Who are you voting for?

While this poll number is very small, I find it interesting the Liberal Party is pulling away from Labor. Does this reflect the public sentiment? Surely my fellow ASF contibutors are an astute bunch, are they not?

Labor 43.79%

Liberal 50.39%

That suggests a return of the government, and while I find it hard to believe, it would seem the $4 something on offer for a Coalition win represents great value for mine. (For the betting Man/Woman that is)

A re-elected coalition government would change the law to pave the way for nuclear power stations, Prime Minister John Howard says.

Click to expand...

http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/PM-says-Nuclear-power-is-on-his-agenda/2007/11/20/1195321781982.html


Latest news will change some people votes in both directions i Imagine, but youd think it will lose more votes than gain ? why did he make this announcement now instead of wait ?

Vote Lib for Nukes in your Neighbourhood.

Vote Lab for solar panels on your rooftops.

arminius said:

and you are still voting for these people julia? after everything that you've seen you are encourageing them to do it again? condoning their actions?
all because you're afraid of what might happen?
bizarre.

Click to expand...

You know.... it's a lot of your attempts at emotionally blackmailing swinging voters on this forum that turned me off labor for so long.

moXJO said:

You know.... it's a lot of your attempts at emotionally blackmailing swinging voters on this forum that turned me off labor for so long.

Click to expand...

I've suppressed a similar response, moXJO, largely in the belief that in Arminius's case it has mostly been done in a sense of fun.
But anyway I think my own capacity to make decisions (although clearly wanting at the present time!) is sufficient to resist any attempts at said emotional blackmail! Do agree, though, that a clearly presented argument as to the validity of a vote for either side will always beat any sort of personally critical approach.

The state Labor Governments are receiving all the GST and more each year. 'Tis a pity they can't manage it better. Never hear the Labor Party talk about rolling back the GST anymore. 'Tis also a pity they did not stick to their agreement in abolishing a lot of their state tax's when given the GST. It would make it a lot easier on new home buyers.

Click to expand...

The numbers on revenue flow were out recently showing a clear decline in revenue from the Fed to the States as a percentage hence the States held onto old taxes as the Liberals play games on the big cost issues such as health and education.

A total disgrace for a federal government to be the problem rather than the solution and then throw in the farce of the single hospital take over in Tasmania proves they have no intention or plan to resolve issues other than to play games and spend over $400 mil telling me how wonderful they are at managing my taxes.

2020hindsight said:

did I hear $192mill spent by coalition in last 12 months ( tax payers money btw - not their own) ? - ( I knew the coalition / govt spent about $111 in the 12 months to March, but it seems that "necessary dissemination of government information" suddenly escalation in recent months - hence $190mill + for the last 12 months. That would be double the normal rate

Click to expand...

Remember, it's only the Liberal Party that can keep this advertising boom going.

Julia said:

I've suppressed a similar response, moXJO, largely in the belief that in Arminius's case it has mostly been done in a sense of fun.
But anyway I think my own capacity to make decisions (although clearly wanting at the present time!) is sufficient to resist any attempts at said emotional blackmail! Do agree, though, that a clearly presented argument as to the validity of a vote for either side will always beat any sort of personally critical approach.

Click to expand...

The reasons I have for voting labor (or exhausting my preferences to Labor), are that even though they're a long way from perfect, they have outperformed the coalition in every portfolio over the years IMO. These are just a few examples. I hope my reasons are sufficiently clearly presented LOL.

The Economy - it took a Labor gov't to 1)float the dollar and deregulate the money markets making Aust. competitive. 2)abolish centralised bargaining which had been in place since 1907. 3)curtail the last wages explosion that occured in 1981-3 under Howard 4)tie wage increases to productivity increases and 5)propose to the Reserve an inflation target of 2-3% which it adopted. Other developed countries have since followed suit. These are the big reforms that have placed Aust in the position it is in. Ironically many still believe that these occured under the coalition. Howard also conceded on the 7:30 report last night that the only reason home interest rates didn't rocket above 12% or so under his treasuryship was because they were CAPPED! and he hadn't floated the dollar. The coalition's reforms have been largely to introduce Work Choices and little else. New Zealand introduced these types of laws years ago with litle or no effect on productivity. Besides presiding over a massive global boom, I fail to see what large and innovative economic reforms the coalition have achieved.

