IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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WES - Wesfarmers Limited
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IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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I am afraid during this run up I have been part of the shoulda / coulda crowd.........been busy with other stuff but still no excuses.
Yeah but, in my case, but I have to recognise certain limitations of mine. First, the amount of cash available unless you wish to go into debt – and there is a 400 page thread full of angst and anguish on the consequences of doing that. Second, when you buy at a low point of $13.50 there is this weird, vain hope in your mind (at least for me) it will remain around that price so when the cash builds up you can buy more.
Oh, the perils, trials and tribulations of a buy and hold. Dang it, an afternoon with the strat is becoming a better option by the minute.
As a postscript, it could be worth the risk depending on one's personality and viewpoint. The company is holding $1.2B in cash from the sale of the insurance assets.
WES has a tendency to return cash to shareholders by way of a special dividend or capital return.
However, it has two problem children Target and Coles liquor, so whether this has any impact remains to be seen. Not sure why they just don't get rid of them. Maybe they are worried about doing a "Dick Smith."
Oh, the perils, trials and tribulations of a buy and hold. Dang it, an afternoon with the strat is becoming a better option by the minute.
As a postscript, it could be worth the risk depending on one's personality and viewpoint. The company is holding $1.2B in cash from the sale of the insurance assets.
WES has a tendency to return cash to shareholders by way of a special dividend or capital return.
However, it has two problem children Target and Coles liquor, so whether this has any impact remains to be seen. Not sure why they just don't get rid of them. Maybe they are worried about doing a "Dick Smith."
WES is using analytic system now, targeting customers that has good record of driving and
no claim for other thing like home and content.
I never claim insurance my whole life and I got a whoopy 40% cheaper than my current insurer.
I think this is a more profitable path, very much like Warren Buffett GEICO, only targeting good people and offer them cheap insurance, all float but rarely pay out.
analytic system is a big thing, any business that has these system should be able to chose their most profitable customers and those who doesn't end up with the bad one.
no claim for other thing like home and content.
I never claim insurance my whole life and I got a whoopy 40% cheaper than my current insurer.
I think this is a more profitable path, very much like Warren Buffett GEICO, only targeting good people and offer them cheap insurance, all float but rarely pay out.
analytic system is a big thing, any business that has these system should be able to chose their most profitable customers and those who doesn't end up with the bad one.
It now seems there could be a need for fitting rooms in Bunnings as WES has bought Pacific Brands Workwear. Looks like it'll be de rigueur to wear Hi-Vis when searching for the tap washers or buying potting mix.
Also, as I guessed, the company is intending to return $1 per share (65% to 75% ff dividend and the rest a capital return) around December followed by another share consolidation.
pixel
DIY Trader
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Over the past 5 years, WES has done really well for its shareholders: Tripling in price and paying good dividends on top: almost $10 in total plus full franking credits.
On the Monthly chart, I notice the $35 resistance (100% line) has held for almost 2 years.
18 months ago, it's hit another resistance level at $44.
Can we expect another breakout into the $50's any time soon?
I don't hold at present, but setting an alert for $44 break-and-hold.
On the Monthly chart, I notice the $35 resistance (100% line) has held for almost 2 years.
18 months ago, it's hit another resistance level at $44.
Can we expect another breakout into the $50's any time soon?
I don't hold at present, but setting an alert for $44 break-and-hold.
Really interesting observations Pixel... I'm a retiree and hold WES and have been thinking of adding...
Thanks
rick
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Testing its 12mth low today. Looking good for a small add.
pinkboy
pinkboy
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Knicked under the $40 today. Couldnt pull the trigger today.
Tech guys, next support around the $37 level?
pinkboy
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WES has bounced off from the trendline support, and if All Ords started it's third wave( see charts in Ew XAO thread), WES has a similar structure, which can produce an advance to new highs.
Though wave (2) looks a bit short in terms of time, but Primary ((2)) was short too. Anyway, I think that this Trendline is a key and if breached down, we could see a more prolonged correction. But at this stage I bought WES close to the line and try to hold untill the wave structure generates a sell signal.
WES was holding really well compare to WOW, but one reason for this could be that WOW advanced to new Highs above 2007 and WES not. That's why WOW is correcting in a steeper manner.
Short term hourly subdivisions are not clear at this stage, but with market gaining momentum to the upside WES should follow soon.
Though wave (2) looks a bit short in terms of time, but Primary ((2)) was short too. Anyway, I think that this Trendline is a key and if breached down, we could see a more prolonged correction. But at this stage I bought WES close to the line and try to hold untill the wave structure generates a sell signal.
WES was holding really well compare to WOW, but one reason for this could be that WOW advanced to new Highs above 2007 and WES not. That's why WOW is correcting in a steeper manner.
Short term hourly subdivisions are not clear at this stage, but with market gaining momentum to the upside WES should follow soon.
Triathlete
Keep it Simple..!
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Hi Rimtas,
I thought I would put my own analysis forward on WES using the monthly chart.My view is if we close above $44.60 then we could see the stock move towards the $55 level as this would be the 100% level for a LT Wave 3 and also using some price tables I have show this as a strong level,I have placed some other prices as to what I believe will be the most significant going forward based on my analysis.I would expect the sub wave 5 of the LT Wave 3 to also reach this level before seeing any reversals, although nothing is certain and who knows if we can stay above the trend line maybe even reach the $82 some time in the future....
