Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

What's your favourite combo of indicators?

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How someone determines signal confirmation is up to the individual and should be written into their plan
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Well thats exactly what I'm attempting to do determine YOUR signal.

So what your saying is that in the end your signal is discretionary.
It cant be quantified.--it changes--it may or may not be confirmed by your oscillator selection.

What you have described is as most traders take positions.
They have no idea of success rates simply a theory.
What you describe is to me a very dangerous way to place your money at risk. Thats exactly what your doing and you have no hope of quantifying it (the risk).

Now while I expect the hashed reply of 'If it doesnt suit your trading then good luck in your endeavors',my intentions was and always is to demonstrate what are sound trading practices, and the flaws in some theories presented here.
Demonstration gets the point across far better than pure statement.

Discretionary trading at best is Maverick style.
There is much talk about plans and I often see plans that are like jelly ---constantly changing.


Sound plans have statistics on entry exit,stops and position size variables so that when trading you KNOW wether what you are doing is within your results---reslts that determine profitability if you trade a particular plan.

A fluid plan without results to reference is nothing but theory---could be ----should be---maybe ----ought to be.

Anyway if it floats your boat and your happy with your results so be it.
If anyones un happy with their results and would like the discussion continued,Im happy to do so.

If I'm talking to myself and Bulldust then end of discussion.
 
Hi tech/a

For some reason your posts sound like I should be determining entries/exits and any other strategies whilst thinking like a trader.

I would have thought that my signature below each post and posts I have made on this site make it very clear that I am not a trader at all and that I am retired and invest with my #1 priority being income nowadays and not capital gains (although obviously any capital gains are welcomed if they occur:) )

Therefore my objectives and strategies are very much different to the vast majority in here who I suspect mostly see themselves as traders with cap gains as #1 priority and income as a second concern if at all.

My earlier posts in this thread made it very clear that what I was doing was simply describing with charts the maths behind the stochastic and MACD/MACD-H indicators and how I interpret buy/sell signals on them. I also said that indicators are not my main criteria for determining entry points and I go on price action first as I described broadly in earlier posts. I can't make that any clearer than I already have :) You will also see in other posts of mine that even before I look at charts I put a company through my fundamentals/valuation spreadsheet to see whether the chart is even worth looking at for me personally according to my objectives.

So if anything I have posted earlier in this thread or elsewhere is not applicable to your style of trading then that is fine - I don't have a problem with that at all. :) You are a trader and I am a retired investor with income as my #1 priority and so it's very likely we'll differ on various topics.

cheers

bullmarket :)
 
I am very simplistic in my combo of indicatiors. Coloured pricebars and patterns are my thing. I might throw some secondary indicatiors in for effect but thats about it.

What really makes the difference to my bottom line is how quickly and consistently I can recognise and respond to a threat to my position.

Cheers
Happytrader.
 
tech/a

Discretionary trading at best is Maverick style.
There is much talk about plans and I often see plans that are like jelly ---constantly changing.


Sound plans have statistics on entry exit,stops and position size variables so that when trading you KNOW wether what you are doing is within your results---reslts that determine profitability if you trade a particular plan.
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I have a feeling we are going to see its in the numbers at any point.
Something along the lines of;

(1)Average Winning trade.
(2)Average losing Trade.
(3)Maximum consectuive losses.
(4)Average no trades/ (whatever----your timeframe).
(5)Average days/hrs in a winning trade.
(6)Average Days/hrs in a losing trade.
(7)Average positive risk reward ratio
(8)Max % drawdown (relative drawdown as against peak to valley).
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(1) Stops keep you in the game.
(2) The closer the stops to your entry the more often youll be whipsawed.
(3) The further your stop is from your entry the more youll need to make on each trade.
(4) Testing (Mine do your own if you feel it necessary) shows that less than 20% of trades recover to profit from a greater than 8% decline from buy price.
(5) Approx 80% decline further than 8%.
(6) You should keep a trade report sheet on every trade so you can calculate.(After minimum of 50 trades.)

(A) Average width of stop.
(B) Average run of consecutive losers and winners (More on this later)
(C) Average trade win.

(7) If shorter term trading youll need tighter stops and a higher % of winners as your win will be only 1.5-3x your risk (Stop)
(8) If longer term trading you will have the luxury of wider stops,less winners but you must let your profits run.
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And of course, my all time favorite, the Expectancy calculation
Where, (1+($profit/$loss)*(#wins/#losses) -1)

If you feel up to the discussion, I'll let you know why I think it carries fatal flaws within its construct.

jog on
d998
 
Well actually I am both.Investor/trader.

I've had this discussion before about holding a portfolio for income only.

To just sit and take dividends without watching the price action of any stock in a portfolio may well give you a return at a (in some cases) massive cost to your portfolio capital albeit un realised until sale.

If your solely an investor reaping income why then do you comment on fields that you arent actively involved in?
Then when questioned run off with your disclaimer?

Happy thats only one part of the equation obviously the other part is your ability to hold those winners well past the accumulated small losses you accept when things turn pear shaped.

