Weekly Portfolio - ASX

[dpong]

Excellent thread! Way to trade through the crash of 2020! Great commitment!

Though you asked some questions almost a year ago, here are my answers:

1) I never use limit orders for a sell. A sell is a sell. I sell the open, period. Limit orders for a buy make sense.
2) If all my positions are full, and I have a buy and a sell, I sell this week. Next week I look for a new buy and buy it then.

 

[qldfrog]

Excellent thread! Way to trade through the crash of 2020! Great commitment!

Though you asked some questions almost a year ago, here are my answers:

1) I never use limit orders for a sell. A sell is a sell. I sell the open, period. Limit orders for a buy make sense.
2) If all my positions are full, and I have a buy and a sell, I sell this week. Next week I look for a new buy and buy it then.

Like your option 2:
Did you find it better than sell and then buy the same day by hand potentially chasing vs the open?
Any test backtest on that scenario?
i would assume it will reduce your exposure which will be beneficial in falling market/stock so could give a small edge? Obviously in a rising stock/market you miss one exposure for a week.does that compensate?
Last point: that 2) is much easier to manage, no drama if you are away on monday morning

 

[dpong]

Less drama is my answer. I put in bids pre-market. My system says buy or sell the open. If I had sufficient funds (due to less than 100% invested) I will buy and sell on the same open. But if I have to sell one to get the funds to buy the other I will sell and wait for next week.

I've done no testing.

 

[Warr87]

Excellent thread! Way to trade through the crash of 2020! Great commitment!

Though you asked some questions almost a year ago, here are my answers:

1) I never use limit orders for a sell. A sell is a sell. I sell the open, period. Limit orders for a buy make sense.
2) If all my positions are full, and I have a buy and a sell, I sell this week. Next week I look for a new buy and buy it then.

thanks mate. I'm starting to agree with you for sells. I end up chasing. Gotta stop micromanging them I think and just sell. #2 I'm definitely going to think on

 

[qldfrog]

Less drama is my answer. I put in bids pre-market. My system says buy or sell the open. If I had sufficient funds (due to less than 100% invested) I will buy and sell on the same open. But if I have to sell one to get the funds to buy the other I will sell and wait for next week.

I've done no testing.

A serenity choice ?

 

[Warr87]

Anyone know why CORN and SOY futures shotup over night? Both have huge candles. @ducati916 @peter2

SOY 1H



CORN 1H

 

[peter2]

From Marketwatch.com. You know the reasons don't matter when we're trading the chart. All softs have been in a strong bull trend for months.


Corn price chart shows a possible "blow off" top. Consider tightening your trailing stop.

 

[Warr87]

From Marketwatch.com. You know the reasons don't matter when we're trading the chart. All softs have been in a strong bull trend for months.

View attachment 118321
Corn price chart shows a possible "blow off" top. Consider tightening your trailing stop.

Thanks peter. You're right, doesn't matter as I just trade the chart. But to see both shoot up was interesting and I was curious. Both have been in some nice trends lately. I wish I had finished my papertrading Corn and Soy earlier to get more of that action. Oh well.

My corn stoploss is at 491.17 (bought at 494.62 and price now at 532.41). It's a trailing stoploss of the 15 period lowest low (1H chart). Will be a few more bars before it gets brought up. I'm real tempted to tighten that SL but I wont interfere with my system.

From what I can see they have been in an uptrend since August.

I hope others got in as well.

 

[ducati916]

Anyone know why CORN and SOY futures shotup over night? Both have huge candles. @ducati916 @peter2

SOY 1H
View attachment 118318


CORN 1H
View attachment 118319

Usually in commodities it indicates a supply/demand imbalance due to any number of factors: weather, planting, etc. That probably (as indicated in the news clip) is part of the problem.

The second issue is the issue of an across the board inflation. All commodities are classified under PPI prices. Ag. PPI inflation moves directly and significantly into CPI (food, which is excluded within the model) inflation, where lower socio-economic persons are really hit hard.

Fed. policy is to raise inflation.

Low prices through 2020 would have (likely) reduced planting acres. Looking at previous periods of low prices combined with a general commodity inflation 2008/2009 and there would still seem to be legs on the trade higher.



jog on
duc

 

[Warr87]

Thanks @ducati916 . I knew that commodities tended to do better in times like 2008/9 but I didn't really have much of an explanatory force behind it like you. Thanks for the analysis!

My trades got out overnight. Not surprising as they are opporating on a shorter timeframe, 1H. they did good though.

