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- 28 May 2004
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Realist said:Well I did ramp CQT I admit, not for self gain though, more for fun.
Realist said:Well I'm guessing SYM and MPH must have announced future earnings will be down? A profit warning or something.
So investors calculate future earnings against the current price and they value it less, so the current PER may be 5 or 10 but they are bargaining on future earnings being lower not higher.
Companies with good future earnings have a high current PER and companies with poor future earnings have a lower current PER. Again the pass mark is around 15.
Try and find a company with excellent future earnings prospects and a lowish current PER - you wont!!
wayneL said:(Just had to have an excuse to use that emoticon)
Knobby22 said:They are my two worst stocks from last year.Both bought under PEs of 10 and both coming out later with surprise profit warnings. The point is evident.
wayneL said:Yes indeed!
Meanwhile :hide:
(Just had to have an excuse to use that emoticon)
Realist said:Pulling out and watching will only cost you money.
Realist said:Still for a punt I think the odds are slightly better than other punts. I'll hold and hope simple as that. I'll risk losing some money in the hope this is a 5 to 10 bagger, the upside potential is good enough for me to hold. Unfortunately I did not buy many in the first place, so I decided instead of taking profits to pump even more money in at what I deem to be a reasonable price considering their results so far, it could be a stupid mistake or I could have a real winner, I'll wait and see (and pray).
Realist said:I always look at 5 years worth of earnings not 1 for this very reason.
imaginator said:It seems that the media is setting the confidence or fear of the public every day.
See a few weeks ago, when the US rate rose, 1 week before on a day the fell tumbled "because of worries of rate rise". Then the next 2 days it shot up. Then 3 days before rate actually rose, the news said people were scared again. BUt 2 days before the rate rose, it went up. And on the day of the rate rise, it went up.
And in Australian side, when they announced rate could rise on Tuesday, stocks went up because USA went up. BUt on Wedmesday, even when USA went up, the news in Australia says "Australians panic over rate rise" right in the morning. It made the All Ords tumble.
Anyone agree with this?
Realist said:I always look at 5 years worth of earnings not 1 for this very reason.
nizar said:Yes im sure this is the Buffet and Graham investment philosophy!!!
Just buy a spec and wait and hope and pray
michael_selway said:Yes not only this years NPAT (EPS) but forecast EPS for the next 5 years?
thx
MS
Realist said:It is worth looking at of course, it is only a forecast though, a prediction, which is just as likely to be wrong as it is to be right.
Realist said:Try and find a company with excellent future earnings prospects and a lowish current PER - you wont!!
Realist said:Hi Michael,
Yes banks are probably the most accurate with their predictions.
What do you think of PRG - you like it? To me it has exactly the sort of financials and slow consistent growth I like. And for you it has the future EPS growth forecasted.
chennyleeeee said:Does anyone still remember what this post started of as? ~~~
CHEN
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