What now?

[MrBurns]

Ok it's happened the markets are in freefall pretty much.

Sooooo....... Should one be watching for the bottom and diving in ? OR

Is this the start of what will be normal trading levels for the forseable future.

Is there any rush for the long term investor ?

If this is the start of the revaluation of so many companies is it better to wait till the dust settles then buy in ?, no point buying Xbank or any other company if it will lose 30% of it's value over the coming few months.

I'm inclined to wait.

I don't think there are any bargains out there considering the landscape will be completely different in a few months.

I think it's yet to hit BHP and RIO but it will happen, I simply dont trust China and india to maintain present levels of growth and BHP and RIO will be the first to suffer.

I think this is a major correction and it will be years before recent company values wil be seen again.

 

[apra143]

Re: What now ?

What now(?) indeed!

I guess my two main questions would be:
(1) How can one determine stocks that are undervalued?
(2) What signs to look for that indicate a return of confidence?

 

[wayneL]

Re: What now ?

What now(?) indeed!

I guess my two main questions would be:
(1) How can one determine stocks that are undervalued?
(2) What signs to look for that indicate a return of confidence?

My opinion is that just about any company's balance sheet has now been rendered as fanstasy.

It's a whole new ball game now. Determining value is going to be a crap shoot IMO.

 

[ROE]

Best time for focus investing

Look for a dozen or so well manage company and place all your money in it
I got a few left on my list but the price is not right yet maybe it will be today

 

[CAB SAV]

What now? Sit and wait.

 

[agro]

Ok it's happened the markets are in freefall pretty much.

Sooooo....... Should one be watching for the bottom and diving in ? OR

Is this the start of what will be normal trading levels for the forseable future.

Is there any rush for the long term investor ?

If this is the start of the revaluation of so many companies is it better to wait till the dust settles then buy in ?, no point buying Xbank or any other company if it will lose 30% of it's value over the coming few months.

I'm inclined to wait.

I don't think there are any bargains out there considering the landscape will be completely different in a few months.

I think it's yet to hit BHP and RIO but it will happen, I simply dont trust China and india to maintain present levels of growth and BHP and RIO will be the first to suffer.

I think this is a major correction and it will be years before recent company values wil be seen again.

are you trying to pick the bottom?

 

[ROE]

Re: What now ?

My opinion is that just about any company's balance sheet has now been rendered as fanstasy.

It's a whole new ball game now. Determining value is going to be a crap shoot IMO.

never fear most people focus too much on company balance sheet and stuff
yes it is very important stuff but when you have found a well manage company that stuff becomes less relevant, more stuff will come into play

Learn to use Maths and probability and applied to stock and you see nice return in these time of chaos.

I don't know for sure but I suspect Warren Buffett doesn't pick his stock purely on balance sheet, he's a smart mathematician and he applied it to his selection.

How else would you place 20% of your of your money into one stock without work out the probability of it making you a very good return and the probability of it going under?

I use them and it been GOODDDDDD

Try Kelly Optimization model sometimes on your stock ... you see magically stuff happen

Applied Kelly model to BNB and you stay away doesn't mater how much money they make

Probability of BNB going down if debt rise = high
Probability of money becomes more expensive in the future = Certainty

hence the stock either goes bankrupt or there is no money to be made in the future
and stock are value on future earning not present earning

 

[MrBurns]

are you trying to pick the bottom?

Well that would seem a good way of making money but in this particular crises more likely to lose it.

I think unless your a seasoned trader and can pick stocks that might bounce you're better off out of it.

No doubt you have to wait and see now.

The fallout from Lehmans and AIG (even though it's been "saved") hasnt even begun to soak in.

The loan to AIG is for 2 years, what happens then ? Sooner or later the Fed will have to turn off the life support system, it's bad enough that they have underpinned Freddy and Fannie.

What this means is (potentially) that our banks and resources stocks will all be revalued, life goes on they will be ok but at lower levels than the hyper space of recent times, what those levels will be is the key question and no body knows that.......yet.

On the other hand I might be dreaming all of this and the all ords might be chasing 7000 again in a month.....ohh look there a flying pig.

 

[ROE]

What now? Sit and wait.

you can wait and time the market

I use reasoning and mathematic formula

 

[CAB SAV]

Hope the fed's have another $50 billion or so tucked away for early next year when Gen Motors & Ford come knocking on their door.

 

[wayneL]

you can wait and time the market

I use reasoning and mathematic formula

I prefer squiggly lines with pretty colours (plus a bit of common sense). It's made me a decent living for 7 years.

 

[MrBurns]

Hope the fed's have another $50 billion or so tucked away for early next year when Gen Motors & Ford come knocking on their door.

On that point I doubt they will - this from Business Day -

The US government sought to raise $US40 billion in a bid to boost the Federal Reserve's financial firepower to fight a crisis of confidence that has rocked Wall Street and beyond.

Other central banks also battled to restore confidence on financial markets as share prices gave up brief gains they had made on news of the bailout of insurer AIG and the cost of short-term borrowing remained high in interbank markets.

The US Treasury Department said it was selling $US40 billion of cash management bills - effectively new debt - at the request of the Federal Reserve to help the central bank ''better manage their balance sheet,'' as a Treasury statement put it.

 

[white_goodman]

we may be seeing a whole new era of how business is done in the aftermath of this turmoil.... we all need to just be ready to jump on when the rally starts...

 

[mrgroundwork]

the bottom will be when:

- the negative media articles prediciting doom and gloom hit thier highpoint, we are talking front page on the paper stuff, cabbies talking abouit it etc
- when even mug punters try and start shorting the index/stocks

 

[MrBurns]

the bottom will be when:

- the negative media articles prediciting doom and gloom hit thier highpoint, we are talking front page on the paper stuff, cabbies talking abouit it etc
- when even mug punters try and start shorting the index/stocks

Well thats any day now, but I cant believe it's that easy.

I've got an itchy trigger finger now but as soon as I jump I know it will declne again and stay there for 2 years.

I think rather than try to pick the bottom it's best to wait until the smoke clears and that may be a couple of months.

I reckon this time around it wont be a sharp rebound but a gradual increase as stability resumes, so if you're in it for the long term it's better to wait and not try to pick the bottom.

 

[white_goodman]

the bottom will be when:

- the negative media articles prediciting doom and gloom hit thier highpoint, we are talking front page on the paper stuff, cabbies talking abouit it etc
- when even mug punters try and start shorting the index/stocks

im a mug and im shorting.....


RALLY STARTS TOMORROW!

 

[nomore4s]

Anyone want to have a stab at what will happen in the good old US of A tonight?

Up, down or flat?

Another couple of hundred off the dow would make things interesting tomorrow.

 

[M34N]

Anyone want to have a stab at what will happen in the good old US of A tonight?

Up, down or flat?

Another couple of hundred off the dow would make things interesting tomorrow.

DOW Futures showing +98 as I speak (4:00AM NY time), but like the past few days this means nothing!

I think we are due for a good old dead cat bounce, assuming there is no more 'unexpected' bankruptcies or surprises, that's the vital part. It's too hard to pick because, like this entire mess in the past week alone, who would of thought we would have all this happening ALL AT ONCE?

 

[white_goodman]

to me if it goes up itll be low volume test upwards, but its got plenty of legs left me thinks