Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

World War III: Has it Started?

Thanks for getting involved you three...I always learn something when you guys show up!
 
Wealth inequality is fuelling so much frustration in many countries - will the frustration lead to a change movement that addresses the real problem or will the change movement just get hijacked by nutters like Trump that will redirect the frustration for a period to their own ends. Nutters saying whatever it takes for power and a discontent populace unsure about the root cause of their discontent is not a good combination for having faith that rationality and peace prevails.
The issue is that what is happening is exposing the inherent contradiction in the capitalist model: the cost of marginal production continues to get closer to zero with each technological advance but the rewards from production generated by the capital owners are growing. However, the means of production themselves also become cheaper as technological change spreads and they become more and more accessible to a wider range of people (including those who were not formally 'capital owners.'). Think things like the computers and the internet, 3D printing etc. for current examples. Eventually people can start producing more and more things themselves, especially if they are not constrained by providing labour to the capitalists as an employee, because the machines are doing it more and more of it now. There's already "maker" communities popping up all around the world sharing knowledge within.

Eventually this situation has to unwind because it cannot continue. I don't know how it unwinds, but it makes no sense that it doesn't. It could take decades, maybe more, or it could be swift.

As the need for human labour keeps decreasing because of technological advances governments across the world will be forced to take action. They can sit there now when a smaller proportion of the population cannot work because there are no jobs, but it only gets more pronounced from here. Universal wages or something similar is probably inevitable.

Historically instances of wealthy inequality seem to be cyclical... greed/exploitation phases that lasted until they reached a critical point where the exploited rebelled. Of course the greedy exploiters always come back for with a different scheme.
 
In the 90s productivity drove wage increases. After 2001 productivity slowed massively but wages kept growing because of the mining boom. Productivity is still flat, the mining boom is over so it's not surprising wage growth has stalled.

Alright I see, so you combined all wages and all productivity during the mining boom. Fair enough.

But na, that chart on productivity doesn't look right to those I've seen. Production goes up but real wages flat-lined or declined over the decades.
 
Alright I see, so you combined all wages and all productivity during the mining boom. Fair enough.

But na, that chart on productivity doesn't look right to those I've seen. Production goes up but real wages flat-lined or declined over the decades.

It's measuring y-o-y change in productivity.
 
Historically instances of wealthy inequality seem to be cyclical... greed/exploitation phases that lasted until they reached a critical point where the exploited rebelled. Of course the greedy exploiters always come back for with a different scheme.

The bad bit is not that the cycle reverses, it's how it reverses. It took a World War to blow up enough capital to reset the system last time. The Russians had a revolution.
 
The bad bit is not that the cycle reverses, it's how it reverses. It took a World War to blow up enough capital to reset the system last time. The Russians had a revolution.
Yep, and don't forget there is wealth inequality and nasty consequences littered all through history before the Industrial Revolution as well. Every circumstance is different, but it's always a case of powerful elites tugged too hard against the 'commoners.' I cannot think of an instance where it was settled peacefully.
 
Yep, and don't forget there is wealth inequality and nasty consequences littered all through history before the Industrial Revolution as well. Every circumstance is different, but it's always a case of powerful elites tugged too hard against the 'commoners.' I cannot think of an instance where it was settled peacefully.

If we had a government that recognised that such middle -upper class welfare like negative gearing on residential property was increasing wealth inequality and fostering class resentment, and therefore agreed to discontinue such schemes, maybe we could avoid a full scale class "war".
 
Yep, and don't forget there is wealth inequality and nasty consequences littered all through history before the Industrial Revolution as well. Every circumstance is different, but it's always a case of powerful elites tugged too hard against the 'commoners.' I cannot think of an instance where it was settled peacefully.

On the positive side of the ledger democracies (especially parliamentary ones) have a pretty good record of adjusting, even if it takes a few wobbles to get there.

We're living in the 1930s at the moment.
 
If we had a government that recognised that such middle -upper class welfare like negative gearing on residential property was increasing wealth inequality and fostering class resentment, and therefore agreed to discontinue such schemes, maybe we could avoid a full scale class "war".

That's not a handout, it's a straight up tax perk. Or following on from the discussion about productivity v wages; capital taking a bigger slice of the pie increases company profits. Millionaire retirees receive that as a dividend which isn't just tax free they get all the tax the company paid back too as a cash refund. Employees, who are getting less reward for their own productivity increase get told their taxes will go up.

Yep, I'd hate to be on the wrong side of the wedge.
 
That's not a handout, it's a straight up tax perk. Or following on from the discussion about productivity v wages; capital taking a bigger slice of the pie increases company profits. Millionaire retirees receive that as a dividend which isn't just tax free they get all the tax the company paid back too as a cash refund. Employees, who are getting less reward for their own productivity increase get told their taxes will go up.