Health - Recall that it was Whitlam that introduced universal Health Medicare), leaving the US as the only developed economy without it. We all know what happens if you're in the bottom 25% of the pop. in the US and get crook. Howard fought to dismantle Medicare for years and has not outlined any plan to improve the system now. I believe Rudd's proposal to Federalise Health is a good one. Time will tell how well he achieves this, but its a start.

The Environment - Again a no-brainer. Labor's record could be a lot better but is clearly ahead on this issue. Ratifying Kyoto is largely symbolic but is an obvious first step to show that we're serious. Setting carbon targets and so on is the inevitable path that the world is going in, so better to adapt now than do so in a more expensive panic later. Howard has publicly denied climate change until 10 mins ago and only in response to the political fallout. He is still not prepared to actually do anything.

Education - Again, whilst Labor's education revolution is a bit of an overstatement, they could hardly do worse. I can't recall the exact numbers, but Aust's education expenditure ,as a percent of GDP, has consistently and dramatically fallen over the last decade relative to other modern economies. This also has significant implications for the economy. Howard's only ideas were to stick a priest in every school, prescribe some warped view of Aust. history and pour money into the schools that least need it.

Defence - taking a country unnecessarily to war at huge expense and against all advice (except George W) is probably the most serious crime a government can commit. Does anyone seriously think that was a good idea or that we haven't increased the terrorist threat as result? The coalition also spent a squillion on a pile of crap planes, but then again Beazley bought a pile of crap submarines, so I guess that evens out.

Unfortunately Labor is unambiguously imperfect but relative to the current mob, its a pretty clear cut for mine. I wish my investment decisions were as simple!

skint said:

Education - Again, whilst Labor's education revolution is a bit of an overstatement, they could hardly do worse. I can't recall the exact numbers, but Aust's education expenditure ,as a percent of GDP, has consistently and dramatically fallen over the last decade relative to other modern economies. This also has significant implications for the economy. Howard's only ideas were to stick a priest in every school, prescribe some warped view of Aust. history and pour money into the schools that least need it.

Click to expand...

While we are on Howard's performance last night. There were a couple of absolute doozies.

HOWARD: You learn by experience. You have to go through things to actually understand it...

KERRY O'BRIEN: Or you can learn by a study of the past.

JOHN HOWARD: You can't learn by reading a book.

KERRY O'BRIEN: We can't learn from history without being a part of it?

Click to expand...

You can't learn from reading a book? WTF?

Sorry Nick, and everyone else here who votes Liberal and advises reading books, I just can't learn anything from you guys anymore...

And geez... It's a good thing I'm out murdering Jews on a grand scale isn't it? Christ, I'm sure as hell glad I haven't learned anything or understood any history from not actually being involved in it.

A number of weeks ago, my 80 something year old nan said Howard was senile. I think she was perhaps on the mark. Slip ups like this just weren't a part of his daily routine previously. But no wonder he hates the education system.

Maybe he is postulating the importance of being involved in history, because he knows he now is it.

chops_a_must said:

While we are on Howard's performance last night. There were a couple of absolute doozies.


You can't learn from reading a book? WTF?

Click to expand...

LOL that’s a statement you would expect from G Bush
Maybe Howard needs new glasses.

Hi Chops, I forgot about the "can't learn from books" line. It was a pearler! Howard's ability to duck and weave, which has been his trademark just wasn't there. Kerry O'Brien nailed him...again..and again..and again. He did all but stick a carrot up his date!

I will be voting Liberal. I don't agree with everything John Howard stands for but overall he's on the money.

