Why is it so hard?

[freddy2]

Sounds like the whole 5%/95% ratios people have been throwing up are way ambitious...0.1%/99.9% according the Brett S's study.

ASX.G

And when you take out the traders who were trading with a mathematical disadvantage (IMO almost all traders are) but got "lucky" the figure is more like 1 in 10000.

 

[tech/a]

And when you take out the traders who were trading with a mathematical disadvantage (IMO almost all traders are) but got "lucky" the figure is more like 1 in 10000.

So here at ASF we have 14000 Members of which it is highly likely that only somewhere between 2 and 140 are consistently profitable.

 

[Trembling Hand]

So here at ASF we have 14000 Members of which it is highly likely that only somewhere between 2 and 140 are consistently profitable.

Ok who is the other one?

 

[nioka]

So here at ASF we have 14000 Members of which it is highly likely that only somewhere between 2 and 140 are consistently profitable.

You would have to take into account how many are ;

1. Just interested
2. Part time investors
3. Full time investors
4. Investors who only sometimes trade
5. Part time traders in a small time way.
6. Traders learning the ropes.
7. Full time traders. Split into 3 groups;

a. Successful
b. Breaking even but living on savings.
c. Gradually going broke.

For the record I class myself as a mixture of 2 and 4. Maybe that is another group.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Ok who is the other one?

Now I know you're just trying to stir me up :

 

[ShareIt]

Hi all

Over a period of time i have trying to gather as much info as i can to generate some income from the market.

At first it was buy some stocks they go up and sell etc well not much progress there as the market has gone done. On some occassions i did sell only to see the stock take off and miss nice profits. On the other hand i held on to stocks i should've in hindsight sold and of course they went down.

Then i looked at stocks with dividends well the dividends were not that great eg OXR and BPT so no joy there.

I started to look at options and just when i thought i had some progress with covered calls they appeared to be fairly low risk. Looked good for some monthly income but via this forum i was alerted to the risks. The volatility trap etc

Finally got to understand Calls and Puts etc but again lots of confusion and everyone telling me how risky it is if you get it wrong infinite losses etc

CFDs have been touted as very risky so have steered clear of these.

So as time goes by trying to absorb so much info i am getting more and more confused of which direction i should take to learn how to gain some income from the market.

Has anyone got any suggestions where my first base should be to try at least.

Cheers
SG

Sometimes doing it the hard way is the best way as you learn very fast from your mistakes and are never to make them again in the future.

Most people who do start out play it the safe path and then somewhere down the track it all goes wrong and they give up... I think the quicker you experience the bad side of trading, the more disciplined you set yourself to become successful. It's one thing to say "I will cut losses short, I will trade my plan, etc" but when your money is on the line, most beginners will never follow it, resulting is losses and then giving up.

I started in the deep end (options, due to the limited risk of buying calls and puts) which was not a good thing in the start... but having done some terrible mistakes and loosing hard earned cash, it has made me a much better trader and have been quite profitable since. Most of my calls are usually wrong these days, but being able to cut my losses quick and catch the big waves is what makes it all worth it.... good luck

 

[IFocus]

Ok who is the other one?

Crack me up TH

BTW I am today, not so sure about tomorrow......

 

[IFocus]

You would have to take into account how many are ;

1. Just interested
2. Part time investors
3. Full time investors
4. Investors who only sometimes trade
5. Part time traders in a small time way.
6. Traders learning the ropes.
7. Full time traders. Split into 3 groups;
a. Successful
b. Breaking even but living on savings.
c. Gradually going broke.
8. The only Old Dog left standing

For the record I class myself as a mixture of 2 and 4. Maybe that is another group.

Nioka I think you are number 8

 

[austek]

Agree with 'Share It'
I recall reading Dr Ehlder's book where he says the best way to learn is to have as many small trades as you can, to get the experience. But do not lose all your money in your first year.

Therefore reading up on risk mngmnt to minimise loss, and money mngmnt to restrict position size well within your own risk parameters, has gotta be a big help before placing trades.

Learning to trade by your self, your own way systematically with some degreee of structure, must have something going for it, because you read so often from some of the best traders in the world, who are proud to admit that that is how they started out.

 

[IFocus]

Why not try something like SPA3,

http://www.sharefinder.com.au/

Looking at the results ( http://www.sharefinder.com.au/deloitte.php ) , sounds alright, for a few grand (includes a charting package and system).

I would consider it if starting from scratch, and over 50K + capital, and have reasonable expectations on ROI.

I believe there may be a monthly subscription, although if trading sufficient capital, and the system works, this hopefully would not be an issue.

