XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS

DTM · 16 May 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

The XJO was down 50 points 30 minutes before todays close.

That's a huge move with enough momentum to continue on through tomorrow.

Buyers beware!!!! :goodnight

markrmau · 18 May 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Well the SPI contract has made a higher low. Maybe a higher high will be forthcoming (especially once the confession season ends). We shall see.

tech/a · 24 May 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Spot on Mark.
---Looking forward a bit.--

Aussiejeff · 24 May 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Hehe.

Your SHORTS are starting to look a bit tatty of late, Tech/a.

Interesting few weeks ahead ... can the upside continue to 4100?

Cheers,

AJ

tech/a · 24 May 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Hey I dont mind.
The way things are going I maybe able to buy a new pair!

DTM · 31 May 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Hmmm.... I think its down time again. Look for the retracement of the last rise.

Time to go short again I think.

doctorj · 31 May 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Could the market be waiting for direction from the US and Europe tonight after the public holiday yesterday?

DTM · 31 May 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

XJO dropped 37 points from today's high. Thats pretty impressive. The Dow looks weak to me too and I think it will fall tonight.

Today's fall could continue on through tomorrow and we could be heading into freefall country again.

ob1kenobi · 1 June 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

DTM said:
XJO dropped 37 points from today's high. Thats pretty impressive. The Dow looks weak to me too and I think it will fall tonight.

Today's fall could continue on through tomorrow and we could be heading into freefall country again.

I wasn't surprised. I suggested on Sunday night that it was due for a fall. See

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1418ised.

I agree, I think it is still weak, with issues like Multiplex, poor BOP figures, etc not helping. Lets see what happens.

Investor · 1 June 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Shorts - but it's winter.

Winter sales are on. Bargain hunting season. Just be careful what you buy. Caveat emptor.

DTM · 1 June 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Wow. What a wave. XJO up 42 points. Back to where we were yesterday???

Seems like the Fundies are moving back into the market.

Investor · 1 June 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Yes, a good day. Could be a tussle between fundies buying and foreigners selling in the days ahead, but I am merely guessing.

TjamesX · 1 June 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

The sentiment has definitly changed towards the XAO. How long it will last is? My crystal ball has a hunch that it will muddle around a bit for a while with a new high before 2005 is over - but those waiting for the 'real' correction may be left holding their breath for a while. The market has corrected and got rid of the excesses in many SP's.

I am still very bearish towards the Aussie economy medium term. We have seen the tip with profit downgrades in consumer related stocks.

The last run up it was time to sell consumer discretionary and property related stocks. I think the next run up will be the time to sell banks (I don't like these longer term).

and remember none of this matters as it all hinges on what the US does - note their position in the property cycle is delayed related to Aus, people over there are still seeing their properties rise in value, hence they still feel very wealthy despit their debt.

TJ

Battman64 · 1 June 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

The fifth year of the decade is known as the "Ascension year"
We are expecting another high before the year is out.
Presently I feel that we are a little overbought.
The month of May has once again given us some great trading opportunities.

DTM · 7 June 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

I think that it could be time to go short again.

Last couple of days has been unconvincing except for resource stocks maybe.

Banks seemed to have peaked so Banks may trigger the next drop.

Just my thoughts...

WaySolid · 7 June 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

DTM said:
I think that it could be time to go short again.

Last couple of days has been unconvincing except for resource stocks maybe.

Banks seemed to have peaked so Banks may trigger the next drop.

Just my thoughts...

I'm long the June SPI; 4 contracts average 4204. Longer term view is I want to catch the longer term view which I still see as very positive, bigger stops (while keeping acceptable % risk), longer holds till I can build a larger position.

Interested in what your positions are?

Smurf1976 · 7 June 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

DTM said:
I think that it could be time to go short again.

Last couple of days has been unconvincing except for resource stocks maybe.

Banks seemed to have peaked so Banks may trigger the next drop.

Just my thoughts...

I seem to be hearing more and more evidence of economic weakness over the past week especially.

Job ads down, Sydney house prices down, retail seems to be getting hit hard, oil's up to $54 again. The broad trend of economic weakness seems to extend beyond Australia from what I can tell.

Quite a few T/A and money supply type analysts seem willing to call a top in the US markets.

In short, I think the ASX is headed lower but the question is from what point? Could we see a retest (fail) of the March high? Just a thought.

DTM · 7 June 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

WaySolid said:
I'm long the June SPI; 4 contracts average 4204. Longer term view is I want to catch the longer term view which I still see as very positive, bigger stops (while keeping acceptable % risk), longer holds till I can build a larger position.

Interested in what your positions are?

Put Options on MBL, CBA and ANZ.

Smurf1976 said:
I seem to be hearing more and more evidence of economic weakness over the past week especially.

Job ads down, Sydney house prices down, retail seems to be getting hit hard, oil's up to $54 again. The broad trend of economic weakness seems to extend beyond Australia from what I can tell.

Quite a few T/A and money supply type analysts seem willing to call a top in the US markets.

In short, I think the ASX is headed lower but the question is from what point? Could we see a retest (fail) of the March high? Just a thought.

Music to my ears Smurf....

WaySolid · 8 June 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

DTM said:
Put Options on MBL, CBA and ANZ.

Music to my ears Smurf....

I tend to feed my bias as well, a danger when trading as the market doesn't appear to care what I think.

My thinking and money is that this economic news is really old news and the negativity in the US to equities in particular has hardly seemed to dent the market. Over the course of the next 5 years I can see huge upside in asset classes returning yield such as quality shares.

This is a demographic trend pushed by China and the boomers and could be of little solace if you aren't able to make money out of it.

It's also possible to be right in your view and still lose money trading though.

DTM · 9 June 2005

Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Banks starting to look weak now.

The US markets teetering on the brink. Tomorrow will be interesting.

XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS

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