Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XMJ - S&P/ASX 200 Materials

'Market Matters' has the vibe that the Materials Index is "like a coiled spring" (this phrase is copyrighted and only Market Matters can use it)
Note that the sub-indicies relative performances in the bar chart below is for the YTD, i.e last 10 months. Easy to imagine a 'rotation' of funds flow. Only my view, but by the same token, look at the Energy bar!

MM sent out a trade alert this morning wherein they informed subscribers that they were trimming a couple of specific resource stocks but reallocating the cash to another miner which I'll mention when the move isn't fresh. It's a stock that's had discussion here.
The materials optimism is mostly about Chinese CCP stimulatory intentions. Secondarily a possible Donald victory.

Quote:
"China’s top legislative bodies’ looming meeting on 4-8th November is slowly adding a bid tone to the ASX miners. Overnight, Reuters reported that China is weighing up a massive $US1.4 trillion in fiscal stimulus over the next few years, with talk that it might be even more if Trump wins next week’s election – Polymarket now have Trump as a 66.7% favourite! Either way, MM is confident that Beijing will forge ahead with its “whatever it takes” attitude to rekindling economic growth – great news for our embattled miners."

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I’m currently holidaying overseas but have been watching closely the developments of the US election, the ASX and the Chinese charts.

Whilst the US charts continue to break records, the ASX charts require some more heavy lifting to break through neutral territory at present. Even though we’ve broken through record highs we are still grinding along somewhat!

The Financials are kicking goals and have been for quite sometime and continue to do so since the ‘Trump’ win however the Materials Sector is somewhat lagging after some consolidation in recent weeks.

I now think the Materials sector is looking to move forward again from here based on some fundamentals.

Remembering this sector roared ahead in Sept based on Chinese stimulus.

The RSI needs to be watched closely.

All we need is for these two sectors to combine and perform strongly together and we’ll be well and truly on our way to smashing all time highs repeatedly.

I sense this could be the start of a very explosive uptrend for 2025 in our local markets. It’s time for the materials to shoot for the stars …

A bold prediction but the 18.6 year cycle (discussed previously ) should hopefully follow this trend.

Two charts below to watch closely in anticipation of what may lie ahead --> 1yr chart XMJ (Materials) and China’s positive momentum which is going through some consolidation but above its simple moving average (SMA).

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just remember China runs it's own race , it is a BIG importer AND exporter , and is building new friendships

and China has experienced tariff games before ( it knows how to strike back )
 
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