XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS

[markrmau]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

You mean us!!

Absolutely! As you wrote at some stage, "Forget about what SHOULD be happening, concentrate on what IS happening" (or words to that effect).

I guess the API contract is getting itself ready for a move. We just dont know the direction yet.

 

[DTM]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

XJO dropped 27 points today. Taking it from today's high, it actually fell 41 points.

Personally its too big a move to ignore and seems like a double top has just been formed.

 

[reichstag911]

XJO has just started next leg down...

XJO has just started next leg down...

 

[DTM]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Choppy waves out there. Time to put on longs...

 

[Mofra]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Choppy waves out there. Time to put on longs...

Big call DTM - with XJO closing near lows and oil above US$60
(hoping for red - short NWS )

 

[DTM]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

XJO up 8 points this morning at 11.30am although its not looking very strong.

Very choppy and looks weak across the whole board except maybe resources(RIO and BHP although still not too strong looking). Shorts coming on soon again I imagine.

 

[TjamesX]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Just an interesting article I came across in this weeks AI review - get ready for the flood of cash looking for a home over the next few months...

LORD, HERE COMES
THE FLOOD
If you’re wondering what is going to drive Australian equities throughout the third quarter of this year, than wonder no more, for the answer is plain liquid cash in search for a destination. GSJB Were’s institutional trader Richard Coppleson has calculated that dividend payments in July were 17.7% higher than in July last year and that makes for a very good omen for the coming
months. The main stocks paying dividends in July 2005 distributed $4.43bn to the market, while the same stocks last year in July 2004 paid out just $3.76bn. Thus dividends last month were 17.7% more, representing an extra $666m (biblical reference?).

Cash remains a big factor in Australia with Coppleson estimating the market could easily get swamped by more than $27bn seeking an investment return between July and the end of October. Institutions and retail will get at least $17bn in dividends (but probably more than $20bn) over the period, Coppleson believes, and then there are the $2bn from News Corp’s fi nal sell down, a probable $2bn from the Foodlands takeover, plus $7.2bn in monthly superannuation infl ows - so just those events could see the market swamped with $27bn in cash over the period. And it doesn’t stop here yet, as there’s still the extra money that is expected to fl ow into super from
the abolishing of the excess super tax from June 30 onwards plus the government’s Future Fund that kicks of with $16bn in the December quarter.

GSJBW believes that large resources and energy companies will this year pay out 60% more than last year. Has everyone brought his swimmers?

 

[DTM]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Also look at the strength of the Aussie dollar. It has risen with the Australian markets and the Aussie looks to keep on marching upwards against the USD.

Watch out for overseas hedge funds looking for a place to invest their US dollars.

 

[markrmau]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Starting to look toppy isn't it.

(trading not finished on this graph yet)

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Regarding divergences between futures and the present value of the index, can anyone comment on how reliable an indicator this is of future market direction and what would be considered a significant gap between the two?

 

[tech/a]

Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )

I'll just do the XAO that should be enough.

I expect according to my analysis the XAO to
fall to 4330 initially with a posible fall to 4175
A fall below the major trend would have my veiw as Short term bearish
This would occur at around 4100

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Just thought I'd mention that the only reason I have posted these charts is that Marketwaves wanted me to post some of my own chart analysis.

I dont really know why but all the same happy to oblige.

Ive never really done the prediction thing so I'll get just as big a laugh out of the result as anyone.

 

[doctorj]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Nothing wrong with trying new things - the clustering of fib lines supports your analysis. That said, the All Ords hasn't heeded any analysis that suggests a material downward movement lately.

 

[markrmau]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Here's a tip that Wayne pointed out - use the spi day contract for your analysis.

This gets rid of the 'lag' caused by the staggered market open. Your typical XAO or XJO has the wrong open - uses todays open on stocks starting with A or B, and uses yesterdays close on all the others.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=ApI&o=&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=bar&st=STO(14,3);

Great analysis though - particularly your pointing out that the recent bullish trend lines being broken.

 

[Rockon2]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Damn tough call right at the moment.. But Long pants for me

as i write this the dow is about to open , and its down - 66 on cfd .

But my charts are saying be a bull, so.. as they say time will tell cheers.

 

[Rockon2]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Just realised im posting stuff in the wrong room.

I was referring to trading the xjo (spi) overnight for 10/ 20 point moves.

Completely diff to the comments on XAO , .. cheers guys.

 

[RichKid]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

How could we forget this thread!!?? It seems the last downturn/correction was years ago and here we have another big one. Maybe when everyone starts getting bearish in this thread it'll be time to go long...

Note this is for the AllOrds XAO so post XJO charts in the XJO thread as the different numbers for the index levels may confuse people.

 

[Scratch]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Good evening,

does anyone have any idea as to the next support line .... my last was approx 4363. Being a newbie I am allowed to ask the silly question.


Disclaimer:

Who me?? I thought you supposed to know something first??!!

 

[TjamesX]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Did anyone else think todays price action for the index was very weird.

In an environment where we have tended to follow the US (the S&P moved up well over 1.5% last night), the XAO opened strongly then fell away sharply in the middle of the day to end up closing down.

I didnt see any particular local economic news to cause it

Hedge funds? Fund managers?

 

[mit]

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

TJamesX
It follows yesterdays over-reaction as well. Obviously, our market just wants to head south at the moment. I think that it will keep doing that until we get a rash of good profit reports and people think that there is value in the market again.

Scratch
Next support at 4260 which was the previous high. Next after that is 3895 which is the previous low. If that support breaks it means technically that we have gone beyond an intermediate correction and could be in a down trend.

MIT