Yep, I'd hate to be on the wrong side of the wedge.

I don't think the new money in their bank account know the difference between a handout and a tax perk man.
 

China is building up its forces at the rate of the UK every 4 months. They appear to want to have a force so great the whole of the rest of the world would not dare intervene. Anyway, we the rest of the world buy goods from China at such a rate we are paying for these . Australia is set to have an armed nuclear Navy far exceeding present plans but will it be too late?
 
eek. I'm confused. Is WW3 the same as (the) www?

But seriously, the idea is still around, the context seems to have changed.
China is building up its forces at the rate of the UK every 4 months. They appear to want to have a force so great the whole of the rest of the world would not dare intervene.
With Ukraine/ Russia exercising minds it is time to revisit:
At the end of the Cold War, the US army had almost 800,000 troops in the active component. Today, the army has 480,000,” [an analyst] says. “In the late 1980s, the navy had nearly 600 ships. Today, they have fewer than 300. Air Force pilots in the Cold War used to fly 200-plus hours a year, today it’s 120.
"Comparisons with China are also frightening on a material capacity and readiness basis, but China’s experience in terms of command and control in the battlefield is not as superior as America’s .... in America’s current state, it could not fight two theatres of war in Europe and the Indo-Pacific like it did in World War II".

...............
But it’s a lot harder to track the US cyber and intelligence-gathering capabilities. In 2020, a record $US85.8 billion was approved in the US intelligence budget consisting of two major components: the National Intelligence Program and the Military Intelligence Program. This includes everything from open-source intelligence collection to signals, imagery and human intelligence – all of which have been crucial in the Ukraine conflict.

Former CIA senior intelligence officer Martijn Rasser, now a director of the Technology and National Security Program at the Centre for a New American Security, says it’s hard to measure the reservoir of US cyber capability and intelligence at any one point, let alone in Ukraine.

“What’s been remarkable ... is that Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials are still broadcasting on television, that they’re on radio, they’re all over social media, and it appears that Russia is powerless to stop it,” he says. “I was expecting Russians to decimate Ukraine in cyberspace. For whatever reason, Russia really hasn’t used cyber as an instrument of war, much at all in this conflict.”

Microsoft’s Threat Intelligence Centre in Seattle was reported as playing a crucial role in this. Three hours after the Russian invasion, Microsoft identified a piece of “wiper” malware aimed at the country’s government ministries and financial institutions and reported it to Ukraine’s top cyber defence authority and the White House’s deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technologies Anne Neuberger. Microsoft had the code to block the malware and shared it with other prospective targets of Russian aggression.



Australia is set to have an armed nuclear Navy far exceeding present plans but will it be too late?
is 2040 too late?
 
Saudis are in talks with Syria and snubbed Biden. Iran, Russia, Venezuela. Lot of the big energy players are not friendly. And this decade is all about energy.
 
David Starkey on Putin, Russia and the impotence of the West.

Brilliant

 
David Starkey on Putin, Russia and the impotence of the West.

Brilliant
Interesting commentary, he will be cancelled for sure, no one will want to hear what he has to say. ?
I started a thread 'will China end up owning the World', I think it is only a matter of time, they are much more advanced than Russia and Russia is showing that we really can't do anything to stop them.
I'm not suggesting a war, because really I don't think the West is in any state to fight a war, which country has the ability to gear up its manufacturing to build a war machine to resist China and its manufacturing base? Germany has the ability and the manufacturing, but relies on energy from Russia. The U.K closed down its manufacturing in the 1960's and 70's, the U.S will be more concerned about protecting itself, so really what does the West do? Interesting times ahead IMO.
 
Interesting commentary, he will be cancelled for sure, no one will want to hear what he has to say. ?
I started a thread 'will China end up owning the World', I think it is only a matter of time, they are much more advanced than Russia and Russia is showing that we really can't do anything to stop them.
I'm not suggesting a war, because really I don't think the West is in any state to fight a war, which country has the ability to gear up its manufacturing to build a war machine to resist China and its manufacturing base?
The manufacturing base that the West pays for.
 
The manufacturing base that the West pays for.
Well I wouldn't mind a dollar, for how many times we have said that, but I think the chooks are coming home to roost mate.
The West has been taken over by the sector, that believe if we behave nicely and do the right thing, everyone else will treat us nicely. I think this Ukraine thing is proving that isn't always the case. Hopefully it isn't the tip of the iceberg, otherwise we can forget about renewable energy, that will be the last thing on people's minds.
 
Top