Where is the bottom?

[ta2693]

That is the bottom.
5700. My reasons
1 smart money are in, according to trading behavior in Dow and ASX's last hour trading.
2 historically speaking, 20% drop is the most in ASX.
3 equity is still cheap. low P/E ratio.
4 sub prime mortgage is not a real issue in Australia
5 Sub prime mortgage problem in US became clear 1week is long enough for market to absorb this information.


We are going to have a good Friday this week and recover from here. if it is down so much like yesterday, I will add 10% of my holding in value shares.

 

[Sprinter79]

Yeah, nice one. Does it have any numbers on it?

Yeah, it says something like 85-90 :

 

[Buffettology]

Probably 5400, 5500 will act as some kind of phsycological resistance point! Might go slightly below 5500 and then the big money will come in for the bargains!

 

[Flying Fish]

Probably 5400, 5500 will act as some kind of phsycological resistance point! Might go slightly below 5500 and then the big money will come in for the bargains!

lol what bargains? What was it two or three years ago? Do you honestly believe the market just keeps going up and up? I can remember when the asx was around 3000 and that was not all that long ago.
You thought the twin towers was a collapse, just watch the house of cards crumble.

 

[prawn_86]

lol what bargains? What was it two or three years ago? Do you honestly believe the market just keeps going up and up?

look at all the historical data and since any western market has been created it has continued to move up over the long term.

 

[numbercruncher]

4500 - next month

 

[Flying Fish]

look at all the historical data and since any western market has been created it has continued to move up over the long term.

Of course over decades, not months or years,

 

[springhill]

4500 - next month

I sincerely hope ur wrong numbercruncher but some backup for the 4500 would be great instead of just posting a number on the screen. Cheers

 

[Smurf1976]

look at all the historical data and since any western market has been created it has continued to move up over the long term.

Long term can, however, be very long.

Look at the historic periods where financial assets, particularly stocks and also real estate, have remained well below peak values in terms of their purchasing power. There's no guarantee that won't happen again.

Personally however I'm expecting major world stock markets to be very much higher in nominal terms in 3 years time than they are now. I'm not at all confident that the index will produce a positive return in real terms however. The basis of my expectations comes back to central banks and their likely response to the current situation which is, of course, more inflation.

 

[Flying Fish]

I sincerely hope ur wrong numbercruncher but some backup for the 4500 would be great instead of just posting a number on the screen. Cheers

What plausible reason is there for the ASX to remain at this current leveL? Any educated opinions please?

 

[wintermute]

Whilst I think that the speculative end of the market has been grossly overheated, and rediculous prices have been paid for some stocks, I don't think that these are representitive of the market as a whole.

As far as I am aware, the market currently is at historically low p/e levels, the economy is in pretty good shape (mainly due to the mining boom) and most importantly, a correction of this magnitude will allay a lot of peoples concerns that the market was getting overheated.

I've been saying for a while That I reckon we are going to have a crash, but I don't believe this is the start of it. Though we have seen the some warning signs of a bubble in the spec end of the market, we haven't yet seen it spread to the market in general, or an exhaustion peak.

My tip is that this is the last correction we get before the market goes into a euphoric buying frenzie, culminating in an 87 style crash. But we need to see the XAO go exponential before that happens IMO.

That's my worth anyway

Tony.

 

[Julia]

Either way guys,
No matter how tough this is at the moment what a fantastic learning experience this is for everyone. Who ever has not taken part in any of the other crashes this is an opportunity to really re evaluate trading styles and trading systems, whether you’re a fundamentalist or a technical trader/investor.
The experience is priceless.

SGB

This is a bit like telling someone who has been raped that the experience is character building!

 

[insider]

This is a bit like telling someone who has been raped that the experience is character building!

nothing like it...

 

[insider]

People don't appreciate what they have until it's gone... To me the 4 year Bull run is over and gone (side ways is not a bull run either) and people miss it... You only miss something if you love it...

 

[SGB]

This is a bit like telling someone who has been raped that the experience is character building!

Hello Julia

I haven't been rapped so I could not tell you how this could build up my character, but i have lost money in a trade before so I now know not to walk down that dark alley again.

Think about it

Regards
SGB

 

[Julia]

SGB and Insider

You are both missing my point entirely. Can't be bothered trying to explain.

 

[chops_a_must]

This is a bit like telling someone who has been raped that the experience is character building!

Personalising what the markets do is not healthy. In fact, it is exactly the opposite of what one should do...