Will Labor change the 'No New Mines' policy? And its effect...

[Sean K]

This has been discussed in various threads but there still seems to be some conjecture over what the leaders are saying.


From my understanding, at this very moment:

*Rudd's stand is that he wants the 'No New Mines' policy changed to give States the discretion to mine or not. (This doesn't necessarily mean the Nat Committee will endorse his policy, but highly likely)

*QLD's Beattie and WA's Cartpenter have said they will not allow mining if it was up to them.

*SA's Rann is actively marketing for the industry in SA and policy change. He's out there with a spade digging as we speak.

*NT's Martin has said that if it was up to her, she wouldn't allow it, but NTs mining laws are under Fed control, so it's open.


Now, if this is going to be made 'policy' at the end of the month, there are some clear implications for U explorers/developers in the country.

SA will start processing mining applications immediately, while QLD and WA will probably formalise State policy to prevent U mining in their States. NT no change.

How this will effect individual company's with tennaments located in the above locations is up for discussion.


References for the above:

Beattie aims to rule out uranium mining - http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=257969

U-turn on uranium policy - QUEENSLAND'S brief flirtation with uranium mining is over.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,21486213-3102,00.html

Carpenter stands tough on no uranium mining policy - http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200703/s1880102.htm

News: Rann will lobby to change uranium policy - http://www.ministers.sa.gov.au/news.php?id=1433

 

[Sean K]

How this will effect individual company's with tennaments located in the above locations is up for discussion.

Perhaps I'll discuss it with myself

Perhaps shifting into SA/NT explorers/developers might be a good thing?

I still think good low cap explorers in the other States might go OK, but it seems to me that if SA developers can get a lisense to mine in the next few weeks/months, they may be at some advantage at actually making some money.

I'll be putting togther a list of SA/NT companies to look at shortly.

Unless, anyone wants to argue that WA/QLD companies are the way to go, even if the States hold the ban on U mining?

 

[nizar]

Perhaps I'll discuss it with myself

Perhaps shifting into SA/NT explorers/developers might be a good thing?

I still think good low cap explorers in the other States might go OK, but it seems to me that if SA developers can get a lisense to mine in the next few weeks/months, they may be at some advantage at actually making some money.

I'll be putting togther a list of SA/NT companies to look at shortly.

Unless, anyone wants to argue that WA/QLD companies are the way to go, even if the States hold the ban on U mining?

Good discussion here, I've nothing to add so far but im looking forward to that list...

Speaking of low cap explorers, ERO looks to be back in blue skies with an all time high close.

In terms of SA, in my opinion MTN is a stand out and still cheap. (I hold)

In NT, you cant go past EME, high grade, shallow resource.
(Dont hold but if i did want some JRL is an ideal entry see my post on JRL thread)

 

[Sean K]

Good discussion here, I've nothing to add so far but im looking forward to that list...

Thanks Niz. I did a bit of research this arvo to try and find a complete list but some of the data is old and quite a few have already floated off their U assets making things more difficult to guage. Need to cross check info against current anns too. Will probably still be out. Wish I had have done this seriously 3 years ago! 2 years ago even. 6 months even!!!! Still, can't complain, we've been riding this wave for a little while.

 

[56gsa]

WA will probably formalise State policy to prevent U mining in their States.

JOURNALIST: Onto uranium mining. Under your policy, will the States be able to choose whether they can mine or open up uranium mines?

RUDD: What I’ve said consistently is that when it comes to the National Conference of the Labor Party, what we’re looking at is the whole question of opening up the export regime for uranium exports into the future. Local State governments, as I’ve said repeatedly in Western Australia in the past, retain ultimate control over land use planning decisions. That’s ultimately a matter for them. Our responsibility at the national level is to make sure that we’ve got the most effective regime possible to govern the export of uranium.
http://www.alp.org.au/media/0407/dsiCCloo020.php

Kennas I thought WA had legislated against U mining so no need to do anything there - altho based on the Burke / Grill fiasco I can't see them staying in at the next election (but thats 2009)

Interesting - I seem to remember someone saying the original purpose of Labors 3-mine policy was to protect the domestic fledgling industry from being swamped by international interests so the U was only for Aust companies to dig up - this then got coopted by Richo in the early 80s when he was trying to win the green vote.