Rudd has successfully made a mountain out of a mole hill in this election. The facts are that interest rates are still relatively low, average wages are increasing steadily, unemployment is at record lows and we've kept tidy budget surpluses for some time now. The economy is very strong so we're seeing upward pressure on inflation but that is to be expected under these conditions. As long as this is kept in check it won't be a problem.

Even in the midst of a severe drought and high oil prices average wage rises have still outstripped rises in average consumer prices and food prices. You might want to read the following article:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,22059550-601,00.html

According to Commsec chief economist Craig James average wages have risen by 25%, while average consumer prices have risen by 14 per cent and food prices have gone up by 18 per cent. So an average wage buys 50 per cent more bread, 56 per cent more rump steak, 60 per cent more eggs and, surprisingly, 78 per cent more petrol now than it did five years ago, according to his figures.

Click to expand...

Listen to Rudd and you'd be forgiven for thinking that half the population is starving to death but the fact is that working families are actually doing pretty well.

To me Rudd is a great big bundle of cliches. His rhetoric is incessant and at times patronising. At heart, Garrett is an emotionally driven environmental radical, the LAST PERSON we need making any sort of decisions on environmental matters. I would take Malcolm Turnbull any day and what a waste of talent it would be if he lost his seat.

I really hope the country comes to its senses on election day - coast to coast Labor is not a pretty thought and the thought of Bob Brown working closely with Kevin Rudd and Peter Garrett on environmental issues is even more frightening. .

WC

Gundini said:

While this poll number is very small, I find it interesting the Liberal Party is pulling away from Labor. Does this reflect the public sentiment? Surely my fellow ASF contibutors are an astute bunch, are they not?

Labor 43.79%

Liberal 50.39%

That suggests a return of the government, and while I find it hard to believe, it would seem the $4 something on offer for a Coalition win represents great value for mine. (For the betting Man/Woman that is)

Click to expand...

Unfortunately, you forgot to distribute the preferences of the "minor parties" in the ASF poll - you know - the ones that say "Other - with a Liberal or Labor preference"... and I'm pretty sure most all of the Green preferences would go to Labor too.

So that would make it about 50.56 Coalition to 49.44 Labor on a "2 party preferred" basis - a whole lot closer than what you may be thinking.




AJ

Woodchips said:

Even in the midst of a severe drought and high oil prices average wage rises have still outstripped average consumer prices and food prices. You might want to read the following article:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,22059550-601,00.html

Click to expand...

Take out executive salaries, and they haven't.

Woodchips said:

I will be voting Liberal. I don't agree with everything John Howard stands for but overall he's on the money.

Rudd has successfully made a mountain out of a mole hill in this election. The facts are that interest rates are still relatively low, average wages are increasing steadily, unemployment is at record lows and we've kept tidy budget surpluses for some time now. The economy is very strong so we're seeing upward pressure on inflation but that is to be expected under these conditions. As long as this is kept in check it won't be a problem.

Even in the midst of a severe drought and high oil prices average wage rises have still outstripped rises in average consumer prices and food prices. You might want to read the following article:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,22059550-601,00.html



Listen to Rudd and you'd be forgiven for thinking that half the population is starving to death but that fact is that working families are actually doing pretty well.

Click to expand...

Take out the HUGE impact the mining boom has had on our economy and it would not be looking so good.

Woodchips said:

I will be voting Liberal. I don't agree with everything John Howard stands for but overall he's on the money.

Rudd has successfully made a mountain out of a mole hill in this election. The facts are that interest rates are still relatively low, average wages are increasing steadily, unemployment is at record lows and we've kept tidy budget surpluses for some time now. The economy is very strong so we're seeing upward pressure on inflation but that is to be expected under these conditions. As long as this is kept in check it won't be a problem.


WC

Click to expand...

If you read my earlier post (3:49pm), I outlined the large economic reforms that have placed Aust in the competitive position it is in. They occured under Labor. Also, if you take out the miner's, AWA's have left people significantly worse off, especially women, retail and hospitality worker's etc. Wages in the latter groups (and obviously there are a great many) have fallen by $80-$100. Further, of course we are having huge surpluses. The mining component of the boom alone has added over $80b dollars, even before considering other sectors of the economy that has benefited from the GLOBAL boom. Your confusing genius with boom.

this is probably one thing i am most looking forward too....

