Weekly and daily forex analysis

[mauriforex]

Hi everybody!

My name is Maurizio Orsini, I'm an italian indipendent trader working in the Forex market with the Price Action Daily Method. I use to analize my charts with no indicator or oscillators but just the most important thing...the PRICE! I work with weekly and daily time frame (max H4) realizing 15-20 trades each month, respecting in a strictly way the rules of my method and especially my money mangement. I use to analize each evening, (italian time) in only 30 minutes, the Forex market searching for a signal of my trading plan and I open a position after having analized the weekly and correlation situation.
I'm not a scalper so I don't spend my time in front of my PC...I just analize for a few minutes the situation, after Wall Street closed, and if the price shows me a good opportunity (also in term of risk/reward) I take a position otherwise I just turn off my trading platform and wait the nex day!
I hope you'll enjoy my "humble opinion" and forgive my bad english.
I insert my last analysis (realized only 1 hour ago) and wish you all a nice trading time!
Cordially, Maurizio

ITALIAN CRISIS

Goodevening,

this week starts with great caution for equity markets, waiting for the European Summit for the Bank Union, but also begins with a heavy downward for Milan Stock Index.
As we already have been thinking in the weekend, the news of the resignation of Mario Monti (Italian Prime Minister) and the imminent coming back of Berlusconi led a sell-off on the list of Milan, a spread that flew upward (up to 380 points this morning, from 280 of 5 days ago!), as well as an increase in the yield of italian government bonds (and for correlation of Spanish ones). Europe does not see kindly at all the return of the previous Italian prime minister, due both to the low appreciation between the European governments and his “electoral” policy against spending cuts which could destroy what has been built in the recent months by the more esteemed Monti and his Brussell colleagues.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Cad: this pair just closed the strong downgap realized at the beginning of last night on the 1.2780 level. The retracement of this resistance area will take me to look for one of my short set up, in order to go back into the bearish short-term trend with the first target on the 1,26 support level.


That's all for today!

See you tomorrow, arrivederci.
Maurizio

 

[bailx]

Re: Weekly and daily analysis

Might get lucky, you think Maurisio. i also find it difficult to understand your patients?

 

[mauriforex]

INTEREST RATE IN USA TOMORROW

Goodevening,

discounted by the time the news of the resignation of Mr.Monti, stock indices rose with good movements in European stock markets also supported by the German ZEW index macro data higher than expected (6.9 in December).
We had a bullish day in the U.S. market too, which has been waiting for tomorrow's decision on interest rates and the speech of Fed Governor Bernanke (who could also speak about Fiscal Cliff).
USD had a weakly day (such as Gold and Silver) in contrast to high-yielding currencies which are moving up to resistance areas with many currency pairs.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Usd: the bullish force pushes euro up to area in 1.30. The new resistance level where I’ll look for a short signal is on area 1.3030. We'll see tomorrow how Fed’s decision will influence this pair.


Arrivederci!
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

ECB WILL BE THE EUROPEAN FED?

Good evening,

after a 17-hours long meeting, the Ecofin has reached a historic agreement on the Bank Supervisor. All finance ministers decided to award, from March 2014, the control of european banks to the ECB, in line with a true european integration and a gradual increase in the ECB's independence as U.S. Fed. In the same context, it was definitively ratified the aid package to Greece (in relation to the Buy Back operation) that will receive in the next days 34 billion euros (plus another 15 billion in the 1st quarter 2013 ).
Switzerland's central bank, meanwhile, decided to keep interest rates unchanged and reiterated the goal of preventing the appreciation of the Swiss franc (and therefore the level of 1.20 as minimum price against the euro).
ECB monthly report, this morning, announced negative datas: the last quarter of 2012 has shown a major weakness in the economy and it is expected an increase of unemployment rate in the short term; the situation should gradually improve in late 2013.
Lastly, we had a weak session for stock markets, an stable euro and a rise of the USDollar.

ANALYSIS

Gold: bad day for the yellow metal that breaks $1.700 drawing to a price level that is very interesting! Infact, the whole area between $ 1670 and $ 1690 is to be kept absolutely monitored in order to find a Buy setup according to the long-term bullish trendline.


That'all for today, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini

 

[bailx]

Why would you go short EURUSD. i hear about strong EUR and negative USD. I would easpect these 2 too back resistance. don't you?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Why would you go short EURUSD. i hear about strong EUR and negative USD. I would easpect these 2 too back resistance. don't you?

they will have moments of weakness in a trend, so if you can catch a counter on daily or weekly that might ad up to 100+ pips but counters are tricky in timing.

on the 1 hour E$ i can see a possible sell setting up but wont be certain till the close of the current bar.

