Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

What are we buying on Monday?

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Sharkman said:
i do know however that if i don't dollar cost average in on a semi-regular basis, something like this will happen: not quite at the bottom yet... just a little bit further down then i'll buy... this is just a dead cat bounce, should wait for another fall... this rally seems to have run out of legs, don't want to get head faked, just hold off a little bit more... oh wow it's right back up to where it was before, and i'm holding all this cash, how did that happen?
Click to expand...
That has familiar ring to it.:xyxthumbs
As you say, if you are in for the long run, quality always bounces and dollar cost averaging is important.
 
Enjoying the thread discussions. I think a V-shape recovery is hard to see now. Relentless flow of bad news.

Hits to the bottom line take a while to flow through the system and be reported. Also a technical recession is looking ever more possible for Aus
 
Luckily my stops cut me out of the market after a 5% drop from the top. It's now close to a 20% drop. Days like this don't come around too often, so who's buying today? I gotta admit to a rather large case of FOMO...
 
princeplanet said:
Luckily my stops cut me out of the market after a 5% drop from the top. It's now close to a 20% drop. Days like this don't come around too often, so who's buying today? I gotta admit to a rather large case of FOMO...
Click to expand...

I .... don't...... think..... so..... There are so many challenging factors at play here - oil price collapse, collapsing industrial production, collapsing transport and leisure industries, to name just a few.

Corporate survival in the next 12 months will the main game IMV. Actually identifying who will survive and getting into them at some stage would be a worthwhile effort.

And maybe shorting the hell out of ones you believe will fall over or just need a nudge.
 
I remember the panic sell of the gfc. I think I had a free Huntleys subscription. They were giving buy orders all the way down. When it kept dropping they lost their sht and admitted they didn't know where it was going to go to. May have recommended selling because they couldn't see the bottom.
I thought that was a signal to buy and got lucky on the timing.

This time doesn't look that much different.

Stimulus (the great reversal) must be on its way. Otherwise everyone's super accounts will evaporate
 
moXJO said:
I remember the panic sell of the gfc. I think I had a free Huntleys subscription. They were giving buy orders all the way down. When it kept dropping they lost their sht and admitted they didn't know where it was going to go to. May have recommended selling because they couldn't see the bottom.
I thought that was a signal to buy and got lucky on the timing.

This time doesn't look that much different.

Stimulus (the great reversal) must be on its way. Otherwise everyone's super accounts will evaporate
Click to expand...
Yes these are the times when people actually make a lot of money, but it isn't for the faint hearted, I wonder how many younger people are going to take the plunge and jump in?

How many times have we heard, the baby boomers were lucky they had the GFC and the market growth afterwards, well now it is opportunity time for the next generation.:xyxthumbs
What is the old saying about faint heart never ...

https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...s-smashed-in-market-rout-20200309-p5488o.html
 
sptrawler said:
Yes these are the times when people actually make a lot of money, but it isn't for the faint hearted, I wonder how many younger people are going to take the plunge and jump in?

How many times have we heard, the baby boomers were lucky they had the GFC and the market growth afterwards, well now it is opportunity time for the next generation.:xyxthumbs
What is the old saying about faint heart never ...

https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...s-smashed-in-market-rout-20200309-p5488o.html
Click to expand...
I moved 7% of my super from bonds into equities on Friday 28th Feb. Will do another 5% tomorrow probably. I had 17% ish of my super in bonds.


I also put money to work late January and also last week, not an index investor so there's a tonne more red than if I was an index investor but also usually a tonne more green than the index. I'm happy to wait 30 years before I need to start drawing down on this stuff.
 
I was surprised by the fall of oil and ended up buying OOO too high at $9.15 average as my orders were taken.....unheard fall;
I had an overall OK day due to the PMGOLD, BBOZ and shorts I keep ranting about sold about...
Can you imagine that just last week: I could buy
QANC47 :qantas put @4.8 may bought 4/03/2020 @0.38 sold today @ 0.85
FMGWY8 forescue put $9 may bought 3/03/2020 27 @ 0.43 sold today@ 0.99
More than the actual overall fall today the craziness of the market reaching high late last month whereas the economic signs where everywhere to be seen..
 
Sharkman said:
i agree, but i don't know for sure where the bottom will be, and neither does anybody else.

i do know however that if i don't dollar cost average in on a semi-regular basis, something like this will happen: not quite at the bottom yet... just a little bit further down then i'll buy... this is just a dead cat bounce, should wait for another fall... this rally seems to have run out of legs, don't want to get head faked, just hold off a little bit more... oh wow it's right back up to where it was before, and i'm holding all this cash, how did that happen?
Click to expand...

This is recency bias.
 
InsvestoBoy said:
That said, vol on the XJO doesn't seem to have gone to the same levels as in the US, yet, still well under 30 at the highs.
Click to expand...

upload_2020-3-9_19-34-53.png

Still pretty chill, all things considered.

I suspect AUDUSD/AUDJPY/AUDCNY is acting as a massive shock absorber for both our economy and our stock market.

So did you bid the open on VAS @kid hustlr?
 
I'm now nearly 6% underweight equities, looking forward to putting some money to work on payday!
 
InsvestoBoy said:
View attachment 101146

Still pretty chill, all things considered.

I suspect AUDUSD/AUDJPY/AUDCNY is acting as a massive shock absorber for both our economy and our stock market.

So did you bid the open on VAS @kid hustlr?
Click to expand...

Sure did!

Should have waited til close cost myself a few bucks there.

All part of the accumulation plan although I must admit it's pretty scary seeing the swings .

Confirms 2 things for me (which I already knew)

1. I'm very comfortable with my buy and hold portfolio and process
2. I could never have a large % of my wealth in a simple buy and hold portfolio, as the pot grows I will need to explore other avenues, an 8% down day whilst Im accumulating on a
'relatively' small base vs an 8% draw down in 20 years as I near the end of my working life is a completely different kettle of fish
 
Bought Select Harvests, Tassal, fleetwood and API. Minimal debts with SHV and FWD - which is always good in a bad time to have, people still going to eat almonds, and buildings still need to be built - cheap prefab ones would presumably be more popular now. Tassal and API have been on my buy list but felt they were overpriced. Not anymore. Fish and drugs - also should be fairly stable.

Have yet to decide if I will add to the wreckage of what I have in other investments. Disappointing that I added to FXL, VRT and CCV Friday. Hurt this morning. I've put back in to the market on Friday and today what I've spent the last several months taking out. Probably should have waited a week. Don't have a good feeling that this is the bottom. Thank you Russia and Saudi Arabia.
 

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