I'll end secrecy: Rudd

Labor leader Kevin Rudd has pledged to end the culture of secrecy he claims has been a hallmark of the Howard government, describing it as a cancer eating away at the function of democracy.

Mr Rudd believes any decent government need not fear making mistakes every now and then, as long as it's willing to explain itself.

He highlighted the children overboard saga, the failed case against Mohamed Haneef and the suppression of documents outlining possible further industrial changes as some of the worst examples from the Howard years.

Mr Rudd said there was a culture of secrecy within the current government and it went to the very heart of everything that was wrong with it.

"I think there's been a bit of a cancer at work in recent years,'' he told the National Press Club today.

"I go back particularly to that disgraceful saga called 'kids overboard', there is a challenge for us all to make sure that we have proper processes of external accountability.''

Among the changes Labor is promising to make is to be more open with freedom of information requests by ending conclusive certificates and making ministerial staff - if they have a exercised executive power - accountable to parliamentary committees.

Mr Rudd committed that he or one of his ministers would brief the media after cabinet meetings if Labor won government.

He flagged the release of a code of ministerial conduct before election day.
Mr Rudd acknowledged it was easy to make promises from opposition - while it was harder to keep them once in government.

"I know that's very easy to say from opposition because you're not in government and then when the heat's on you, it all seems different,'' he said.

"But if you're running a decent government you shouldn't fear these things.

"I think the Australian public are mindful that when mistakes are made as long as you are upfront about it and tell people that things have been done wrongly that's ok.''

In terms of the way he would govern, the Labor leader indicated he preferred to be fully informed about an issue before making commitments that would be difficult to follow through.

"I have an inherent distaste for grandiose, rhetorical statements which don't have any substantive dimension to them,'' Mr Rudd said.

"I believe any plan is not worth the paper it's written on unless you are serious about the mechanics of its implementation and how to measure that. "To me that's really important.''

Click to expand...

http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-...nd-secrecy-rudd/2007/11/21/1195321837158.html

skint said:

If you read my earlier post (3:49pm), I outlined the large economic reforms that have placed Aust in the competitive position it is in. They occurred under Labor.

Click to expand...

They did, but I am talking about the current crop - I don't for one second deny the achievements of previous Labor governments with regard to economic reform.

skint said:

...if you take out the miner's, AWA's have left people significantly worse off, especially women, retail and hospitality worker's etc. Wages in the latter groups (and obviously there are a great many) have fallen by $80-$100.

Click to expand...

They're average wages and are deceptive when there's been compositional changes in employment especially in typically low wage industries. Full time employment has risen across the board since Workchoices was introduced and many of these new full-time employees in retail and hospitality were previously part-time low wage workers or unemployed low wage workers. They inevitably drag the average wages for such industries down.

Point is that average wages in most other industries have grown and real wages growth as measure by the WPI (which isn't affected by compositional changes) has continued to grow somewhere around 1% since Workchoices. So the divergence that you are referring to with respect to retail and hospitality is a result of compositional changes in employment only. Its almost certainly a statistical artifact.

As for women, I am yet to see the figures that suggest that they are worse off. When I looked up the figures recently, average female wages growth grew by 5.1% since Workchoices, compared to the 5 year average of 4.6% and the 20 year average of 4.2%.

skint said:

Further, of course we are having huge surpluses. The mining component of the boom alone has added over $80b dollars, even before considering other sectors of the economy that has benefited from the GLOBAL boom. Your confusing genius with boom.

Click to expand...

There's no denying it, a lot of it is about the mining boom. But given that everyone acknowledges the past and future economic benefits of this mining boom, doesn't it make sense to encourage mining investment so that we can ride the wave for everything that its worth? A highly regulated labour market is not conducing to mining investment! Neither are strikes.

But of course, you can always just manage Chinese investments in Latin American real estate right? There's a bit more crud from Mr Rudd.

