Why Silver

explod · 21 September 2012

There is a lot to the story of silver, the growing shortage, important technological new uses of which most of you will be aware. So the ratio is out of whack in my view and will return to about the 30 to 1 region, historically 15 to 1.

In my view I see gold going to about $2,300 in the next run, which is in percentage line with the half dozen breakouts we have had since about 2001.

So roughly on that basis a silver price of around $76 in the next run up is perhaps quite feasible.

Would make stocks like CCU and AYN very attractive.

Joules MM1 · 21 September 2012

explod said:
There is a lot to the story of silver, the growing shortage,.......

i got an email this week from someone who's been buying silver over the last two years:

julian ct ‏@joulesmm1

email quote of the day by iTrader "try asking for delivery date for 5k of silver and you can't get a straight answer no matter how you ask"

===================================

here's a video from one of the Najarian brothers who are both well known in the CME as traders, clued-up characters.....buying silver has further to go than gold.......
http://www.optionmonster.com/drj_bl...ds_presidency_73180.html#.UFtQ1JUhzvd.twitter

jancha · 21 September 2012

explod said:
There is a lot to the story of silver, the growing shortage, important technological new uses of which most of you will be aware. So the ratio is out of whack in my view and will return to about the 30 to 1 region, historically 15 to 1.

In my view I see gold going to about $2,300 in the next run, which is in percentage line with the half dozen breakouts we have had since about 2001.

So roughly on that basis a silver price of around $76 in the next run up is perhaps quite feasible.

Would make stocks like CCU and AYN very attractive.

Why those two companies in particular?
Looking at macroaxis site SVL & CCU have less than 1% chance of bankruptcy whilst AYN is more than a 67% chance? Would SVL be less of a risk factor than AYN?

young-gun · 21 September 2012

Buckfont said:
I bought mine early last year in 1kg lots. Mebee the rules have changed. I`d just give them a call and talk turkey.. If cash is tight a 5kg bag may be a bit much. If the demand is there though they may not compromise. Hope you sort it.

Headed down to Ainslee this morning. You can buy 66 rounds however you like, from 1 piece to 10 kilos if you wish, just in case anyone else was curious and in brissy. Thanks for the tip buck.

Joules MM1 said:
forget gold.....go silver.......

+1

explod said:
There is a lot to the story of silver, the growing shortage, important technological new uses of which most of you will be aware. So the ratio is out of whack in my view and will return to about the 30 to 1 region, historically 15 to 1.

In my view I see gold going to about $2,300 in the next run, which is in percentage line with the half dozen breakouts we have had since about 2001.

So roughly on that basis a silver price of around $76 in the next run up is perhaps quite feasible.

Would make stocks like CCU and AYN very attractive.

I think $76 will just be the beginning explod.

I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, and am unsure of the validity of the accusations made that there is heavy manipulation in the silver market eg hueg shorts by JP morg. Just wondering if anyone knew anything about it, and if there is actually any substantial evidence that would support heavy manipulation to bring the price of silver down?

Almost everything I read either comments, points to, or supports the claims, is it all BS?

With a bit of luck spain or greece or someone will go under, drop the price substantially, and present a huge buying opportunity. Either that or it will simply continue to go up and up with a few corrections. jmo.

Buckfont · 21 September 2012

Headed down to Ainslee this morning. You can buy 66 rounds however you like, from 1 piece to 10 kilos if you wish, just in case anyone else was curious and in brissy. Thanks for the tip buck.

Good on ya.

Just out of curosity what did you pay per coin and was there a big difference buying singly and in bulk? Bf

young-gun · 21 September 2012

Buckfont said:
Headed down to Ainslee this morning. You can buy 66 rounds however you like, from 1 piece to 10 kilos if you wish, just in case anyone else was curious and in brissy. Thanks for the tip buck.

Good on ya.

Just out of curosity what did you pay per coin and was there a big difference buying singly and in bulk? Bf

The difference between buying a kilo, and buying individual coins equating to a kilo came to about $12 difference(negligible). I think it was around $13+ a coin, its fixed to the spot price. I havent done the math as to what percentage of an ounce each coin is.

