Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

YML - Yilgarn Mining

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stoxclimber said:
Almost no action today, thought we might get some ASF buying but i guess it proved elusive!.. oh well, sit and wait..
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What is also interesting is the fact that Nickel has surged in value by more than 70% since Jan last year, yet the YML price has remained static over this period, which is absurd given their proven Nickel reserves. Maybe it was overpriced last year?
 
Mozart56 said:
What is also interesting is the fact that Nickel has surged in value by more than 70% since Jan last year, yet the YML price has remained static over this period, which is absurd given their proven Nickel reserves. Maybe it was overpriced last year?
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Well.... remember that the Feaso study at Carr-Boyd isn't due until April, then production I doubt could start within 5-6 months of that, so it might be a bit too far off to get excited by today's spot prices. But having said that I remember BDG going nuts in May on the gold rally (SP up to ~$2.20) when full production won't start there for a couple of years!!!

On another note. What are you predicting for Iron Ore contracts in 2008? Will there be another increase? Last 3 years (I think) were 75%, 19%, then 9.5%...
 
Kipp said:
On another note. What are you predicting for Iron Ore contracts in 2008? Will there be another increase? Last 3 years (I think) were 75%, 19%, then 9.5%...
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Yes, I think there will be another increase, albeit a more modest one. YML seems to have ridden the storm reasonably well, and there is still plenty of depth left in the 20's for bargain hunters. With Nickel still at $44,405/T + the prospects look very good for both commodities. The other metals certainly look a bit more shaky.
 
Mozart, I know its a wee bit annoying but like I said, don't expect much until April,

See I want to get more shares in YML, I already have a few and am holding about 800k options, but want say another 500k shares, but as I know that Carr Boyd etc aren't due out till april I can focus on other plays for now ierights issues in GRL, BYR PXR and so on,

But come april I and I think alot of other followers will be back in force, so now is the time for smart accumulation as April will be buyers scramble,

Also good to see GME having success on its Nickel Laterite operations around the YML/MRE Murrin Murrin program

See you in late March/ early April ;)
 
Just wondering how you get the EV figures for these YT

Attributable Value
Irwin Hills @$2.50lb Ni =$50m, YML 40%= $20mRemember Laterite (low grade) No Cap-Ex as can be treated at JV partner MRE's Murrin Murrin Plant,

Carr Boyd @ $5lb Ni + $2lb Cu = $150m, YML's up to 90%= $135mJV with Cos Min, Excellent Open Pittable Options and scoping study due very soon!

Marilliana 30Mt @ $5t = $150m,
Elephant Ground, possibly only 5% of total size, excellent Infrastructure with BHP Rail Running Straight passed deposit! 50m of top soil, drill results due soon.

Total = Approx $300m or $3.75c a share
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skegsi said:
Just wondering how you get the EV figures for these YT
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:confused: Please explain question, do you mean why am I using those EV commodity prices ? ?

If so their not really EV per say but rather very conservative Gross Cashflow type figures

Marilliana is a no brainer, @ current Fe price of $80/t its pretty safe to say $5t is very very conservative!

As for others, Nickel is almost $30/lb so using $5 for higher grade Carr Boyd and $2.50 for Laterite grade Iriwn is also easy,

Copper is say $3.30 - $3.70 (note all prices are AUD) so $2 actually seems a wee bit high, should probably be $1.50 to be safe
 
oops. what threw me was that they were so low. didn't realise they were commodity prices. I agree "no brainer". I am just trying to learn how to put all this into spreadsheet and thought I was way off, but now realised wasn't being conservative enough with prices.
Cheers
 
skegsi said:
oops. what threw me was that they were so low. didn't realise they were commodity prices. I agree "no brainer". I am just trying to learn how to put all this into spreadsheet and thought I was way off, but now realised wasn't being conservative enough with prices.
Cheers
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Hey skegsi, I always prefer to underestimate, that way we're surprised to the upside,


Keep in mind Carr Boyd feasibility will be staged so don't expect a $150m Value for the project, they may only do 10% to begin with etc but even $15m Value on a stock with a mkt cap of $12m and $4m cash would speak volumes of its potential,

Clearly though the real upside is in Marilliana, a development of the existing 30Mt Iron Resource would yield much much more than $5t, but even at $5t = $150m
 
Bit more volume today. Bargain hunters have been scooping up at 21c. Not sure who would be selling, because that is a loss maker at that price if they were recent purchases. Obviously too impatient to wait a few weeks. Will it go any lower? Surely sub 20c would trigger a buy up?
 
Thats what I would like to know. I bought in early so I am only out a few hindred but, Im not sure what this correction brings, can It go much lower?? Can I handle having almost half my small net worth in this stock or sell out an dcome back in when it is safer??
any thoughts appreciated.
 
Ants, remember JMS?
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Thats whats funding this foray into yml and byr. I'd hate to lose it and I also remember selling near bottom, a couple of others in that last correction and shortly after it all came back up -- geez I hope its the same this time (fingers crossed, now theres some tech analysis for ya!) Ok Im stayin in.....atleast till mon morn,lol
 
Like I said, fundamentals haven't changed, Nickel and Iron ore aren't collapsing because Chinese stock market lost 8% the other day,

Nickel is actually at record highs and Iron Ore is too,

I wonder how low it can go, I'm gonna sit back like a vulture and wait, if I was a real dog I'd turn bearish on YML to cause panic selling so I could pick up shares really cheap,

To those who wonder if there is value here, all I can offer is the following

Current Mkt cap $12, $4m cash = EV of $8m

So $8m for the following

2. Irwin Hills JV YML-40% MRE-60% JORC 20Mt@ 1%Ni (Nickel) + 0.12%Co (Colbat)

3. Carr-Boyd YML earning 51% from TIR (Now part of CSM Cons-Min) can earn up to 90%
JORC 600Kt's@ 1.4%Ni + 0.5%Cu all within 100m of the surface so open pittable!

4. Marillana 100% interest, Iron Ore, In W.A. 2kms from BHP’s Brockman Deposit 225Mt@ 60% Fe

Initial JORC Estimate was 30Mt@58.4%Fe but this was from a very small portion the lease,
I estimate it could be as big as 10kms x 350m wide x 15m thick = 240Mt@58%Fe
Follow up drilling to increase the JORC to happen in April
 
As a holder of options I am wondering if time is running out for them to end up with any value.I have relegated them to the dog kennel at this stage.
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
I if I was a real dog I'd turn bearish on YML to cause panic selling so I could pick up shares really cheap,


4. Marillana 100% interest, Iron Ore, In W.A. 2kms from BHP’s Brockman Deposit 225Mt@ 60% Fe
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mmmmmmmmm ;) ... incidentally Brockman is hundreds of K's away, Yandi is about 20K's..
 
nioka said:
As a holder of options I am wondering if time is running out for them to end up with any value.I have relegated them to the dog kennel at this stage.
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Don't say that! YT holds most of them I think. They aren't barking just yet.. but if things haven't moved by May I'd be getting a little nervous :)
 

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