we assume $10/T then the extracted value is still $50/T. Even if an offtake and infrastructure agreement took half this away, that still leaves YML with a profit margin of $25/T = $1.25B or 31 times greater than the current market cap. (ie effective share price of $20).

Now there are some big assumptions here, but I'm keen to know from the analysts amongst you if there is anything fundamentally wrong with the analysis. Is a 50% margin for on offtake and infrastructure agreement too small? Are the numbers out by exponential factors ... if not then YML still offers massive upside as a spec, even ignoring Irwin Hills and Carr Boyd.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Guys don't forget more late opies were converted yesterday, approx 335k

And there's still 495k left to be converted over,

If it was an underwriter converting them, I'd expect selling of them on mkt

One possible option,

The fundamentals will shine through in the end guys so just be patient

 

[Mozart56]

Guys don't forget more late opies were converted yesterday, approx 335k

And there's still 495k left to be converted over,

Apparently not. looks like the oppies were left high and dry in spite of the worth of 40c each. Oh well, less shares to dilute the pot. Let's hope YML don't miss the cash

Any comment on the Fe analysis YT? Do the numbers stack up?

 

[tibby]

YML heating up this morning...68c barrier with 200,000+ shares up for sale got chomped...

26-07-2007 10:18 AM $0.680 50000 $34,000.000
26-07-2007 10:17 AM $0.680 150000 $102,000.000

 

[Bullion]

Yes, definately getting very interesting now. The past week has really been soft for YML. Maybe people are getting ready for August news?

 

[Mozart56]

Yes, definately getting very interesting now. The past week has really been soft for YML. Maybe people are getting ready for August news?

Let's hope we've seen the last of the option holders cashing out. There must still be a lot of people who got burnt in the 70's and 80's who will be sorely tempted to get their money back if it goes up. Might see some new sellers come in now.

 

[powerkoala]

support looks good since yesterday.
now we have support in 65c instead of 60c last week.
today's price seems ok for YML even though XAO get smashed again.
still holding and waiting for next news.

 

[Gurgler]

So the SP finished as its low of the day; does this mean we might see a slight retrace before it progresses on its merry way?

 

[powerkoala]

So the SP finished as its low of the day; does this mean we might see a slight retrace before it progresses on its merry way?

what i like to see is XAO green tomorrow, then 70c barrier will be gone asap.
but who knows what happen

 

[UPKA]

Personally, I dont think YML is gonna move soon or make any annoucements till the new director comes on board, which is in August, and will prob take a month or two for him to settle down too. so during this time, we probably wont see much of a price movement.

 

[Mozart56]

Personally, I dont think YML is gonna move soon or make any annoucements till the new director comes on board, which is in August, and will prob take a month or two for him to settle down too. so during this time, we probably wont see much of a price movement.

Where did you see the commencement date for the new CEO?

Also noticed in the cashflow announcement that there was a large number of cancelled tenament applications, plus an expected $900k to be spent on exploration over the next 3 months. This iron ore stuff must be getting serious. Wonder if they will sell off either CB or Irwin Hills to enhance the focus and cash up? Exciting times ahead. The proposed name change will announced soon too.

 

[UPKA]

Where did you see the commencement date for the new CEO?

Also noticed in the cashflow announcement that there was a large number of cancelled tenament applications, plus an expected $900k to be spent on exploration over the next 3 months. This iron ore stuff must be getting serious. Wonder if they will sell off either CB or Irwin Hills to enhance the focus and cash up? Exciting times ahead. The proposed name change will announced soon too.

I read it in a news article couple of weeks back, it said the new CEO will come on board after 1st of August, cant remember where the article was from tho.

 

[gringokonyo]

I read it in a news article couple of weeks back, it said the new CEO will come on board after 1st of August, cant remember where the article was from tho.

It might have been this article from The Age.

Pilbara old hand takes helm to steer Yilgarn's iron push
Barry Fitzgerald
July 9, 2007

GARIMPEIRO

Yilgarn Mining
SUCCESS in the exploration game is as much about having the right people as it is about having the right project at the right location.

Iron ore and nickel hopeful Yilgarn Mining (ASX code YML) has long had the right sort of exploration properties. With the appointment of Wayne Richards as managing director, it can now boast it has the right people.

Securing the services of the 42-year-old metallurgist is something of a coup for Yilgarn. The former Townsville boy is due to start next month after clearing his desk as project integration and commissioning leader in the Pilbara for BHP Billiton's iron ore division.

Like Rio Tinto, BHP is spending money hand over fist to expand output in the Pilbara, with a lift in its production to as much as 300 million tonnes a year now on the cards.

All very exciting but not enough in itself to keep Richards within the fold. He wants some new challenges.

That's good news for Yilgarn because there is nothing about the Pilbara iron ore business that Richards doesn't know.

He has been pretty astute in picking Yilgarn as the boat to board in his professional sea change. The stock has performed well in the past couple of months but when stacked up against the stellar performance of peer iron ore hopefuls, it has some catching up to do.

While the group's Carr Boyd nickel project has some obvious upside value, it is the Marillana iron ore project in the Pilbara that will provide that catch-up in the months ahead.

First up will be establishing a compliant resource estimate for the north-west sector of the Marillana tenement of 30 million tonnes of iron ore, grading better than 58 per cent iron. That will be a good start but the real excitement will come when the potential of the four or five feeder drainage channels feeding in to the Fortescue Valley property from the iron-capped Hamersley Range are put to the test.

The company won't make any guesses but some Pilbara hands will tell you that they wouldn't be surprised if Marillana can shape up as 100 to 200 million tonnes, if not more.

And well it might. But Yilgarn will be left with the problem of getting the iron ore to market. On that score, it's worth pointing out that Marillana straddles BHP's railway to the coast. Third-party access to infrastructure in the Pilbara is still a sensitive issue but "win-win" deals will be done, if not with BHP then with the shiny infrastructure being put in place by Andrew Forrest's Fortescue Mines on the other side of the valley, 50 kilometres away.

 

[countryboy]

jumped on board at 0.625... took half the day to get there but was worth the wait. some one mentioned name change.
where can i find info on this?