Their buy-back rate was $12 something, I didn't write it down so can't remember exact figures sorry. I'm not overly concerned about the price, just trying to buy around the dips atm, guess it can be argued that now isn't a dip.

explod · 21 September 2012

In that silver paper market there are about 200 paper ounces to each physical ounce of silver. Done under the guise of maintaining an orderly market, but if that is not manipulation at that high count then I do not know what is.

I have been accumulating 1966 rounds for a number of years now. Three coins are very very close to an ounce of silver, each coin in fact contains 80% silver.

Mr Z · 21 September 2012

explod said:
In that silver paper market there are about 200 paper ounces to each physical ounce of silver. Done under the guise of maintaining an orderly market, but if that is not manipulation at that high count then I do not know what is.

I have been accumulating 1966 rounds for a number of years now. Three coins are very very close to an ounce of silver, each coin in fact contains 80% silver.

The Comex has around a 1% delivery rate, so that is 100:1 and there is available inventory in excess of that. You also have no way of knowing how much paper is held as a legitimate industry hedge as that metal never hits the Comex but it is real, most users of silver in any quantity will hedge exposure simply because of the volatility in the metals price. The apparent ratio of physical silver to paper obligations is difficult to gauge as the figures are not really transparent across the industry. Regardless that is no indicator of a certain manipulation, you really need to consider market control issues such as the concentration of market power in a small number of players hands. Proving manipulation would rest on proving an unjustifiable concentration of contracts that have been traded in a predatory fashion. The numbers to do that are simply not available outside of the exchange and the CFTC... Butler is estimating by subtraction, he is not privy to the detail. The reality is likely to be that JPM has been trading a smaller position for it's own account BUT it did so with the advantage of knowing how its customers where positioned. You only need to control the margin if you have that sort of data and you can time things very well. That by no means give you total control like some seem to believe but it would give you huge opportunity to profit. If the latter is the case it would be very hard to prove manipulative activity in a court of law however likely it looked. Personally I don't think they should be able to trade against their customers at all, the Volcker Rule makes sense to me, but I can also see that it could be end run quite easily.

Bart Chilton seems to be convinced all is not right... but proof beyond reasonable doubt will never likely happen IMO.

young-gun · 21 September 2012

explod said:
In that silver paper market there are about 200 paper ounces to each physical ounce of silver. Done under the guise of maintaining an orderly market, but if that is not manipulation at that high count then I do not know what is.

So this is a fact? I have just had trouble finding any concrete evidence of it other than just reading about it as a side note in articles. If there really is 200 paper ounces to each physical then this is surely that's a system that will eventually collapse/fail. What happens when SHTF and people holding paper try to redeem for physical?

Or if JP morgan do have a massive short position on silver and they get squeezed out? The argument for silver is a good one without these two scenarios

I have been accumulating 1966 rounds for a number of years now. Three coins are very very close to an ounce of silver, each coin in fact contains 80% silver.

I could have sworn I read they were 90 but you're right, 80% it is. That brings them a fair bit over spot(for what I paid anyway). Anyone who holds them seems to know what they are worth so I doubt I'll ever find them real cheap. Reason I bought was so that once the price takes off it's easier to sell a few coins than kilo or 5kg bars if ya need a bit of cash.

I was bored today and watched a few videos on silver manipulation on you tube. I have no idea if any of the info is credible but a bit of a laugh at the least: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gl47z2g2EvI

Mr Z · 21 September 2012

explod said:
I have been accumulating 1966 rounds for a number of years now. Three coins are very very close to an ounce of silver, each coin in fact contains 80% silver.

I believe it is just over @ ~ 1.025 oz, near as damn it really, 3/4 of a gram over. Don't short change yourself!

young-gun · 7 October 2012

Does anyone know where I can find silver charts for between 2006 to today in AUD? Just curious what happened to the price when our dollar hit 60c approx against the greenback.

Was this period due to our dollar crashing or was it the US dollar gaining strength in relation to the AUD? If it was our dollar crashing then silver(in AUD) would have increased substantially in that period wouldn't it?

if that were the case then the gains from holding gold and silver will be even greater as our dollar starts to fade off the back of the resources 'boom'.

Mr Z · 7 October 2012

http://netdania.com/Products/live-s...ates/real-time-forex-charts/ChartStation.aspx

burglar · 8 October 2012

Kitco is advertising Aussie "Koalas"

1 oz Silver Australian Koala
Product details
USD $ 38.36 ea.