 

[bailx]

Sure looks Doji. and your certainly got the goss. But i'm thinking T/a. That it wants to breakout of its current range very soon.

wait for signal, you may say? i believe 1h chart will maintain its trend tomorrow and go long. just on hindsight mind you of course may be wrong$.

 

[mauriforex]

Hi guys,

I'm looking for a short setup in Eur/Usd because we are near an importante resistance level (1,310 area and moreover the weekly chart shows a long term downtrend as a dynamic resistence in this level)! I don't open a position without a clear trading signal of my method and I don't analize 1h chart but only daily and sometimes H4 charts!
So let's see if the price will show the intention of a down movement to catch some good pips!
Thaks for your opinions and have a nice day!
Maurizio

 

[bailx]

No'worry's Maurio,

I see Eur/Usd has reached it resistance peek last night as I thought it would. My money's still on the euro bulls breaking resistance next trade. Perhaps with some shorts at the beginning of trade, given resent news and euro's versatile market. May I say I adore your patients for trading in only 4h and daily charts. I think your methodology is good, but are you missing the plot on variable stability.
How long does it take for you to enter a trade? Surely you don't just base everything on the news?
I'm not saying that your wrong by any means I just have a positive objective that the euro will breakout of resistance? I may be wrong as the odds are against it?
News ( headlines ) for Eur/Usd:

EUR/USD

The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are narrowing, indicating that this pair could see a price shift in the coming days. Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart is approaching the overbought zone, signaling that the shift could be downward. Traders may want to open short positions for this pair.

I traded last night based on some other news:

Today, euro traders will want to pay attention to several German indicators, specifically the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI. Earlier in the week, the euro saw significant gains following a better than expected German ZEW Economic Sentiment figure. If either of the German indicators shows growth in the euro-zone’s biggest economy today, the euro could see additional gains before markets close for the weekend.

 

[daveM]

Hi guys,

I'm looking for a short setup in Eur/Usd because we are near an importante resistance level (1,310 area and moreover the weekly chart shows a long term downtrend as a dynamic resistence in this level)! I don't open a position without a clear trading signal of my method and I don't analize 1h chart but only daily and sometimes H4 charts!
So let's see if the price will show the intention of a down movement to catch some good pips!
Thaks for your opinions and have a nice day!
Maurizio

I am thinking that price will retrace also, this was quite a pop upwards

 

[mauriforex]

Hi!
I usually enter in a trade after my evening (italian hour) analysis, at market or (expecially in this period) with a pendent break out order. I don't trade news, I just "read" the chart according to what the price is showing me in daily time frame and I take a position only in presence of one of my trading signals!
I learnt to be patient because I understood that 10 or 15 trades each month are sufficient to obtain a good profit
without stress or spendind the whole day in front of my PC!
Have a nice week end, greetings!
Maurizio

No'worry's Maurio,

I see Eur/Usd has reached it resistance peek last night as I thought it would. My money's still on the euro bulls breaking resistance next trade. Perhaps with some shorts at the beginning of trade, given resent news and euro's versatile market. May I say I adore your patients for trading in only 4h and daily charts. I think your methodology is good, but are you missing the plot on variable stability.
How long does it take for you to enter a trade? Surely you don't just base everything on the news?
I'm not saying that your wrong by any means I just have a positive objective that the euro will breakout of resistance? I may be wrong as the odds are against it?
News ( headlines ) for Eur/Usd:

EUR/USD

The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are narrowing, indicating that this pair could see a price shift in the coming days. Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart is approaching the overbought zone, signaling that the shift could be downward. Traders may want to open short positions for this pair.

I traded last night based on some other news:

Today, euro traders will want to pay attention to several German indicators, specifically the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI. Earlier in the week, the euro saw significant gains following a better than expected German ZEW Economic Sentiment figure. If either of the German indicators shows growth in the euro-zone’s biggest economy today, the euro could see additional gains before markets close for the weekend.

View attachment 49976

 

[mauriforex]

WEEKLY OUTLOOK

Hi everybody,

another week of Forex trading is over with important macroeconomic news from the United States (still waiting for the Fiscal Cliff) and Europe. Sunday will be a very important day for Japan, with the election of the new premier, and I "see" an increase in Yen volatility due to the consequences of the monetary policy that will be realized in case of Mr. Shinzo Abe's victory.
Here you can see some interesting chart situation for the next week!

Aud/Nzd: after touching 1.2520 resistance area, the price closed below 1.25 . I will look for a possible return on the previous resistance level to find the opportunity to sell at a better price.


Eur/Gbp: the price is rising up to 0.8160 resistance area where, in the next few days, I will try to find a short set up with first profit target in 0.8090 level.


Eur/Usd: the U.S. production macro data has led to the up movement of the most important pair. The price has reached the important resistance area of 1.3170 where I will look for (even in H4 tf) a short signal of my trading method to enter a downward movement with first target in area 1.30 .