SOY futures 1H




CORN futures 1H



Soy locked in around 2% for my account whereas corn locked in approx 15%.

Its not all roses though. As a trend trader I take these wins but I get false breakouts all the time which also chip away at the open profits. I make the money from getting setup early and being on the right side of the trade.

I've tried to find some good shorting parameters for my EA but I don't have enough data to make an informed decision. My broker just can't supply it to me right now which is a shame. Based on the graph in from duc if it continues it will be a very nice bull run if it is cyclical (and hopefully I can short on the way down too).

 

[qldfrog]

Inflation is now moving in the mainstream finance news, Brazil raising rate, USD value increasing aka global inflation for exchanged goods so commodities, oil, food,you name it

 

[Roller_1]

I've tried to find some good shorting parameters for my EA but I don't have enough data to make an informed decision. My broker just can't supply it to me right now which is a shame. Based on the graph in from duc if it continues it will be a very nice bull run if it is cyclical (and hopefully I can short on the way down too).

Have you seen tradeview?
Your Trading Automated. - Next Level Trading - Trade View
i checked it out a while ago and looked pretty good, although i haven't done much EA work.

 

[Warr87]

just had a quick look. looks pretty and all,but i'll save the cash.

 

[Warr87]

Week 50

Buy: 2
Sell: 2 stale exits

Pretty flat week. I am down less than 1% compared to last week, leaving a portfolio total of +32%. Not much to add this week, as far as the stock portfolio goes it has been pretty quiet and benign.







Other Updates:

The CFD account is where most of this weeks action occured. I still continue to be caught by a few false breakouts in ETH, though not entirely lost. I won a few AUDUSD trades in the MR strategy I have going. I haven't got around to fixing my ASX200 MR strategy though (I know the main issue but I need a few ideas to fix it). It is the argricultural breakouts that really made this week: SOY and CORN futures. My donchian EA got me in right before the upmove. Added a decent amount to my account! it then continued to drift down a bit but has started to breakout again.

The CFD account is now at +46% realised. A big change since not long ago I was in a drawdown. I have always intended to add more to this once it proved itself. I wonder, is now the time? I only seeded it with $1000, I'm wondering if its time to add a few more to it. I do need to add a shorting component to the EA but it doens't seem to be entering the trades in backtest. It is rather strange. I also want to add energy to the mix as well (NGAS, OIL, etc.) but nothing of note has worked as yet.

Another out-loud thought. While I initially wasn't interested in getting RealTest, wanting to expand into futures (as I have wanted to do before even papertrading this system), I wonder if RealTest would be a better solution for that. I'm unsure if I would try to import contract data from yahoo through RealTest, or if I find the future ETFs as a replacement and trade using those (takes the problematic away of rolling over contracts). Any advice regardng that would be appreciated.

 

[Warr87]

On monday I sold JLG and CSR due to stale exits. They were replaced by CLQ and NCZ. Something I'm no entirely used to is selling into a non-volatile market. I didn't have any issues getting my fills for those positions. It was nice lol.

Current open positions:




I made a mistake with the HappyCat strategy. I worked on the weekend and I thought I had seen the signals Friday arvo. I remembered Monday morning that I hadn't. By the time I did it was around midday. I missed one of the buys (as it took off). Rather annoying. It was another position which is driving the strategy's return. I have missed a few now, but this one is because of my mistake.

As for the CFD trading. I got stopped out pretty quickly with CORN and SOY (twice). They both triggered a buy but sold for losses after the false breakouts. Few other losers too and a few small winners. Overall its a few % lost. But can't always win. What's more surprising is that GOLD is now active. Interesting to see if that will go for another bull run.

Asked for some advice on a new version of my EA to including shorting. Will try to include a shorting component soon, if it works out.

 

[Warr87]

Week 51

Buy: 1
Sell: 1

A number of stale exits came up, but none for me. Just 1 close condition (C < MA). I lost 2% this week. Not a big deal. I actually recovered a lot from Monday. Not sure how others went but overall I'm not too worried. Though the XAO and XAOA went up by a small amount. With the changing out of my positions slowly, there is bound to be some lost momentum. THe strategy tests very well in sideways markets or a slight trend upwards.




Other updates:
HappyCat gained some ground this week.

Checked the ASX300 Super and it is doing very well!

My CFD account has lost around 10% or so. Its at +34%. One thing that is hurting me is the false breakouts for my agriculturals (corn, soy) and ETH. ETH is at a very high point right now and keeps trying to break higher. It succeeded a little but reverses. Lets hope the next time it can punch through like BTC.

