YML - Yilgarn Mining

[nioka]

YT, I've only got 4 specs in my portfolio (YML, AGM, RDS and PBT)

Why would you consider AGM a speccie? That is one I would recommend to my friends. YML is/was a speccie for me. I've cashed in and run, maybe I'll be sorry but I'm not prepared to sit it out any longer.

 

[ALFguy]

YML is/was a speccie for me. I've cashed in and run, maybe I'll be sorry but I'm not prepared to sit it out any longer.

Always good to take a profit but just curious why you weren't prepared to wait for the FS? Not saying it's a sure thing, but it's pretty close to one.

 

[nioka]

Always good to take a profit but just curious why you weren't prepared to wait for the FS? Not saying it's a sure thing, but it's pretty close to one.

I'd suggest it is priced in as a near thing. As an investor in the main and not a regular trader I like to "bet" on near certainties.

 

[explod]

I'd suggest it is priced in as a near thing. As an investor in the main and not a regular trader I like to "bet" on near certainties.

Well said; there is an old saying in this business that goes, "Buy the rumour and sell the fact" the savvy investor tries to depart before the news is out. I used to be against tech. analysis but I have found subtle changes in price and volume is the next best thing to inside knowledge because it usually reflects it. However I will always remain a fundamentalist first, that way you do not finish up with too many dogs in the bag.

Any resemblance to fact may be pure conicidence

 

[gringokonyo]

Why would you consider AGM a speccie? That is one I would recommend to my friends. YML is/was a speccie for me. I've cashed in and run, maybe I'll be sorry but I'm not prepared to sit it out any longer.

I bought it last year, so I guess it was a speccie at the time. It's proven to be pretty good so far. I guess it goes off the speccie list when production starts later this year.

 

[nioka]

I bought it last year, so I guess it was a speccie at the time. It's proven to be pretty good so far. I guess it goes off the speccie list when production starts later this year.

Any company such as AGM that has the resource,the funds to develop the resource, is close to production and a ready market for it's product at a very good price is an investment and never a speccie I have held for over a year now and they were never a speccie to me. To my thinking YML has very little of the above

 

[gringokonyo]

Any company such as AGM that has the resource,the funds to develop the resource, is close to production and a ready market for it's product at a very good price is an investment and never a speccie I have held for over a year now and they were never a speccie to me. To my thinking YML has very little of the above

You don't think YML likely to start Carr Boyd in September is a little like AGM? I am taking a risk for sure, but there is 8,500 tonnes of Nickel sulphide and YML seem to have the $ to start mining - so to me it's a bit like AGM late last year. I can see that the $ from Carr Boyd will then help them to further develop their other prospects i.e Marillana and Irwin-Coglia. The main reason I've gone for YML is the potential for the iron ore at Marillana. It's a big call, but thanks to AGM, if YML falls flat at least I have those profits to cover the losses. I'm pretty bullish about YML though.

 

[nioka]

You don't think YML likely to start Carr Boyd in September is a little like AGM? I am taking a risk for sure, but there is 8,500 tonnes of Nickel sulphide and YML seem to have the $ to start mining - so to me it's a bit like AGM late last year. I can see that the $ from Carr Boyd will then help them to further develop their other prospects i.e Marillana and Irwin-Coglia. The main reason I've gone for YML is the potential for the iron ore at Marillana. It's a big call, but thanks to AGM, if YML falls flat at least I have those profits to cover the losses. I'm pretty bullish about YML though.

The return to YML from Carr Boyd will be only a percentage of the value of the nickel sold. AGM will get most of theirs. On the nickel value I would sooner have 1 AGM share to 10 or more YML. The Iron ore has to be mined at greater depth than most iron ore mines and even though they are beside the BHP rail line they still have to get access at a reasonable rate to make the mine payable. Unless BHP want to take over Marillana it may not be all that valuable. Yml was a good speccie at 20c. I consider 38c took it out of the "good" class. Just my opinion and I'm often wrong.

 

[gringokonyo]

The return to YML from Carr Boyd will be only a percentage of the value of the nickel sold. AGM will get most of theirs. On the nickel value I would sooner have 1 AGM share to 10 or more YML. The Iron ore has to be mined at greater depth than most iron ore mines and even though they are beside the BHP rail line they still have to get access at a reasonable rate to make the mine payable. Unless BHP want to take over Marillana it may not be all that valuable. Yml was a good speccie at 20c. I consider 38c took it out of the "good" class. Just my opinion and I'm often wrong.

Don't worry, I've got my fill of YML so won't be selling any AGM for more YML. Interesting your thoughts on Marillana potentially not being that valuable. I'm probably overly optimistic, but the iron-ore demand looks like it will last a few more years, which should make Marillana viable, even allowing for the $7 per tonne of ore cost for removing the 45meters dirt cover. Not sure about the transport arrangements - will be interesting to see what YML have negotiated.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

The return to YML from Carr Boyd will be only a percentage of the value of the nickel sold. AGM will get most of theirs. On the nickel value I would sooner have 1 AGM share to 10 or more YML. The Iron ore has to be mined at greater depth than most iron ore mines and even though they are beside the BHP rail line they still have to get access at a reasonable rate to make the mine payable. Unless BHP want to take over Marillana it may not be all that valuable. Yml was a good speccie at 20c. I consider 38c took it out of the "good" class. Just my opinion and I'm often wrong.

