WES - Wesfarmers Limited

[Garpal Gumnut]

I agree Kennas with 5th wave EW. Meant to mention it in my post. Where does the 5th wave go to? I could look it up but you probably know. Probably a fib type extension from the high. Garpal Gumnut

 

[theasxgorilla]

Nice chart Asxgorilla. What software do you use? Gumnuts wait and wait for fire or rain then grow. Your name equally is peculiar for a trader.
Garpal Gumnut

Haha, touche Gumnut

I use Market Analyst (version 4).

 

[reece55]

Time for a CDF perhaps...

Must say, I'm still bearish about the general market right at this point. Wouldn't want to commit overly to something that will be effected by a general market correction - like this - perhaps...

Kennas

Agree that the XAO is presently showing strong bearish divergence, so in regards to the market in general, I am generally looking for shorts as opposed to longs, as I think that will be our next move. But in saying that - WES looks like a great opportunity here. You could always set your stop at about 37.00 and go long here - to me it looks to have the potential at least to $40.00 (highs in August 05) and potentially 42 per Gumnut, provided the bullish move remains intact. Good risk/reward here IMO - I wouldn't gear too much here as on that kind of a setup, I the risk would be about 3.2%, so maybe warrant may be a goer. Haven't looked at options, but I would assume IV would be high due to LBO talks.

Cheers
Reece

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks Theasxgorilla., and all other posters. a great venue for sharing ideas which I use too infrequently.
Lets all expect good trading fortune from WES. My buys have been executed. No exciting CDF's, Warrants or Options. A div in feb and a rise above $42 will satisfy me.
Garpal Gumnut

 

[theasxgorilla]

I agree Kennas with 5th wave EW. Meant to mention it in my post. Where does the 5th wave go to? I could look it up but you probably know. Probably a fib type extension from the high. Garpal Gumnut

Typically Wave 5 is between a 50% and 78.6% extention of Wave 3 (taken from the bottom of Wave 4) but can be 100% or more. See below (monthly chart of WOW) for a good example of a Wave 5 going more than the distance...150% so far.

I think WES is a good trade. It's in the mother-of-all long term up trends and has a habit of doubling in price when it moves.

 

[noirua]

WES have an interesting write up by Aireview: http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=4845&setSub=1

Worth looking at on break-up rumours alone.

 

[noirua]

Still looking good at $39.52, up 29c today.

The approval by ACCC of the purchase of Linde Gas Pty., by Wesfarmers and completion by Feb 2007, will have had nothing to do with the share movement. This will have been, continuing thoughts on reports of a buy-out by a Private Equity Buyer.

 

[Julia]

Typically Wave 5 is between a 50% and 78.6% extention of Wave 3 (taken from the bottom of Wave 4) but can be 100% or more. See below (monthly chart of WOW) for a good example of a Wave 5 going more than the distance...150% so far.

I think WES is a good trade. It's in the mother-of-all long term up trends and has a habit of doubling in price when it moves.

Gorilla:

I'm a bit puzzled by this post. The thread is about WES and the chart is for WOW?

Julia

 

[Sean K]

Gorilla:

I'm a bit puzzled by this post. The thread is about WES and the chart is for WOW?

Julia

Hi Julia. I think it was just to give an example of where a wave 5 could go. Sean

 

[noirua]

Something odd is going on with WES trading. Having hit a high of $39.80 they fell abruptly to $39.11, and then rebounded to $39.35 a few minutes ago.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

As you would be aware Noirua a stock like WES is traded by large funds as daytraders trade penny dreadfuls. A variation such as their price today I would accept as the market deciding that is its fair value at that price at that moment in time. The chart on a daily basis after today will get the candle guys going into a high spin.(or a turning one)(or a spin) (or just a turn) (or stargazing) .
Garpal Gumnut

 

[TheAbyss]

I have just joined the WES holders ranks for a while. Garpal, love your style.

 

[TheAbyss]

Any thoughts on what impact the report due today will have?

 

[theasxgorilla]

Any thoughts on what impact the report due today will have?

Hopefully a rapid move with extreme volume to the high side of $40

 

[TheAbyss]

Well it is certainly a rapid move. Wrong way though.

Dividends up 30.7%. Profits decrease 12%.

4 of the 6 divisions were up though. Yet another opportunity to buy shares at a cheap price in a quality company. The market hates any news that is less than spectacular doesn't it.

 

[noirua]

I'm still banking on a break-up of Wesfarmers as this could prove interesting as well as profitable.

 

[TheAbyss]

It is a chance. The private equity funds are causing some waves at the moment. I see CSR is on the rise again this week. What are the odds of speculation resurfacing shortly?

Wes are a solid stock whether they break up or not IMO. I have no intention of parting with them and picked up a few more at a good price today. The SP is kicking back up a bit already. At one stag eit went to 37.45 but back to around the 38.00 mark now.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Any thoughts on what impact the report due today will have?

I would guess the funds will sell WES down on small volume for a few days and then reaccumulate before it goes ex-div. If it goes to $35 ?I'll be back in for some more. Long term I agree its a $40+ stock.

Garpal

 

[UMike]

Won't go anywhere near $35.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Won't go anywhere near $35.

as Pauline said "Please Explain" not that I disagree , but this is a forum of ideas not statements.

Garpal