 

[Warr87]

Week 52

Buys: none
Sells: 4 (MA close condition), 1 (stale exit), 3 (stoploss)

I started the week off lower. Which happened the week before but the difference being I had recovered—not this week. I saw a few bad days towards the end of the week. I was also getting losses with my CFD trades too. So it was a bad week for the market overall I guess. I didn't realise how down I was until I checked yesterday. This week was -8.84%, last week -2.6%, week before that -0.72%. That kind of loss this week certainly wasn't welcome as I was feeling particularly good about my systems. But as I've pointed out, it can't keep going on forever.

My index filter has been triggered and now my SL's are 10%. A number of stocks also triggered a close condition. I will be closing out 8 out of 20 positions. Some of those already pretty profitable so I will be realising some good returns. I have no crystal ball so hard to see if this is just a whipasaw event or my system getting out before it goes pear shaped. Time will tell.

I finish year 1 of trading with a real account with +21.29% (watermark of +33.44% in week 49). I used to think +10% would be a great return, which would be from a hedgefund. My perspectives have obviously changed. I'm hoping this will be one of my worst years and I can continue to get a minimum of 20%. That would obviously be amazing. I know some years I will be breakeven. I also think some years will see 21% as being a mediocre return. The equity curve below certainly shows an interesting year of trading. Not a good year for the XAO and some volatile times in my return.









Other updates:

CFD trading was down this week too. I did have a few good wins with soy and corn but a few losses too. ETH still seems to be trying to break through. A win or 2 but mostly losses there. The AUDUSD system I had running I had to close as the number and quick succession of losses means I am no longer confident in it. Just the MR system I had for ASX200 futures, in a market that drifts downwards it just hemorrhages money. The AUDUSD system would enter then stoped out only to re-enter on the next bar and do the same thing as the price drifted down.

On friday my EA's entered into Gold, Soy, Corn, BTC, and ETH. I hope there will be a better week next week. Realised account is now +34% (with unrealised positions +36%).


Happycat also took a big hit this week. now its at +8%.

My monthly momentum system was doing great until Wednesday/Thursday. It was at +20% but now at +13%. Interesting to see the monthly system lose almost as much as my weekly system over the same few days. The monthly system avoids a lot of noise but it is even slower to react for obvious reasons. Though as the CFD trading (almost exclusively using 1hr bars) or the weekly system, they all got caught out this week. A proper update will be provided during the week.

 

[Newt]

Awesome work Warr87. If you can make 21% in a year like 2020 them I'm sure you'll keep pulling well ahead in years to come. Experienced traders may have been talking of high double or even triple digit returns based on establisedh knowledge, systems and experience, but for your first serious year trading - well done!

 

[Warr87]

Awesome work Warr87. If you can make 21% in a year like 2020 them I'm sure you'll keep pulling well ahead in years to come. Experienced traders may have been talking of high double or even triple digit returns based on establisedh knowledge, systems and experience, but for your first serious year trading - well done!

Thanks mate! Radge sent out an email a few weeks ago to his subscribers. He made amazing returns last year. I felt dwarfed by his success, and a few others. But with limited capital and my first very simple system, probably doing better than most.

Looking forward to an even more successful second year. I will reach my own personal goals if I can keep up his kind of return compounded.

 

[Warr87]

Week 53

Buys: 8
Sells: none

Another down week. Pretty disappointing. My system has surprising taken a large hit over the last few weeks. The selloff on monday for my exit/stales meant I could take some of my profits. Overall I came out positive for those realised returns but still ended up down for the week. A bit of frustration (not so much at losing money as you will also lose money, but rather the rather quick loss of return and loss of momentum). As you can see in the sold trades below, NCZ, CLQ, and BRL, were big losses. They hadn't been in for long and was more poor timing. These things happen.

I'm still at +17%. This is still a good yearly return. But I remain annoyed at losing half of my profits over the past 3-4weeks. The index was down last week and this week it closed up. This means I will open new positions on Monday. I always lose momentum after the index is down. If the market is down again next week, it will hemorrhage more of my money, if it at least remains flat then the system will pick up momentum again. So what to do? Well, no crystal ball here so I will buy as I have buy signals.

I am noticing more discrepencies with my reporting as well. It's slightly off on my spreadsheet and when I login. I should do an audit of my system. I've been extra careful with inputting data but something has gone wrong somewhere. Don't put much faith in my exact numbers that I am reporting, but they are at least ballpark. Chopping and changing the capital allocated to this has made it hard to keep an accurate record.