Would I call John Howard a genius? Nah, not in a heart beat! But I still reckon he's the better man for the job :

WC

Woodchips said:

As for women, I am yet to see the figures that suggest that they are worse off. When I looked up the figures recently, average female wages growth grew by 5.1% since Workchoices, compared to the 5 year average of 4.6% and the 20 year average of 4.2%.

Click to expand...

There is a big difference between "since" and "because of". It is a fact that women on AWA's (on the whole) have seen their pay decrease whilst women working without AWA's, have had their pay increased.

Woodchips said:

They did, but I am talking about the current crop - I don't for one second deny the achievements of previous Labor governments with regard to economic reform.


They're average wages and are deceptive when there's been compositional changes in employment especially in typically low wage industries. Full time employment has risen across the board since Workchoices was introduced and many of these new full-time employees in retail and hospitality were previously part-time low wage workers or unemployed low wage workers. They inevitably drag the average wages for such industries down.

Point is that average wages in most other industries have grown and real wages growth as measure by the WPI (which isn't affected by compositional changes) has continued to grow somewhere around 1% since Workchoices. So the divergence that you are referring to with respect to retail and hospitality is a result of compositional changes in employment only. Its almost certainly a statistical artifact.

As for women, I am yet to see the figures that suggest that they are worse off. When I looked up the figures recently, average female wages growth grew by 5.1% since Workchoices, compared to the 5 year average of 4.6% and the 20 year average of 4.2%.

I
There's no denying it, a lot of it is about the mining boom. But given that everyone acknowledges the past and future economic benefits of this mining boom, doesn't it make sense to encourage mining investment so that we can ride the wave for everything that its worth? A highly regulated labour market is not conducing to mining investment! Neither are strikes.



But of course, you can always just manage Chinese investments in Latin American real estate right? There's a bit more crud from Mr Rudd.

Would I call John Howard a genius? Nah, not in a heart beat! But I still reckon he's the better man for the job :

WC

Click to expand...

Back then there were those saying the sky would fall under Labor and as you recognise, it was Labor that made the reforms. Nothing to date suggests things would be significantly different IMO.

I agree there is compositional change but that's not what I'm refering to. I should have been more specific. Those that are employed (of either gender) in jobs that are in higher demand have no problems and account for much of the pay rises. Lower paid workers have suffered when they've moved from awards or enterprise bargaining agreements. There is a mountain of evidence to indicate these groups have been hammered. A low paid worker on $700 per week one day, and $600 the day after is not compositional change. The wealth gap has been increasing in Aust. and elsewhere. Workchoices accelerates this gap with all the commensurate socioeconomic consequences.

You seem to be also suggesting that Labor would not want the minerals boom to continue. Of course, everyone wants the minerals boom to continue as long as possible. Its ludicrous to suggest that either party wouldn't. This notion that Labor would seek to adopt a "highly regulated labour market" is also ludicrous, given that Labour deregulated the labour market in the first place. Enterprise bargaining introduced the efficiencies necessary without moving to a dog eat dog world with no benefits to productivity. Workchoices is not about productivity. Its about ideology. You only have to look to the US to see the problems with an entrenched underclass that results from a Howardesque mentality.

Gundini said:

While this poll number is very small, I find it interesting the Liberal Party is pulling away from Labor. Does this reflect the public sentiment? Surely my fellow ASF contibutors are an astute bunch, are they not?

Labor 43.79%

Liberal 50.39%

That suggests a return of the government, and while I find it hard to believe, it would seem the $4 something on offer for a Coalition win represents great value for mine. (For the betting Man/Woman that is)

Click to expand...

More a reflection of the fact that the "capitalists" and the money men ( make that people, not men) who deal in shares, while they may not represent a true cross section of society are are highly represented on these forums. Rudd has out performed Howard in the media these last two days. Rudd will win, don't take the $4 unless it is for second place. Even if the Libs creep in they may not have Howard as it is highly likely he will lose his own seat so that means Costello.