Btw - dates for the conference: 27-29 April

 

[Kimosabi]

I'm going to ring Brian Burke and get him to sort this out for us...

Problem Solvered



Ha, this reminds me of a Joke

Where do you hide a million dollars?

In Burke's Backyard

 

[Halba]

QLD, SA, NT appear fine. QLD is just OK as Beattie has made his backflip public and in the overseas light.

I'd avoid WA.

 

[Brujo]

Hi 56gsa

That quote is classic "Rudd-speak"......say a lot of words, but don't commit to anything in concrete that can be used against you later! It can only be a matter of time before people wake up to him.

What has he actually said? Something like it is up to the states to decide whether they will support it, but up to the feds to provide the framework for future exports? Can't hedge your bets any better than that!

As to ALP losing power in WA at the next election, that is no monty. The WA Liberals are in total disarray at present and have made little inroads in the polls, despite the CCC hearings exposing the WA government as corruption riddled and self-serving to the core.

I heard a phrase on talk-back radio the other day, where a former politician referred to the "two Christmasses" effect, the friend of all politicians. It goes something like this: what was the main political issue of the moment the Christmas before last??? Few will remember. When we get our chance at the polls in a couple of years the CCC will be long gone. The WA election is far from a foregone conclusion.

As to U-mining generally, my personal belief is that it is only a matter of time before it happens in all states. As the environmental arguments mount against coal and alternatives sources, the oil price continues under upward pressure, and the number of potential U-mines increases, so the pressure will increase.

 

[Sean K]

QLD is just OK as Beattie has made his backflip public and in the overseas light.

Last statement by Beattie was NO to U mining. Can you prov a reference for the latest backflip Halba. Thanks.

 

[Sean K]

As to U-mining generally, my personal belief is that it is only a matter of time before it happens in all states. As the environmental arguments mount against coal and alternatives sources, the oil price continues under upward pressure, and the number of potential U-mines increases, so the pressure will increase.

I agree, but the question is what is going to happen at the end of the month. I think this is important to some U explorers immediate future.

 

[Sean K]

I've started summarising South Australian explorers/developers to see where some potential might be. (NT to follow)

Some of these have run of course and it's a matter of judging whether they are still undervalued or have more potential to appreciate. Must also consider takeover spec of some of these.

I haven't included the companies that have already been taken over or who are producing. Some of this 'analysis' is pretty basic, so if anyone wants to add some specific analysis I will compile it with the relevant stock and repost the details as they come. Comparing lbs U to EV is what I would like to add in here where possible, but no dramatic assumptions will be made.

If there are any I have missed please let me know. Also, if there are any errors here I applogise and will fix as necessary.

In alphabetical order:

Alliance Resources (AGS)
250m shares @ 2.49 = $620m

Arkaroola Copper-Gold-Uranium Project, SA (Quasar JV Alliance 25% Free Carried till)

Alliance’s joint venture partner in the Arkaroola Project is Quasar Resources Pty Ltd ,an affiliate of Heathgate Resources Pty Ltd. Heathgate is the owner and operator of the Beverley Uranium Mine, immediately to the east of the Arkaroola tenement.

Scoping study to commence once initial JORC received. It’s well overdue. Lonsec estimate the total resource to come in around 110m lbs contained U3O8.