Usd/Yen: in the resistance level 83.70 the price reacts with a bearish candle. I won't trade this signal because of the uncertainty that japanese elections will generate. According to the medium and short term uptrend I prefer to wait for a pullback to 81.80 support area to find a Long signal.


I wish you all a nice weekend, see you next monday!
Maurizio

 

[TulipFX]

Hi mauriforex,

I like your charts. Your entries look very reasonable. Would you mind adding in stop and profit levels?

 

[bailx]

Maurio,

Interesting concepts, I see there's a lot of selling going on 'Any particular reason?
I hope in time I will learn and pick up your strategy. Maybe I will be able to devise a system, to go inside with my trading. Perhaps use this to re-assure my own T/A. 'I hope you don't mind?

Anyway don't let me rain down on your parade! I'm always one to speak my mind and I like to keep a conscious objective. ' Maybe I'll pick up a few tips? As I'm sure you do.

As an Intraday trader I'm very speculative on your results. Much like TulipFX. 'How do you aquire your Buy Sell signals? 'Being on a Day & 4H chart basis, to trade successfully, you still need to be able to pin point or forecast your trade set up for better Returns?

'What is a pendant breakout order?

You have a good week end yourself.

 

[mauriforex]

Thank you but it's an analysis of a possible situation not an entry because there is not yet a trading signal! Without a clear trading setup of my method I dont' enter and I still can't say the levels of SL and TP!
Bye!
Maurizio

Hi mauriforex,

I like your charts. Your entries look very reasonable. Would you mind adding in stop and profit levels?

 

[mauriforex]

Hi Bailx,
there is a lot of possible selling oportunities because many pairs are in key resistance levels (and I usually use to Sell on resistances and Buy on supports)!The Price Action Daily method is "simple" and clear and I obviously don't mind if you want to use it as your trading system, you only need patience and high discipline..
I just work with 2-3 trading set up, basicly following the trend,and using the most important price levels of the chart to fix supports and resistences before and Stop loss and Take profit later! I have this key levels drawn in the chart and I just wait the price in those levels. When the price is there I wait for a trading set up to enter in the market: if there is no entry set up...I just look another pair or turn off my PC until the following day!
I wish a nice sunday to you too, arrivederci!
Maurizio

Maurio,

Interesting concepts, I see there's a lot of selling going on 'Any particular reason?
I hope in time I will learn and pick up your strategy. Maybe I will be able to devise a system, to go inside with my trading. Perhaps use this to re-assure my own T/A. 'I hope you don't mind?

Anyway don't let me rain down on your parade! I'm always one to speak my mind and I like to keep a conscious objective. ' Maybe I'll pick up a few tips? As I'm sure you do.

As an Intraday trader I'm very speculative on your results. Much like TulipFX. 'How do you aquire your Buy Sell signals? 'Being on a Day & 4H chart basis, to trade successfully, you still need to be able to pin point or forecast your trade set up for better Returns?

'What is a pendant breakout order?

You have a good week end yourself.

 

[mauriforex]

Sorry I forgot your question!
I didn't write correctly: I wanted to write "PENDING breakout order" that is a Sell Stop Order whis is realized when the price hits, with its downmove, the selling level you have fixed!
Greetings

Hi Bailx,
there is a lot of possible selling oportunities because many pairs are in key resistance levels (and I usually use to Sell on resistances and Buy on supports)!The Price Action Daily method is "simple" and clear and I obviously don't mind if you want to use it as your trading system, you only need patience and high discipline..
I just work with 2-3 trading set up, basicly following the trend,and using the most important price levels of the chart to fix supports and resistences before and Stop loss and Take profit later! I have this key levels drawn in the chart and I just wait the price in those levels. When the price is there I wait for a trading set up to enter in the market: if there is no entry set up...I just look another pair or turn off my PC until the following day!
I wish a nice sunday to you too, arrivederci!
Maurizio

 

[bailx]

My apologies,' My bad, a very stupid question. i already know what a pendant is, it works very close to the flags and indeed gives out the breakout order. ( Flags ) represent pauses while a trend consolidates and are reliable continuation signals ( Pennants ) in a strong trend. I seriously need to work on my daily trading. Whoops!!!

Sorry I forgot your question!
I didn't write correctly: I wanted to write "PENDING breakout order" that is a Sell Stop Order whis is realized when the price hits, with its downmove, the selling level you have fixed!
Greetings

 

[daveM]

We will have to see what the coming days show, as the Christmas approaches it may be a bit risky to be entering the markets.

Many traders are away from trading now until the New Year and that could skew a trading plan.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

sellers flanked, this why analyzing a market is pointless you have to act off what it's telling you now at your personal entry point. any NY session sellers in the eur usd just took a 79 pip hit with this mornings Gap. The market is bullish atm and I will be looking for longs until things change.

good trading.