Duc I always love your discussions and we have had a few.
There must be a thread which you and I and others have been along this path on Reef.
Instead of re hashing it just provide the link.

I'll use one of bulldusts lines and say that this is what I have found to be most profitable and that which I currently use---well documented as you know.
Where we will always be at logger heads is my inclusion of open profits and your exclusion in your/my final results.

You also have your trading documented for explaination of your methodology---one of the few with the guts to do so.
 
hi tech/a :)

tech/a said:
Well actually I am both.Investor/trader.

I've had this discussion before about holding a portfolio for income only.

To just sit and take dividends without watching the price action of any stock in a portfolio may well give you a return at a (in some cases) massive cost to your portfolio capital albeit un realised until sale.

If your solely an investor reaping income why then do you comment on fields that you arent actively involved in?
Then when questioned run off with your disclaimer?

Happy thats only one part of the equation obviously the other part is your ability to hold those winners well past the accumulated small losses you accept when things turn pear shaped.
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no problem......I think you forget that I have consistantly suggested using stop losses to keep losses at a minimum and to protect profits for both traders and investors like myself :)

But if you want to believe my investment strategy is incurring large realised or unrealised losses then that is fine by me.....I posted once before that where people in a forum like this think I am on a scale ranging from bankrupt to Bill Gates is of no interest let alone consequence to me at all... :D

Re your question about my or anyone else commenting on something they are not active in, to me is showing your frustration....after all, I'm not involved (directly at least) in politics, sport and a host of other areas but I like everyone else is 100% entitled to comment on them if they wish.....the same applies to trading or whatever in shares.....

I could be wrong, (but I doubt it) ,your posts sound to me at least that you get very easily worked up and frustrated when someone posts something that although suits and works for them you don't necessarily agree with. Why not try and relax a bit and not take things so seriously ;)

In the mean time I will continue to post what I like when I like about any subject I like with no consideration at all for what you think of my posts..

Have a relaxing and pleasant evening :)

bullmarket
 
But if you want to believe my investment strategy is incurring large realised or unrealised losses then that is fine by me.....I posted once before that where people in a forum like this think I am on a scale ranging from bankrupt to Bill Gates is of no interest let alone consequence to me at all... :D
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The comment was/is general,only you know how you control you income producing investments.The comments were /are for those who have seen the conceprt discussed and may not have understood both the up and downside.

Re your question about my or anyone else commenting on something they are not active in, to me is showing your frustration....after all, I'm not involved (directly at least) in politics, sport and a host of other areas but I like everyone else is 100% entitled to comment on them if they wish.....the same applies to trading or whatever in shares.....
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Having an opinion is fine.
I certaintly do get frustrated when you or anyone else makes un qualified "opinion" and present it as often as you do as a tried and true methodology particularly when you dont use it in trading.There are many here who are discretionary traders and many have some great wins---just as many find it difficult infact frustrating that they cannot find a consistently profitable method in the way they trade,even in a raging bullmarket.
There are good reasons for that.There are tried and proven ways to reverse that frustration and become consistantly profitable but it takes time and flawed theory isnt helping anyone.Anyone can have a spectacular return very few have a consistantly profitable way to trade.If they did they would be down at the bank borrowing all they could get at 8% and trading it at 20 to 100s of %.Some are trading their own super funds and as we get older as you know thats a very serious commitment.
Like you I have my method which works for me and its very similar to all those I know have a method which returns consistant profit.Other than Radge I'm yet to see a consistantly traded short term method trading stocks.
Might be out there but I havent seen it.Many here like me would love to see one demonstrated as thats what most here attempt to do. I'd just love to see one so that I could say that it can be done.In 12 yrs posting I'm yet to see one---other than Radges.

I could be wrong, (but I doubt it) ,your posts sound to me at least that you get very easily worked up and frustrated when someone posts something that although suits and works for them you don't necessarily agree with. Why not try and relax a bit and not take things so seriously ;)
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Yes I can see where you may think that.Infact there are quite a few I have a great deal of respect for as I can see from their input that they are not working on theory.Many trade and invest differently to myself and those who are clearly leaders or innovators are easily identifiable and I have learnt much from their posts--as others have. Although I have trouble with some of the calls on the SPI thread,I have to admit that there is some good stuff posted there (Once you peel away the self congratulation,and Gann rubbish). Simple support and resistance level trading has seen some great trades.
Maybe I'm different to most in that seeing first hand is believing and the most educational.

In the mean time I will continue to post what I like when I like about any subject I like with no consideration at all for what you think of my posts..
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Ofcourse you will.
 
Hi sam76

sam76 said:
I use a coin.

Heads - I'm in
Tails - I'm out

worked well so far....

:p:
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like it.......short and sweet and easy :D and ducati will probably be your friend with that system since he/she believes that charting has a 50/50 overall result in the long run ;) (just kiddin' ducati )

cheers

bullmarket

ps...have to go...Prison Break starts in a few mins :) have a nice evening whoever reads this :)
 
I have a neural network model that i have traded in the past year. 80% Wins and 40%pa return. :cool:
 
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