I've not seen them before!

jimy · 8 October 2012

HIii....

8 Reasons Why Silver Is the Investment of the Decade....
http://www.shtfplan.com/forecasting/8-reasons-why-silver-is-the-investment-of-the-decade_03072011

Bron Suchecki · 12 October 2012

young-gun said:
Does anyone know where I can find silver charts for between 2006 to today in AUD? Just curious what happened to the price when our dollar hit 60c approx against the greenback.

Was this period due to our dollar crashing or was it the US dollar gaining strength in relation to the AUD? If it was our dollar crashing then silver(in AUD) would have increased substantially in that period wouldn't it?

Download free data on silver AUD prices since 1975 here http://www.perthmint.com.au/investment_invest_in_gold_precious_metal_prices.aspx

AUD metal prices can be significantly impacted by our exchange rate, with periods where USD price moves are muted by opposing changes in AUD/USD and other times USD price move are magnified by aussie FX rate dropping at the same time.

Mr Z · 12 October 2012

Bron Suchecki said:
Download free data on silver AUD prices since 1975 here http://www.perthmint.com.au/investment_invest_in_gold_precious_metal_prices.aspx

AUD metal prices can be significantly impacted by our exchange rate, with periods where USD price moves are muted by opposing changes in AUD/USD and other times USD price move are magnified by aussie FX rate dropping at the same time.

Bron,

I have used that data in the past, it is really dirty and inconsistent, I spent some decent time cleaning it up for use with a charting program but unfortunately I lost it all a few years ago. IMO it would be a nice gesture to your customer base if it where tidied up and presented in some of the popular charting formats.

That was years ago... maybe you have sorted it already, if so please excuse me as I am not about to attempt to import it all again to verify my comment is still valid

young-gun · 12 October 2012

Mr Z said:
Bron,

I have used that data in the past, it is really dirty and inconsistent, I spent some decent time cleaning it up for use with a charting program but unfortunately I lost it all a few years ago. IMO it would be a nice gesture to your customer base if it where tidied up and presented in some of the popular charting formats.

That was years ago... maybe you have sorted it already, if so please excuse me as I am not about to attempt to import it all again to verify my comment is still valid

It just comes up in an excel spread-sheet, you can get what you want, just harder to scroll throguh it all than a chart.

Maybe I am missing something obvious, or don't understand how it works properly, but if i recall correctly our dollar went from around 90c a US$ to about 65c (approx) at the height of the gfc from memory. Should this not have increased the cost of silver(in AUD) by that same amount as a percentage at the same period? or increase in AUD while decreasing in price in USD? bringing the difference between the price of silver in AUD to USD to be the same as the gap in currencies?

If that makes any sense?

Mr Z · 12 October 2012

young-gun said:
It just comes up in an excel spread-sheet, you can get what you want, just harder to scroll throguh it all than a chart.

Try and port it to something like Metastock and you will find out what I am talking about

Bron Suchecki · 12 October 2012

Not sure what you mean by dirty and inconsistent - it is just raw data in a csv format which is as universal a format we can offer and which should be readable by most programs. We are currently in the process of redoing our website and I'll be adding in some online charts for the data and if we can automate the file creation, then save into some other formats.

Our FX rate did crash in the GFC, but so did the USD silver price. Here are two data points with aprox high and low points for the aussie around that time:

Date	USD Silver	FX Rate	AUD Silver
16/07/08	19.15	0.9786	19.57
21/11/08	9.36	0.6180	15.16

Basically the FX drop was not enough to make up for the USD silver price drop. Because AUD silver price is derived via dividing, the maths of it mean the percentages do not work as you described. For example, in the table above the aussie drops 36.8% but lets assume that the USD silver stayed at $19.15. In that case the AUD silver price would have went up to (19.15 / 0.6180) = $30.99, which is an increase of 58.3%.

Mr Z · 12 October 2012

Bron Suchecki said:
Not sure what you mean by dirty and inconsistent

Exactly what I say, the format is (was) not the same throughout the data set and stuff is simply missing. From memory the date was all over the place, it makes it very hard to port to another format. Trust me is was a lot of work at the time --> you will only likely hit the issues if you actually try and port it. If you are not technical (I am very experienced) it was a nogo to munge the data into something more useful to a charting app.

Why Silver

explod

explod

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