I am not an actual customer so do not know the service in detail, but heard some good reports.

I hope that if there is a monthly subscription, it is mainly paying for the data subscription for the package, and system developments (although if the system is robust you would hope that they are not too regular).

Anything less than 50K trading capital , I think you may struggle (with brokerage and having a sufficient size portfolio), if trading shares, and not using leverage (which I would avoid at this stage, or evenly completely - my bias).

"You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out." - Warren Buffett

Ah yes forgot about Garry Stone have never used the service but know some one that has and she has gone on to be is in the top 1% IMHO, good advice weird where were you in the late 90's when I started out?

BTW I rate Nick Radge the same or better for learning, (no ramp read on) every thing Nick does is transparent (keeps records) and I believe Garry Stone is the same. Its not important if its real trades or assumed entries and exits its the record to have to do your home work on that counts plus it shows market reality.

The records that some keep are profits only or the last great move they picked out of hundreds......

 

[IFocus]

I thought this may be appropriate. I met Brett last year and have a lot of respect for him...


What Makes an Expert? Three Surprising Research Conclusions
by Brett Steenbarger
traderfeed.blogspot.com

Nick I think his two books are a must read for anyone in the market 2nd one below would put most off as Brett talks about what it takes


http://books.google.com.au/books?id...arger&sig=1EdrqmQtGif38ACWN-UyK8a9LqU#PPP1,M1

http://books.google.com.au/books?id=GC5UAAAACAAJ&dq=inauthor:Brett+inauthor:N+inauthor:Steenbarger

 

[nioka]

Nioka I think you are number 8

Not the only one. I know they say it is hard to teach old dogs new tricks but I say if it aint broke don't fix it and it is working OK for me. But then, as I have said before, I'm not trying to be the richest man in the cemetary all I do is try and afford the way of life I desire without too much risk.
Can we have 8 as ".Part time investor who sometimes trade but prefers property as a better source of reliable income."

 

[IFocus]

Not the only one. I know they say it is hard to teach old dogs new tricks but I say if it aint broke don't fix it and it is working OK for me. But then, as I have said before, I'm not trying to be the richest man in the cemetary all I do is try and afford the way of life I desire without too much risk.
Can we have 8 as ".Part time investor who sometimes trade but prefers property as a better source of reliable income."

Oh god don't start talking property here LOL

 

[Trembling Hand]

Nick I think his two books are a must read for anyone in the market 2nd one below would put most off as Brett talks about what it takes

Yep huge fan of his second book. Probably the most helpful book I have ever read. and good news for Dr S fans from his latest blog post,

"I also had an excellent meeting with my editor at Wiley, and it looks as though we have a very early January, 2009 publication date for my new book. "

Only 300 odd more sleeps.

 

[austek]

Yep huge fan of his second book. Probably the most helpful book I have ever read. and good news for Dr S fans from his latest blog post,

"I also had an excellent meeting with my editor at Wiley, and it looks as though we have a very early January, 2009 publication date for my new book. "

Only 300 odd more sleeps.

TH would you mind giving me the name of his second book?

 

[Trembling Hand]

TH would you mind giving me the name of his second book?

Enhancing Trader Performance: Proven Strategies From the Cutting Edge of Trading Psychology (Wiley Trading) Brett N. Steenbarger​

What I like so much about this book is its not a how to trade book, but rather a how to learn how to trade.

 

[freddy2]

For the OP if you want to improve your understanding of investing I would start with reading introductory texts on:
1) Statistics/Probability
2) Micro-economics
3) Accounting
4) Finance
5) Books by or about Munger, Buffett, Thorp, Lynch

Stay well clear of
1) Technical analysis
2) Modern Portfolio theory

 

[Trembling Hand]

Stay well clear of
1) Technical analysis
2) Modern Portfolio theory

Yeah! no one has ever succeeded with tech/a

 

[freddy2]

Yeah! no one has ever succeed with tech/a

Pretty much true unless you mean in the sense of "No one ever succeeded with playing lotto". Of course some people will be successful through luck, but overall both technical analysis after transaction costs and lotto are losing propositions.

 

[prawn_86]

Pretty much true unless you mean in the sense of "No one ever succeeded with playing lotto". Of course some people will be successful through luck, but overall both technical analysis after transaction costs and lotto are losing propositions.

I think you will find this way off the mark Freddy.

However, there are plenty of TA versus FA threads, so as to not derail this one, if anyone wishes to take the arguement up further i suggest the do so in an appropriate thread.

thanks guys

Prawn