Arkaroola also hosts two gold projects M1 and M2 and the tenement is prospective for further IOCG(U) deposits.

http://www.allianceresources.com.au/index.asp

Marathon (MTN)
58m shares fully diluted @ $5.10 = $295m

EPLs all over the Gawler Craton, Adelaide Geosyncline and Curnamona (Mt Gee)

Key project Mt Gee (has minor satellite sites)
59m tn @ 0.068% for 80m lbs contained U

http://www.marathonresources.com.au/index.html

Pepinnini (PNN)
70m shares @ 2.80 = $196m

Curnamona Project (South of Gould’s Dam, NW of Radium Hill, W Honeymoon)
26 known U prospects other than Crocker Well and Mt Victoria
Sinosteel JV PNN 40%

Crocker Well
19.8m lbs U cut off 250 ppm, 14.8m lbs U cut off 300 ppm

Potential to be in production in 3 years (from the company)

http://www.pepinnini.com.au/

Scimitar Resources (SIM)
52m shares fully diluted @ .96= $49.9m

20,000 sq km across WA, SA and NT

Lake Frome region, SA (highly prospective tenements amongst Beverley, Gould’s Dam, Honeymoon, Mt Gee, Oban)

also

Amadeus Basin, NT (east and south of Angela and Pamela)

http://www.scimitarresources.com.au/

Stellar Resources (SRZ)
60m shares @ .28 = $16.8m

Warrior Palaeochannel (Toro JV SRZ 30% free carry)

The Warrior uranium mineralisation was defined by exploration drilling in the late 1970s by PNC Exploration Australia Pty Ltd (PNC). It is the fourth largest known palaeochannel hosted uranium occurrence in South Australia (behind Beverley, Honeymoon and Goulds Dam - all of which are in the Curnamona Craton).

Pre JORC Compliant Deposit 11.8Mt@0.034 = 8.8M lb's u3o8

Drilling commenced 21 Mar

Kingoonya Palaeochannel - Tarcoola (Uranium SA JV SRZ 30% free carry)

USA has recently announced its plans to commence in the March 2007 quarter, a detailed EM survey to collect more airborne data over Stellar’s joint venture area, prior to planning drill testing which is scheduled for the June quarter 2007. USA’s joint venture with Stellar covers over 2,500km² of prospective palaeochannel ground in the Tarcoola region of central South Australia.

IOCG (U) potential

Stellar holds ground in the highly prospective eastern Gawler Craton area in which the Olympic Dam, Prominent Hill and Carrapateena ("IOCGU") deposits are situated.

In late 2006 we entered into a JV over IOCGU prospective ground at Cowell on the Eyre Peninsula.

http://www.stellarresources.com.au/index.html

Toro Energy (TOE)
145m shares @ 1.11 = $160m

OXR 25%
Minatour 25%
BHP 1% (interesting)

TOE was formed through the amalgamation of the uranium interests of Oxiana and Minotaur.

Extensive SA/NT EPLs, covering 26,000 km².

Warrior JV with SRZ. They’re hoping for a JORC by 2008.

Napperby in NT (acquired off DYL - Historical 6K tn U non JORC)

Resource Capital Report:

http://www.toroenergy.com.au/ovw_28_3_07.pdf

http://www.toroenergy.com.au/

Venture Minerals
45m shares @ 35 = $15.7m

Exploration in WA and SA.

Major project in SA is Churchill Dam, and IOCGU attempt on the edge of the Gawler Craton.

The Gawler Craton project includes three projects within the central and southeastern Gawler region. Churchill Dam sits within the Olympic Dam IOCGU Province of the Gawler Craton in South Australia. It is approximately 75 km southwest of the Olympic Dam-Wirrda Well-Acropolis IOCGU group which is dominated by the world class Olympic Dam deposit. Olympic Dam is currently the world’s 17th largest Cu and 3rd largest U producer. Churchill Dam is also 95 km west of the recently discovered Carrapateena IOCGU Prospect. The project has established an IOCGU target with strong geological similarities to the above occurrences.

