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WTF - Wotif.com Holdings

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Re: WTF - Wotif.com

skc said:
WTF all round in the last 2 sessions. Today looks like capitulation? Big volume and finished well off the low. $4 was resistance / support from some time back.

Possibly a short term bounce back to $5?

View attachment 38612

On the fundamentals, yield is now a respectable 4.9%. EPS 25.34c which means a PE of 17.4. Earning growth historically at 20% p.a. so PEG <1 which seems somewhat attractive. Seems "well priced" at the moment IMO barring any major external shocks.
Click to expand...

Article in the Fin Review a while back regarding WTF needing to expand. The domestic market is not growing as much as anticipated and WTF lack of resources in the international area (covered by expedia) apparently will hurt due to cheaper international travel back in vogue (as a result of shaky Eco conditions = cheaper flights).

Hope that helps
 
Re: WTF - Wotif.com

I've been watching with some amazement :eek: WTF yet another bullet i have dodged, don't know how i keep doing it, i had WTF short-listed just a couple of weeks ago when i was looking to add a stock to my portfolio...i thought $5 would be support.

I thought the annual report was pretty dam impressive, lotsa good numbers and lots of SP potential i would think....WTF is a great little business, its just that the internet is so virtual, and i think its hard to have over whelming confidence in something that's so disposable.

There are very few barriers to entry, the margins are low, its all very cut throat and Gen Y are so fickle.
 
Re: WTF - Wotif.com

I think it is a good company and have been eyeing it like you however it still appears expensive.

I would want the yield to be around 7% before I got interested. So maybe around the $3-3.50 mark.

As you say too many risks in this company to pay a premium.
 
Re: WTF - Wotif.com

its a great business but they were trading on a pe of around 27 for a company lacking exponential growth and having no economic moat

now the share price has dropped the pe ratio looks a lot more attractive
stop losses would have caused the share price to keep droping

but it will bounce as fund managers love these kind of stocks which require little equity

wotif also only has 58% brand recognition in australia so as that improves business should increase
 
Re: WTF - Wotif.com

:)

Hi folks,

WTF ... will be alert for some positive news and a lift in price
over the next couple of days, as a positive time cycle comes
into play ... :)

have a great day

paul

:)

=====
 
Anyone got any current analysis on this stock?

Good time to buy.... floods are over, no more cyclones or fires :eek: (maybe)
 
matty77 said:
Anyone got any current analysis on this stock?

Good time to buy.... floods are over, no more cyclones or fires :eek: (maybe)
Click to expand...

stock still isnt that cheap in my opinion. The aussie dollar is another factor to consider...alot of people will be avoiding holidaying in Aus due to their currency not stretching very far...of course you could see these things as short term and as such presenting you with a nice chance to buy...but for me I would like to make an investment in this stock with the first digit being a 3 :)
just some things to consider..
 
VSntchr said:
stock still isnt that cheap in my opinion. The aussie dollar is another factor to consider...alot of people will be avoiding holidaying in Aus due to their currency not stretching very far...of course you could see these things as short term and as such presenting you with a nice chance to buy...but for me I would like to make an investment in this stock with the first digit being a 3 :)
just some things to consider..
Click to expand...

I Agree, price is the only thing that stop me from getting it

its business model is better than Webjet and more of Centrebet like

I already got Centrebet
 
matty77 said:
still on my watchlist, anyone have any analysis at the moment, FY reports just in...
Click to expand...

24c EPS so @ $4 WTF is trading at 16.7x PE. Pretty expensive for a company that didn't grow profits this year. Question is where is the growth going to come from to justify the high PE. If there isn't growth the market will continue to de-rate the stock probably down to PE 10 or 11. FLT and WEB are both good comparables and they trade at ~12-13x PE. That's the possible downside target in the short term imo.

On a fundamental business level it's hard to see WTF having a great deal of "moat" around their business. Their rooms are not always the cheapest and you have global players like Expedia and others fighting on their turf...
 
skc said:
24c EPS so @ $4 WTF is trading at 16.7x PE. Pretty expensive for a company that didn't grow profits this year. Question is where is the growth going to come from to justify the high PE. If there isn't growth the market will continue to de-rate the stock probably down to PE 10 or 11. FLT and WEB are both good comparables and they trade at ~12-13x PE. That's the possible downside target in the short term imo.

On a fundamental business level it's hard to see WTF having a great deal of "moat" around their business. Their rooms are not always the cheapest and you have global players like Expedia and others fighting on their turf...
Click to expand...

I agree about the pricing, they have specials which can be good value but for general booking I never use them (and I travel a fair bit). I can't see any moat either, the high RoE is a function of their business model not the business itself. Like a fund manager.
 
McLovin said:
I agree about the pricing, they have specials which can be good value but for general booking I never use them (and I travel a fair bit). I can't see any moat either, the high RoE is a function of their business model not the business itself. Like a fund manager.
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Not sure how to interpret that... but with the shareprice at 10x book value the high ROE exists on the balance sheet only and not for the investor's dollar.
 
skc said:
Not sure how to interpret that... but with the shareprice at 10x book value the high ROE exists on the balance sheet only and not for the investor's dollar.
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I mean the only reason the company has a high RoE is because any web business is usually people power intensive, and not much in the way of real assets on the BS. Often a high RoE can be an indicator of a moat, but not in this case.
 
McLovin said:
I mean the only reason the company has a high RoE is because any web business is usually people power intensive, and not much in the way of real assets on the BS. Often a high RoE can be an indicator of a moat, but not in this case.
Click to expand...

This makes sense. I was just nitpicking your choice of words (business model vs the business itself). :D
 
WTF is going on here.... share price down ~10% in two days after announcing a rise in profits of ~10% ?? Now I'm confused... and unhappy.:banghead:
 
Bazmate said:
WTF is going on here.... share price down ~10% in two days after announcing a rise in profits of ~10% ?? Now I'm confused... and unhappy.:banghead:
Click to expand...
Earnings growth does not always equal share price growth. You need to remember that if the market expects higher earnings growth than is reported, and all other things are equal, the share price is going to head south to factor this in.
 
Bazmate said:
WTF is going on here.... share price down ~10% in two days after announcing a rise in profits of ~10% ?? Now I'm confused... and unhappy.:banghead:
Click to expand...

16x earnings is quite full for a company that's expecting FY growth of between 9-13%. It's possible WTF best days of growth are behind it and PE is compressing; refer JBH.
 
This is one I'll certainly be keeping track of in the short term.

It has bottomed on much higher volume and then found a lower high on what looks like a bit of a shakeout.

The lowest volume today in a little while. I might even consider entry above $4.15. Have to look at it a bit more over the weekend.

Are others bullish or bearish on this one?
 

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