Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis?

[mit]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I'd dispute that - often in sideways or bear markets fundamental investing comes to the fore. Just because the market went nowhere, doesn't mean individual stocks went nowhere. Also an investment can do very well without the price of the stock rising.

Realist said he has a portfolio of around 20 stocks. With that many stocks it is difficult to outperform the market. If your idea of value was "screamingly cheap" you could make money as you would end up buying in those dips and selling at the peaks, but I would say there has been nothing "screamingly cheap" for a couple of years and those kinds of investors have probably been in cash since 2005.

MIT

 

[tech/a]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Think how much even a fundamental investor would make who timed his buys and sells using a simple index filter.

Quality response.

share price does not go up in value at all!!!

Terrible response.
A 7% move down and your snaffelled.

Investing for Dividends---Unless you're on a *Free* trade that too is a Phurphy.

Realist I'm sure will explain a *Free* trade for us.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Realist said he has a portfolio of around 20 stocks. With that many stocks it is difficult to outperform the market. If your idea of value was "screamingly cheap" you could make money as you would end up buying in those dips and selling at the peaks, but I would say there has been nothing "screamingly cheap" for a couple of years and those kinds of investors have probably been in cash since 2005.

MIT

I do not try and beat the market. I am happy to match it

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

A 7% move down and your snaffelled.

Investing for Dividends---Unless you're on a *Free* trade that too is a Phurphy.

Realist I'm sure will explain a *Free* trade for us.

I invest for dividends, absolutely!!! and proud of it!!

A free trade is a trade that does not cost you anything..

In the 1970's I'd have stocked up in the dip in 1975. I'd have been well ahead that decade.

 

[mit]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

In the 1970's I'd have stocked up in the dip in 1975. I'd have been well ahead that decade.

Not by what you have said about your investing style. If you aren't in cash now,
I can't see why you would be fully invested at the peak of the market and still fully invested at the bottom of the market (probably worse as market precedes the economy by 6 months you would get buy/sell signals at the worst possible times). What would you use to buy the extra shares?

MIT

 

[tech/a]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

A free trade is a trade that does not cost you anything..

Brilliant!!!!

So how does anyone achieve that?

You know why most people trade fundamentally?
Its because they wont spend the time and effort required to learn how to apply analysis of charts to their trading/investing.
Then they and MOST fundamental traders stop far short buy trading without a BUSINESS plan--which has been discussed at length---our Fundamental guru appears to have no interest in anything other than the Analysis itself.

Common.

Elliot Pundits picked months before the top 5300 pretty impressive.
At the same time they picked the end of the correction to be 4800
Hell thats bloody impressive.

Lucky guess??

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Not by what you have said about your investing style. If you aren't in cash now,
I can't see why you would be fully invested at the peak of the market and still fully invested at the bottom of the market (probably worse as market precedes the economy by 6 months you would get buy/sell signals at the worst possible times). What would you use to buy the extra shares?

MIT

No way would I ever have 100% of my money in the market ever.

75% at most, 25% as a minimum. Cause you never know.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

You know why most people trade fundamentally?
Its because they wont spend the time and effort required to learn how to apply analysis of charts to their trading/investing.
[/B]

Bollocks...

Most people do not trade fundamentally.

And secondly those that do get excellent results.

Finally. Most traders lose money.

 

[mit]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

No way would I ever have 100% of my money in the market ever.

75% at most, 25% as a minimum. Cause you never know.

So you have 25% of your money doing nothing all of the time? That doesn't make sense.

MIT

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

So you have 25% of your money doing nothing all of the time? That doesn't make sense.

MIT

Yep, it is in a CBA 5.4% internet banking account.

To me it makes sense now, to you it will make sense when the market crashes next.

No margin loans either!!

 

[mit]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Bollocks...

Most people do not trade fundamentally.

And secondly those that do get excellent results.

Finally. Most traders lose money.

ooh I can do this ...

Most people do not trade technically

And secondly those that do get excellent results.

Finally. Most fundamental investors lose money.

 

[mit]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Yep, it is in a CBA 5.4% internet banking account.

So why count it? I have more money in cash and property too but I only include this money allocated to shares.

To me it makes sense now, to you it will make sense when the market crashes next.

No margin loans either!!

No, Ill be in cash well before it get serious and keep most of my capital until buy signals come again. You'll have your 75% cash reduced to half, without the benefit of using your spare 25% cash to make money during the proceeding bull market. People who use T/A will get definite buy signals when it is safe to buy back. How will you know you are at the bottom? You might buy your bargains and the market falls another 25%.

Even with a Margin Loan you can be out of the market without too much damage with the advantage of maximizing returns during the bull run.

MIT

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

So why count it?

You asked "What would you use to buy the extra shares?"

I just told you cause I have cash - I always have money to buy shares.

How will you know you are at the bottom? You might buy your bargains and the market falls another 25%

If I buy bargains and the market (and my bargains) fall another 25% I would buy more!!

ooh I can do this ...

Most people do not trade technically

And secondly those that do get excellent results.

