Which way is up?

[Ants]

A Call for Advice from any of the more experienced traders.

Can someone with any experience give me their opinion on what is happening in the market at the moment. Or what they think is going to happen?

I have ideas but no way of knowing if they they are any where near right ANY opinions are appreciated

Thanks Ants.

 

[blueroo]

Hi Ant

I would think that if anyone knows what is going to happen to the market would have made their fortune by now and sitting on an island somewhere

 

[Bobby]

A Call for Advice from any of the more experienced traders.

Can someone with any experience give me their opinion on what is happening in the market at the moment. Or what they think is going to happen?

I have ideas but no way of knowing if they they are any where near right ANY opinions are appreciated

Thanks Ants.

Well Ants thats a good question Iv'e being watching all day & getting contradictory signals.

But I'm more positive then negative at the moment.

Bob.

 

[powerkoala]

This is the REAL market....
no one can predict where SP is going...
up one day
down next day
pity....

 

[Ants]

I was feeling more negative. I was going on the supposition that we needed a big correction because of the strong speculative run we've had. But thats only going on a few things I have read.
Basically I'm looking for pointers on whether to cut my losses and wait for the bulls to take charge again or ride it out. It must be said that my losses are still minimal though growing,lol.

 

[markrmau]

I'm afraid the ox is telling us it will be a bad night for metals.

 

[Smurf1976]

I'm afraid the ox is telling us it will be a bad night for metals.

ox?

 

[Kipp]

Antsy,
I think the best course of action is to go light (i.e. sell off) a fair bit of the portfolio until things look like they'll plateau a bit, in the past week we've had two days of 90 point losses....

And if the All Ord bounce back to 5300 next week...which is more frustrating, missing out on profits? Or realising losses?

Course having said that.. I've only sold off a quarter of my portfolio (though I feel Banks, Infrastructure stocks etc) can be hit as bad as mining in our current market climate.

But I'm just a newbie - the opinion of the old hands (bullmarket, YT Richo etc) is worth alot more.

 

[markrmau]

ox?

Oxiana Ltd OXR.

Looks like smart money was shorting Friday.

My delayed data (1135am NY) gives gold down 3.5% (gc06m) and copper down 6.5% (hg06n)



The only thing to save ASX on Monday would be if the US nukes Iran over the W/E. (good for oil and gold)

 

[Ants]

Dudes thanks for yr input I sold off my stake in JML. We'll see if that was a premature mistake. Im only new in this game. So I needed the space even if it meant losing 700. Sometimes money isnt every thing.
I hope it rises for all else involved.

 

[specman]

The Dow has hit 40 on the RSI down from a high of 80 so we are getting into oversold territory.It's currently up about 30 points as I type.BHP is down 2.5% on the FTSE so we can probably expect the same on Monday unless base metal prices recover.They are down around 5% from 24 hours ago.

I can't believe we can lose much more in the mining sector unless base metal prices collapse completely which is not likely due to strong fundamentals,especially zinc.Forecast PE's are not high and correct me if I'm wrong,but are not forecast earnings based on metal prices that are out of date.Based on current prices,forecast earnings would be enormous.Even if base metals dropped another 15% we would still be ahead of forecast.

 

[nizar]

I can't believe we can lose much more in the mining sector unless base metal prices collapse completely which is not likely due to strong fundamentals,especially zinc.Forecast PE's are not high and correct me if I'm wrong,but are not forecast earnings based on metal prices that are out of date.Based on current prices,forecast earnings would be enormous.Even if base metals dropped another 15% we would still be ahead of forecast.

Agree

Prices may have faltered slightly ie. stopped going vertical, but companies like OXR are still still EARNING big$$$$$$$$

 

[RichKid]

A Call for Advice from any of the more experienced traders.

Can someone with any experience give me their opinion on what is happening in the market at the moment. Or what they think is going to happen?

I have ideas but no way of knowing if they they are any where near right ANY opinions are appreciated

Thanks Ants.

Hi Ants,
See the existing threads on the XJO, XAO and commodities etc, I'd prefer not to duplicate it all here, different people have different explanations. Good luck with it all.

 

[ice]

No-one can really know.

I could spout all sorts of gibberish as to what I think the market will do over the next few days/weeks but it would be only worth what you're paying for it.

However one thing I lean on constantly is the old aphorism that "the market will do whatever will hurt the most traders", so if you can figure what that is you'll probably be fairly close.


ice

 

[ghotib]

A Call for Advice from any of the more experienced traders.

Can someone with any experience give me their opinion on what is happening in the market at the moment. Or what they think is going to happen?

I have ideas but no way of knowing if they they are any where near right ANY opinions are appreciated

Thanks Ants.

Well you did say ANY opinions but I should say that I'm not a trader, experienced or otherwise. I'm a wannabee value investor (i.e. following the thinking of people like Buffet and Graham), with an itch to try trading stocks if I ever start to think of $10,000 as play money.

So my 2 cents about "what is happening in the market" is WHY? The only time anyone trades "the market" is when they trade "the market" index - presumably in your case the All Ords. The rest of the time they're trading something else, and "the market" is just one part of the environment. Like the weather, it's occasionally an overwhelming part of the environment but mostly you can just pick a sweater or a tshirt and then not worry about it.

From the JML thread, it looks as though JML has good proven ore deposits in a stable country, good prospects of mining them and getting them to market profitably even if the price for its product falls some distance, and good prospects for generating a reasonable return on investment at up to about 60cents a share. If those things are true, it was a bargain at 46cents and it's a better bargain at 38.

The stock market and the company's share price have NOTHING to do with any of those things. So if you bought JML in the first place because you thought it was a good company and you were buying at a price where the company would earn a good return on your equity, then you could just say thanks and keep buying if the share price happens to fall.

OTOH, I think that if you're trading the stock, rather than the company, then you're aiming to make your money from movements in the share price, rather than from the business. In that case it's actually better not to think about the company at all. Just go with technical analysis of the stocks you're interested in and maybe whatever comparisons (competitors, sector, ???) make sense. Seems to me that MOST of the "fundamentals" information on forums is used to justify or confirm non-rational opinions about share price prospects (not including Young_Trader on JML in that, I add hastily). Same goes for predictions about "the market" - there's always something moving against the majority trend.

I think it would be easier to keep emotions under control if you ignore all that stuff and simply focus on technical indicators - not too many - for a limited universe of stocks or whatever. I also think the first task is figuring out what universe to focus on. And that part of the job is being willing to stop trading when my selected universe is behaving inappropriately. But I ain't trading yet and experience might prove me completely wrong.

Getting clear about what's going on in our own heads is a really slow part of this game I find. Hope all this ramble is some help to you.

Good luck,

Ghoti