Some fantastic intercepts in first 2 drill holes but recently smashed by market for no apparent reason.

http://www.ventureminerals.com.au/

 

[Brujo]

Yes Kennas. For those taking a shorter term view, particularly.

I know I'm certainly building in an additional large risk element to the valuations of these U-players. Would be interested to see what general opinion is on SMM and others if ban is not overturned!!

It will also be interesting to watch the SP action as the ALP conference gets closer and is in progress. We'll see what happens when the numbers start getting leaked.....

Somehow, I don't think I would want to be holding if the decision was against. SMM will certainly mine one day some year, but the market would discount heavily (at risk of stating the obvious) if not allowed to move down the production path in the near future!

It's a bit weird how bearish I've become in the 36 hours since SMM has soared to $6. I think innately I must be happy with reaching that price level!

 

[Jimminy]

I agree, but the question is what is going to happen at the end of the month. I think this is important to some U explorers immediate future.

Kennas,

the answers are already out there. Rudd has said what he intends, State premiers have said what they intend. Hence SA & NT stocks are soaring.

My belief is that what is out in the media will transpire. 3 mines policy out federally, but states to make their own decisions. Avoid QLD & WA stocks for the next 2-3 weeks.

I don't think we need to ask the question what is going to happen at the end of the month. It is decided.

 

[Sean K]

Kennas,

the answers are already out there. Rudd has said what he intends, State premiers have said what they intend. Hence SA & NT stocks are soaring.

My belief is that what is out in the media will transpire. 3 mines policy out federally, but states to make their own decisions. Avoid QLD & WA stocks for the next 2-3 weeks.

I don't think we need to ask the question what is going to happen at the end of the month. It is decided.

Jimminy, punters are still pumping money into WA and QLD explorers.....I don't think the message is really out there yet.

Having said that, I still believe selected WA/QLD explorers might do OK if they pluck a great resource, but switching into SA/NT seems like the sensible thing to me.

I'm not sure if it's fully factored in yet.

 

[Julia]

Kennas,

Halba is right about Beattie's back flip.
I recall hearing something to this effect on the radio a couple of weeks back.
A quick Google search has offered the following link as verification:

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=32&ContentID=24269

 

[Sean K]

Kennas,

Halba is right about Beattie's back flip.
I recall hearing something to this effect on the radio a couple of weeks back.
A quick Google search has offered the following link as verification:

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=32&ContentID=24269

Hi Julia,

Actually, that article is dated 23 Mar. The article on the first post is 01 April.

There actually is no backflip from what I can see. Beattie has said in the past he would abide what the Nat Labor Party dictated and if they said the States are to allow mining then QLD would, but he was opposed to mining himself. Rudd then came out and said that he would leave it up to the States. With that previso, Beattie then said he would not allow mining.

So, Halba is wrong.

I may be corrected if there is any new info out.

 

[mmmmining]

I believe at this moment, Peter Beaties' position is no uranium mining if Rudd not order him to do so.

Beaties' position will largely depend on how much opposition from union, and how much uranium that people can find in QLD.

Nevertheless, he will enjoy his newly found power to manipulate people in QLD for his political gain.

Nothing is alive, but is not dead yet.

 

[56gsa]

I've started summarising South Australian explorers/developers to see where some potential might be. (NT to follow)

Thanks for this Kennas - Some others:

CUY - is proposing in situ leach at Oban deposit in Curnamona but hasn't defined JORC yet

HAV - as well as holding 50% of CUY they also have Radium Hill hard rock U in Curnamona which produce 1000t in 1950s - doing analysis and hope to drill before mid-year

TAS is spinnning off Fission Energy which has large prospective U areas in Gawler Craton

UXA - don't know much bout this but current SPP to fund explore of Gawler Craton holdings, 65m shares 45m options

also with your NT review SRK are spinning of Alara Ltd (LAR) which has land near EMEs deposit

thanks again

 

[Sean K]

Thanks for this Kennas - Some others:

Will add them in. Thanks!