I played JMS like this, 10c stock 1c opies, sold at 20-40c for stcok 10-16c for the opies as it had alot of issues ahead of it, mainly the iron ore was stranded,

YML is worlds apart, everyone knows I'm bullish on YML and its plain to see that quite a few on here are sceptical and in it for the quick buck as I usually am ie recently MGOO in at 8c out at an avg of 22c in 1 month,

But not with YML, YML is an aggresive risky speculative growth story, however I feel that as projects are brought online the risk will diminsh, read the analysts reports he holds management in the highest of esteems, some of the boys are Ex WMC add to that the fact
a) They have already developed 1 project which netted $6m
b) Since listing in 2004/2005 they have not raised 1 single dollar in additional capital = No dilution to us shareholders

YML is not an AGM apples with apples mate, whats AGM's mkt cap? Whats the maximum upside 100%? ? Sure YML is risky but it could be $2 in 6 months if everything progresses well with Marilliana where its Mkt Cap would be $160m, consider GWR has a speculative Iron Ore project with an inferred 50Mt@61%Fe JORC and its mkt cap is $200m, so when if YML firms up 30mt@57%Fe a comparitive mkt cap = $100m at least + whatever else for the Nickel

YML is one of the best junior specs around (as Patersons have also stated)
Just my opinion so we'll wait and see, but I'm more often right than I am wrong :

p.s. Nioka stick to AGM mate, far less risky than YML

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

All that being said, I should add that there is nothing wrong with profit taking, YML is up about 100% in 1 month so thats something to consider,

But IMO those in it for the long haul should be rewarded

Everyone here must DYOR and decide

 

[exberliner1]

Agreed YT...but today we had a hefty sell off on the main market and sellers were noticeable by their absence today in YML.....one would have thought that after the recent stellar gains that today was a perfect excuse to cash in...

But no - very few sellers and some larger bids sitting there in depth...

Today was a very good day for YML imo

EB

 

[skegsi]

Enjoying the story so far!

Just a quick question about the Patto's write-up.
How do they come to their EV figures for YML's Ni and Fe projects?
Why is the Fe EV figure so low?

Don't really get the EV thing all together really. Any help appreciated.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hi Skegsi,

EV's are a comparison tool to determine whether a stock is cheap or expensive when comapred to the mkt avg

For example for Sulphide Nickel producers the mkt EV is around $5,000t for grades around 1% all the way up to $20,000t for grades of 3-5%

Whats important though is that YML has a 40% interest in the Irwin Hills project which contains close to 200,000 t's Nickel, however its laterite, still this should carry an EV of at least $1,000 t

Mkt attention for now is on Carr Boyd which easily underwrites the current share price,

But Irwin Hills and Marilliana are where the real potential lie, if YML/MRE bring Irwin Hills online via the Murrin Murrin plant YML will be set to become a small Mid Cap producer, test work and drilling are ongoing at Irwin Hills

Buy depth suggests Carr Boyd study not too far off, I'd expect it this week

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

GME have just releaed a feasibility study on their Nickel project near Murrin Murrin which shows that using a long term nickel spot of US $10/lb contrast with current US $23/lb it will net $3.7Billion in cashflows!

GME 100% interest in JORC Inferred 32.5Mt@ 1.27%Ni + 0.1%Co
YML 40% Interest in JORC 20Mt@ 1%Ni (Nickel) + 0.12%Co (Colbat)

GME Mkt Cap = 220m@ $1 = $220m
YML Mkt Cap = 60m+20m opies@ 40c = $32m

CAPEX for Murrin Murrin Project
GME = $455m
YML = next to zero as the JV 60% parnter is MRE which has the operating Murrin Murrin plant


Again this is only 1 of 3 projects for YML, I hope now those who um and err at my research can see why I am so bullish about YML,

It has the Iron Ore assets of UMC + the Nickel asset of GME and the Carr Boyd Cash Cow, can you imagine the SP if the mkt valued YML the way it values GME or UMC?

2. Irwin Hills JV YML-40% MRE-60%, Nickel, In W.A.
JORC 20Mt@ 1%Ni (Nickel) + 0.12%Co (Colbat)
High levels of Chloride so having trouble getting MRE to agree to Toll Treatment at its Murrin-Murrin Plant, although its Laterite Nickel its not that bad as MRE is the Laterite King!
MRE stated in their last Qtrly that "Preliminary mining studies are underway to determine the viability of direct trucking of ore to Murrin Murrin plant"

The cobalt upgrade pilot scale testwork is proceeding and will be reported upon once results are to hand

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

It certainly seems like they have alot of great things on their plate.

They are talking of starting up Carr Boyd in September!
Along with the other nickle prospect and Marianna they shore are going to be busy.

Definitely one to hold on for the long term, that is if you cant resist the short term profits

 

[spottygoose]

Projects update out just now:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070514/pdf/312fwy4zkt7fr9.pdf

10010001000001000

 

[ALFguy]

Yeah, looks like they've upgraded Carr Boyd to 611,000t but the FS won't be out now until late May. That's basically this week or next.

Edit: Why all the buying interest? Did I miss something in this announcement?

 

[UPKA]

Yeah, looks like they've upgraded Carr Boyd to 611,000t but the FS won't be out now until late May. That's basically this week or next.

Edit: Why all the buying interest? Did I miss something in this announcement?

I think the buying interests have always been there, its js a bunch of bargain hunters, there's a stand off btw 37c n 40c, looks like no one is willing to pay 40c+, all waiting in the mid 30c. When the report comes out, u'll definitely see the sp move.

 

[gringokonyo]

Yeah, looks like they've upgraded Carr Boyd to

Edit: Why all the buying interest? Did I miss something in this announcement?

Not that I've noted, it's just a repeat of the quarterly report. Maybe it's the last sentence in the Irwin-Coglia update -

'Regardless of the outcome of the various investigations by the Irwin JV to date, the company considers its share of the Ni-Co resources at Irwin–Coglia to constitute an asset with potentially very significant future value.'