Finally. Most fundamental investors lose money.

Ridiculous. Traders (Darryl Guppy, Leon from Tasmania etc.) all admit in their books most traders lose!

Explain how someone can buy 20 widely diversified "bargain" shares, in well known companies that make excellent profits and have done so for the past 10 years, pay good dividends, hold them for 30 years, reinvest dividends, buy more when they become very cheap during dips, and sell if they become far too overvalued or start making losses? Explain how they can lose??

It aint possible!! It just aint possible to lose doing that. Even if you tried to you couldn't.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

By Realist:

Ridiculous. Traders (Darryl Guppy, Leon from Tasmania etc.) all admit in their books most traders lose!

and he`s found the guppy code, and the holy grail

 

[BSD]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Elliot Pundits picked months before the top 5300 pretty impressive.
At the same time they picked the end of the correction to be 4800
Hell thats bloody impressive.

Lucky guess??

I certainly dont want to be in the same camp as Realist, we have very divergent views.

But my answer to 'lucky guess' is YES

I had some 5350 June Puts also bought at the money and closed out a couple of weeks later at 4900.

Personally, I think EW analysis is some of the most laughable quack stuff going.

I put the short on because I had seen the banks (40% of the index) run 15% in a couple of weeks and we had a few days where on a strong lead from the states the market was up 50+ at lunch and down or flat at the close.

It is complete luck though and anybody who sold their entire portfolio and went short in such situations would be a broke person after a while.

The last two shorts on the XJO blew up as the market pushed higher.

I state my case again, one trade or one year or one manager over 5 years does not make a proven record.

Anyone who has the bulk of their wealth in one strategy/country/asset class/strategy/direction is a gambler.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Personally, I think EW analysis is some of the most laughable quack stuff going.

I wouldn't be quite so harsh. EW used deterministically can certainly smack of quackery. But on the other hand it does provide a useful "map" of the market...particularly in trend corrections. ABC patterns are usually quite clear.

Used as a management tool to define risk/reward and all those trader type things, is quite useful. (note: I'm not an EW purist by any stretch)

I state my case again, one trade or one year or one manager over 5 years does not make a proven record.

Anyone who has the bulk of their wealth in one strategy/country/asset class/strategy/direction is a gambler.

Don't necessarily agree they are gamblers, but they are certainly leaving there fate up to the market to decide.

Cheers

 

[mit]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

You asked "What would you use to buy the extra shares?"

I just told you cause I have cash - I always have money to buy shares.

So you are sometimes 100% invested. So you could be 100% invested at the left hand side as I originally said

If I buy bargains and the market (and my bargains) fall another 25% I would buy more!!

with what. You have already spent your 25% earlier

Ridiculous. Traders (Darryl Guppy, Leon from Tasmania etc.) all admit in their books most traders lose!

But the original study was based on reports from brokers so there was no differentiation between investors or traders. Darryl is talking to potential traders so he uses the word trader.

Explain how someone can buy 20 widely diversified "bargain" shares, in well known companies that make excellent profits and have done so for the past 10 years, pay good dividends, hold them for 30 years, reinvest dividends, buy more when they become very cheap during dips, and sell if they become far too overvalued or start making losses? Explain how they can lose??

It aint possible!! It just aint possible to lose doing that. Even if you tried to you couldn't.

1. Past earnings is a poor predictor of future earnings. *
2. The reason that a share is cheap could be because of something you don't know about.
3. It may take years before the market recognises that you were right all the time about the company .

Quote your friend Graham before his death in 1976 ....

"I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when Graham and Dodd was first published but the situation has changed ... [Today] I doubt whether such extensive efforts will generate sufficient superior selections to justify their cost"
from pg 198 A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Malkiel.

* From chapter 8 in the same book above, actual quantitative studies were done on most fundamental measures and the result found to be no more than random.

So whatever might seem to you to be sensible and logical, the facts don't line up with what you are saying.

On the other hand Malkiel very grudgingly admits that momentum is real.


MIT

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Originally Posted by tech/a
Elliot Pundits picked months before the top 5300 pretty impressive.
At the same time they picked the end of the correction to be 4800
Hell thats bloody impressive.

Lucky guess??

Dunno.

But please tell me the next high or low so I can judge myself.

So I can see that you have foresight, not just 20/20 hindsight, everyone has that.

I'm not interested in people predicting the past, I can do that myself.


Tell me the next high or low?

 

[mit]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Dunno.

But please tell me the next high or low so I can judge myself.

So I can see that you have foresight, not just 20/20 hindsight, everyone has that.

I'm not interested in people predicting the past, I can do that myself.


Tell me the next high or low?

*um* Actually they did make the calls in advance.

MIT

 

[wayneL]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Dunno.

But please tell me the next high or low so I can judge myself.

So I can see that you have foresight, not just 20/20 hindsight, everyone has that.

I'm not interested in people predicting the past, I can do that myself.


Tell me the next high or low?

Radge called it WELL BEFORE the high

Cheers