Hi Triathlete,
thanks for your input. I usually do not try to predict how far the wave can go, because it is subject for the future wave subdivisions. At the end, you will see that the wave is complete, market always goes to the point where more or less we can suspect that the Top of the Impulse wave at Cycle Degree is near.
What I would like to see in the 2015-2017 is the Point of Recognition, or the middle of the wave, which you could see and recognize even on a monthly chart if you understand what I am talking about. This would be a continuous multimonth Gap and Go movement, and profits at this stage would be big and quick. But I don't know when this will occur, probably after couple more first and second waves of lesser degrees at monthly chart, so this could definitely take years. Most optimistic scenario could be end of 2015, but I think market won't make it to that point in such a short time.
A good guidance for this wave section to occur is when All Ords would jump above 2007 top.
All we need to confirm that long term uptrend is about to resume is just for WES to go above 2007 top (47,50), otherwise there are still many bearish scenarios with one of them having a possibility to crash WES towards GFC lows. New highs would eliminate them all.
thanks for your input. I usually do not try to predict how far the wave can go, because it is subject for the future wave subdivisions. At the end, you will see that the wave is complete, market always goes to the point where more or less we can suspect that the Top of the Impulse wave at Cycle Degree is near.
What I would like to see in the 2015-2017 is the Point of Recognition, or the middle of the wave, which you could see and recognize even on a monthly chart if you understand what I am talking about. This would be a continuous multimonth Gap and Go movement, and profits at this stage would be big and quick. But I don't know when this will occur, probably after couple more first and second waves of lesser degrees at monthly chart, so this could definitely take years. Most optimistic scenario could be end of 2015, but I think market won't make it to that point in such a short time.
A good guidance for this wave section to occur is when All Ords would jump above 2007 top.
All we need to confirm that long term uptrend is about to resume is just for WES to go above 2007 top (47,50), otherwise there are still many bearish scenarios with one of them having a possibility to crash WES towards GFC lows. New highs would eliminate them all.
Julia
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rimtas (and triathlete) thanks for going to the trouble of providing your detailed analysis. It's interesting and much appreciated.
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Hey rimtas, wonder if you would be kind enough to update your opinion on WES? Looks primed for a another breakout test should macro results be good tomorrow.
Triathlete
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Just updated my own technical view of WES on the monthly chart.Price has broken through the previous ATH $45.90 which was marked as a buy point although this may be due to the stock going ex div on the 24/2 @$0.89.
At todays closing price of $46.39 that would take price back down to $45.50 it will be interesting to see if price stays above $45.91 or goes back under after the ex div date. I will wait until further confirmation that price will stay above $45.91 this would give me more confidence that price will hold here and move up over the coming months.
I am interested in other views from both Technical and Fundamental analysts thanks.
At todays closing price of $46.39 that would take price back down to $45.50 it will be interesting to see if price stays above $45.91 or goes back under after the ex div date. I will wait until further confirmation that price will stay above $45.91 this would give me more confidence that price will hold here and move up over the coming months.
I am interested in other views from both Technical and Fundamental analysts thanks.
galumay
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I wouldnt be buying at the current price from an FA point of view, but happy to hold. Its certainly priced above my IV for it, but there are still some strong metrics, operating margin is still good, m/b and p/s rations are still healthy.
Some of the recent news was quite encouraging, Bunnings is just booming, despite the apparent competition, and Target & KMart seem like they might be turning the corner. Resource sector was weak as expected.
Just keep collecting the cheques each time we pass go!
Hi Pingu,
There are no changes at this point, no important levels were reached neither wave structure is forecastable meaning that patience is the key now.
Also I am not sure what chart should I trust, as after the NOV 2014 share dilution there are few different options.
The first chart is from my trading platform, where I can see the slight chance of a complete five wave move up from the wave (2) bottom. But in higher degrees this count doesn't feel right, it would look best as WES is preparing for a breakout. So only guessing now.
Second chart is from other source, and the bottom is different here, breakout is already in place. And I actually like it better from the wave perspective.
Both charts are bullish, no matter how you label them. Wave structure upwards is Impulsive, sporting "fives", which indicates uptrend. I want to see a sizeable advance to at least $50 to make a better assessment where the stock is located, so time is ticking....
It took time, but it's finally here. The current structure looks best as a double three correction, which looks complete. The fact that WES bottomed on the lower trendline, adds more confidence to the count.
So short term I expect it to rally towards upper trendline which sits at $43,5-44 area. If it manages to break it up, it would be bullish.
I am aware that WES could still make another "Three" from the area mentioned, but this would create the Triple Zigzag, which can be a Leading Diagonal, especially if prices break the DEC 2014 bottom of $40.23. But let's leave this for the future, as short term rebound looks more likely.
So short term I expect it to rally towards upper trendline which sits at $43,5-44 area. If it manages to break it up, it would be bullish.
I am aware that WES could still make another "Three" from the area mentioned, but this would create the Triple Zigzag, which can be a Leading Diagonal, especially if prices break the DEC 2014 bottom of $40.23. But let's leave this for the future, as short term rebound looks more likely.
