Ants said:
A Call for Advice from any of the more experienced traders.
Can someone with any experience give me their opinion
on what is happening in the market
at the moment. Or what they think is going to happen?
I have ideas but no way of knowing if they they are any where near right
ANY opinions are appreciated
Thanks Ants.
Well you did say ANY opinions
but I should say that I'm not a trader, experienced or otherwise. I'm a wannabee value investor (i.e. following the thinking of people like Buffet and Graham), with an itch to try trading stocks if I ever start to think of $10,000 as play money.
So my 2 cents about "what is happening in the market" is WHY? The only time anyone trades "the market" is when they trade "the market" index - presumably in your case the All Ords. The rest of the time they're trading something else, and "the market" is just one part of the environment. Like the weather, it's occasionally an overwhelming part of the environment but mostly you can just pick a sweater or a tshirt and then not worry about it.
From the JML thread, it looks as though JML has good proven ore deposits in a stable country, good prospects of mining them and getting them to market profitably even if the price for its product falls some distance, and good prospects for generating a reasonable return on investment at up to about 60cents a share. If those things are true, it was a bargain at 46cents and it's a better bargain at 38.
The stock market and the company's share price have NOTHING to do with any of those things. So if you bought JML in the first place because you thought it was a good company and you were buying at a price where the company would earn a good return on your equity, then you could just say thanks and keep buying if the share price happens to fall.
OTOH, I think that if you're trading the stock, rather than the company, then you're aiming to make your money from movements in the share price, rather than from the business. In that case it's actually better not to think about the company at all. Just go with technical analysis of the stocks you're interested in and maybe whatever comparisons (competitors, sector, ???) make sense. Seems to me that MOST of the "fundamentals" information on forums is used to justify or confirm non-rational opinions about share price prospects (not including Young_Trader on JML in that, I add hastily). Same goes for predictions about "the market" - there's always something moving against the majority trend.
I think it would be easier to keep emotions under control if you ignore all that stuff and simply focus on technical indicators - not too many - for a limited universe of stocks or whatever. I also think the first task is figuring out what universe to focus on. And that part of the job is being willing to stop trading when my selected universe is behaving inappropriately. But I ain't trading yet and experience might prove me completely wrong.
Getting clear about what's going on in our own heads is a really slow part of this game I find. Hope all this ramble is some help to you.
Good luck,
Ghoti