When do you expect the next Correction?

[CanOz]

Hey guys... how often do corrections occur? When was the last correction period? How long it last? I'm confused whether to sell or hold...

This calls for a chart....DYO analysis.

 

[theasxgorilla]

asxgorilla you are talking about the bull run since october?

Since March '03.

I have corrections in Oct/Nov 03, March/May 05, Sept/Oct 05 and May/Jun 06.

 

[surfingman]

Since March '03.

I have corrections in Oct/Nov 03, March/May 05, Sept/Oct 05 and May/Jun 06.

Okay thanks, that puts things into a better perspective spreading out over a 5 year period on the charts.

 

[barnz2k]

We were speaking of a correction that started in China and went around the globe....

Cheers,

Thanks canuck!

I hope I didnt jump the gun on buying stock yesterday then after that 5-6% drop. Even if it continues down slower that should be the biggest drop for now?

But as this correction was kind of started by nothing
SMH - Not so great fall of china

Wouldnt this be different to previous corrections?

 

[CanOz]

Thanks canuck!

I hope I didnt jump the gun on buying stock yesterday then after that 5-6% drop. Even if it continues down slower that should be the biggest drop for now?

But as this correction was kind of started by nothing
SMH - Not so great fall of china

Wouldnt this be different to previous corrections?

Personally i think this will be different in that it may be a significant move down. If you go over to the XAO thread you'll see some charts there. I agree that we should see a decline to 5400 (we were at 6000 a week ago) over the next few weeks. I have not seen any valid technical argument to the contrary. As a matter of fact i have not even heard a decent fundemental reason why this may not occur.

The most experienced traders and investors on this site seem to agree that a decline is on the cards.

I am in CASH and have been so since Tuesday afternoon at 15:45 or there abouts. I've been trading part time for about 9 months and i will stand aside and learn as much as possible while the market corrects.

Best of luck,

 

[hitmanlam]

Personally i think this will be different in that it may be a significant move down. If you go over to the XAO thread you'll see some charts there. I agree that we should see a decline to 5400 (we were at 6000 a week ago) over the next few weeks. I have not seen any valid technical argument to the contrary. As a matter of fact i have not even heard a decent fundemental reason why this may not occur.

The most experienced traders and investors on this site seem to agree that a decline is on the cards.

I am in CASH and have been so since Tuesday afternoon at 15:45 or there abouts. I've been trading part time for about 9 months and i will stand aside and learn as much as possible while the market corrects.

Best of luck,

Hey canaus

I totally agree with you. I'm not totally cashed up but I have sold more than half of my holdings. Taken abit of profit. So right now, 75% is in cash and reducing my risk. The next 2 weeks will be very volatile. The way i see it is I can miss out on a little profit. However, if a full correction occurs, I will be much worst off. So for me, the risk outweights the gains. And trust me, I am not a risk averse person at all! The last several months, I have only been in two types of stocks, U's & nickel.

If the market doesn't correct, I won't regret it. I'm young and I've got another 40-50 years of trading shares to go!!! There will always be another day to make a profit.

 

[insider]

Do you guys think that maybe the reason why the correction was sharp when it started was also to do with a weakening US dollar as well as stop losses being triggered?

 

[theasxgorilla]

Do you guys think that maybe the reason why the correction was sharp when it started was also to do with a weakening US dollar as well as stop losses being triggered?

I can't comment beyond the XAO and the S&P500, I think any market participant with a chart or a calculator could see how unsustainable the gains of the last half a year have been. And almost all negative news has been ignored while share prices have marched on, particularly in the US...they say this is characteristic of a bull market.

But as a professional (not me, them!), who is going to explain to the boss that they stood aside while the competition carried on and made money for their customers? I think everyone was keeping a very close eye on each other for signs that anybody was running for the exits. Shanghai was an excuse for a blowoff in several markets that were on an unsustainable upward trajectory.

The bears think that the market is falling so hard, and will now go on and continue to fall further so as to catch-up with all the previously ignored negative news. If the US housing market suffers (which it is reported to be) then China suffers and India suffers and world commodity markets then suffer, which means Australia suffers, which means we should all go and find another hobby, or learn about those things called 'put options' and 'the short side' or something.

 

[champ2003]

Hey canaus

I totally agree with you. I'm not totally cashed up but I have sold more than half of my holdings. Taken abit of profit. So right now, 75% is in cash and reducing my risk. The next 2 weeks will be very volatile. The way i see it is I can miss out on a little profit. However, if a full correction occurs, I will be much worst off. So for me, the risk outweights the gains. And trust me, I am not a risk averse person at all! The last several months, I have only been in two types of stocks, U's & nickel.

If the market doesn't correct, I won't regret it. I'm young and I've got another 40-50 years of trading shares to go!!! There will always be another day to make a profit.

Hey hitmaniam,

What are you classing as a full correction? 20%?

 

[hitmanlam]

Hey hitmaniam,

What are you classing as a full correction? 20%?

I dunno. I'd be hard to pick the bottom IF it occurs. But it seems like alot of ppl are thinking that the index might drop to around 5400 - 5600.mark? Not a huge correction, but just a nice healthy one. My guess would be around 5500. And btw, it is a guess....

 

[stoxclimber]

The next 2 weeks will be very volatile.

imo volatility in global equity markets is dropping off and imo this is the end of the correction (putting myself out there).

edit: we may see a gradual slide down of the XJO but im not anticipating any sharp falls

 

[stoxclimber]

well, so much for that prediction

 

[Kimosabi]

Luckily, every 2% fall in the market isn't as bad as the previous 2% fall...

 

[>Apocalypto<]

*

When do you expect the next Correction?

Right now as were reading ha ha :jump:

*can't belive no one else made this call!*

 

[>Apocalypto<]

This calls for a chart....DYO analysis.

jeez the S&P recoved very quickly after the may sell off wonder if it could repeat it self this time around??

 

[IFocus]

XJO Monthly chart more room for further correction, i think lots more, price will meet up with the blue line 20ma sooner or later


Focus

 

[krisbarry]

I am ready for that correction, hoping for at least 10%. Have switched to cash in the meantime

Bring on May I say

 

[nizar]

Bring on May I say

How very selfish of you i say

 

[james99]

I wonder whether a correction might still be a few months away. Despite all the concerns re US economy, subprime mtges, inflation etc, the US companies are currently announcing very strong profits / reduced losses (ie Ford, whose loss reduced from over 1 billion to under 300 million); there is no immediate risk to geostability (I think that will be created when Prince Harry lands in Iraq and that will be a time to be very wary of the markets) and the UK is becoming increasingly alert to the value of commidities and Australian commodity companies.

 

[resourceboom]

I reckon we'll hit 7000 this year, with maybe one more small correction along the way!!