Is it little wonder when you make your thoughts very well known by posting on most strategy threads, yet there is no
real evidence from yourself and your trades.....that journal has gone mighty quiet
What do real trades have to do with this discussion? Nothing. I've stated my reason for not posting in my journal at the moment. I don't see any evidence on the other side of the topic Sam, and there rarely ever is.
May be your 2 cents, but not every topic has two right answers. The maths is in my favour, as it almost always is since my positions tend to be mathematically based.
Hopefully we can all agree R:R and winrate have an inverse relationship, that is that increasing R:R decreases winrate, and that decreasing R:R increases winrate. If you don't agree, then consider whether price in a market is more likely to move 10 tick or 20 ticks in a certain direction. Hopefully you will agree that it is more likely to move 10, and then you would be automatically agreeing that winrate and R:R have an inverse relationship.
So now, the question is no longer whether changing R:R affects winrate, but by how much. I've stated that if a breakeven trader changes R:R, the winrate will compensate to continue to give a breakeven expectancy. Why do I say this? We already know this from the Martingale strategy, but instead of applying it to individual events like a coinflip, apply it to groups of events such as half a dozen coinflips. Martingale over 6 coinflips will result in a high winrate, but a poor R:R.
The reason why simply changing R:R won't produce a profitable trade is the same reason why martingale does not work. If people still don't understand, I can explain why martingale doesn't work, and then tie that into trading. Honestly though, if someone doesn't know why martingale doesn't work, they're not ready to trade.
Tech/a said:
You/I anyone can manipulate if they actually trade their R/R and if you actually recorded and followed your R/R you wouldnt have posted the above.A trader doesnt decide anything it IS what it IS.
Of course R:R can be manipulated, it's as easy as setting a stop loss and target profit. This isn't theoretical R:R, this would be someone deciding their R:R. What they can't decide is their winrate.
Im not talking theoretical R/R at the start of a trade either.
I'm talking closed trade R/R from your figures of past trades since you started.
You constanly work at increasing R/R and win rate.
Then we are talking different things, and I'd say you're coming at this in a strange way. Adjusting R:R in the way you are talking about means increasing our skill. This is competely different to what I'm talking about, which is arguing against the idea that predetermined R:R alone can produce a positive expectation. This is the only thing I've debated.
I do work to increase my final r:r and winrate, but again, I'm talking about the people who before the trade think they can turn themselves from a breakeven coinflipper into someone hitting 40% at a predetermined 3:1.