Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

WEB, HWT

Whilst I follow patterns I don't pay too much attention to targets derived from them, however she may pause here as pattern target traders get off. :)
 

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tech/a said:
Dont you love the subjectivity of Technical Analysis.

Yep, I have often found that knowing possibly where sell points are and giving your stops a bit of leeway in this area quite often leaves you exposed to a longer trend. I have found that a lot of patterns can be viewed as medium term trend reversal/continuation signals as well as the shorter term target trades.
 

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tech/a
thanks for your words of wisdom, i have taken them on board and think many others should do the same. i admit to doing some research on you actually t2win led to reef you surely seem to have done the work..
cu Richard
 
Up until Nick Radge mentioned Fibonacci a little in his book, I'd never played with any of the Fib tools in AmiBroker. Recently though I've been trying the Fib retracement tool, and it's quite interesting (I think) how may retracements in different stocks do come down very close to one of those central levels before turning back up.

Web is a good example (although of course I'm not sure yet whether in fact it has finished going down for now). Before bouncing back up a little today, it bottomed out almost exactly on the 38.2% Fib line.

Now I'll have to read up on how the Fib fan and other tools works.

Cheers,
GP
 

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great 6 monthly report, net profit up nearly 1400%. md reports a record month in jan 06, and a record week in feb 06. trans values continue to rise sp surely will rise? who knows unfortunately i have need of funds soon so will have to sell in the near future.. this co. has been great for me.
 
webjet and the market amaze me at times. great 6 mthly report sp down?
maybe people think airlines commissions are going to have a major effect, web in fact charge their own commission, maybe david clarke selling some shares after report, his done this before? not a great confidence booster.
any ideas anyone? i still hold.
regards tricky
 
Richard Willoughby said:
webjet and the market amaze me at times. great 6 mthly report sp down?
maybe people think airlines commissions are going to have a major effect, web in fact charge their own commission, maybe david clarke selling some shares after report, his done this before? not a great confidence booster.
any ideas anyone? i still hold.
regards tricky

From t/a i would say this is going to go down slightly below the 30cps mark, but definetly not by much, mabey 1 or 2 cents at most. There is a downward trend with a leveling out at 30cps in the chart. I dont hold, but im considering getting in at 29cps.

Good company that still has alot of potential in my opinion.
 
i agree they (webjet) have said they won't be releasing monthly trans values so probably no announcements until mid april(i think they are releasing 3 mthly investor guidance or something like that) so it will prob not move up and could come back a bit. sadly i am going to have to sell in next couple of weeks as i need money for a property i'm buying, on the positive side this has been a great co. for me. they have cash in bank, no debt and record sales and net profit. its going to hurt to sell them.
cu tricky
 
Richard Willoughby said:
i agree they (webjet) have said they won't be releasing monthly trans values so probably no announcements until mid april(i think they are releasing 3 mthly investor guidance or something like that) so it will prob not move up and could come back a bit. sadly i am going to have to sell in next couple of weeks as i need money for a property i'm buying, on the positive side this has been a great co. for me. they have cash in bank, no debt and record sales and net profit. its going to hurt to sell them.
cu tricky

Not sure you've missed anything, while there has been some great transaction/revenue figures don't seem to get reflected in the sp. Maybe once they start advertising they'll get some attention!
 
burmans, web sp seems to move more on sentiment than great reports/figures, figs last year generally reflect what has been happening since this company became an internet seller. at the moment my opinion is that it will rise shortly, it cannot keep doubling its ttv without this being reflected in the sp. i don't hold and at the moment can't buy so they are sure to rise. :rolleyes:
cu tricky
 
Another great report and this time the technicals do seem to support the company a little bit, it seems that interest in this baby has started to turn.

Their cashflow looks very impressive.
 
Comment from the Auistralian

High-flyer Webjet ready to buy
Steve Creedy, Aviation writer
July 25, 2006
ONLINE travel service Webjet expects to build on a 330 per cent profit increase and a debt-free balance sheet to take advantage of "strategic opportunities" and increase its market presence over the next six to 12 months.
Unaudited figures issued yesterday showed that the value of Webjet's transactions increased by 122 per cent to $172.3 million for the year, as net profit before tax rose to between $3.2 million and $3.4 million, up from $700,000 last year. Operating cash flow was $4.1 million.

Webjet managing director David Clarke said he believed it was "more likely than not" that internet travel services would follow the consolidation seen in the bricks-and-mortar travel agencies, driven principally by the travel firm S8.

Mr Clarke believed that Webjet - which was profitable and cash-flow-positive, with no debt and more than $23 million in unencumbered cash - was well placed to take up any opportunity that presented itself.

"My guess is that, in response to the S8 initiatives, there will be another wave," he said.

"Within that environment, I think it is more likely than not that strategic opportunities will arise."

Webjet would not divert from its internet-only business plan.

It would also not be rushed into acquiring something because it was available at a cheap price.

"We will not, for example, buy a wholesaler," he said. "We will not buy a retailer in the traditional sense. We would not buy a call centre."

Emphasising that there were no targets in mind, he said it would be logical for Webjet to have a keen interest in internet hotel bookings. "But we're not going to rush into it," he said.

Asked about the surge in net profit, Mr Clarke said it reflected a substantial move of travel bookings towards the internet.

This was driven principally by the internet operations of domestic carriers, such as Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin Blue, and was part of a global trend.

The trend was not only evident within domestic travel, but simple international routes as well, such as the trans-Tasman and point-to-point destinations like London and Los Angeles.

"What is not yet happening to a major degree is very complex round-world itineraries," Mr Clarke said.

"I think that's the province of travel agents in the next 12 months or so. After that, who knows?"
 
David Clark, when will the SP increase?

Webjet have been recommended buy with several advisers for sometime. However the SP has not moved far.

Back in Sept 2005 WEB hit 49.5.

Since then we have had great results with increased sales and profits and $25 million in the bank. Still the SP hovers around 0.33.

Webjet ASX announcement Oct 2 2006 reported:
Webjet today announced a further record quarter to 30 September 2006 of total transaction value of $60.2m compared with $39.5m for the same quarter last year. Commenting, Webjet Managing Director, David Clarke, said:
“In calendar year 2006 we have produced continuous strong growth.

Webjet ASX announcement Oct 10 2006 reported:

Webjet today announced a Net Profit Before Tax (unaudited) of approximately $1.1 million for the quarter ended 30 September 2006.
Commenting, Webjet Managing Director, David Clarke, said: “The net profit for the quarter is a quarterly record result and is after fully expensing the substantially increased marketing cost foreshadowed in our annual report. Compared with the same quarter last year, after an increase in marketing costs of approximately $800,000, (from $400,000 last year to $1.2 million this year) we have at the same time increased profit by approximately $150,000 or 15% (from $950,000 last year to $1.1 million this year).

The marketing costs for the quarter are tracking in an aggressive but tightly controlled percentage band of approximately 2% of TTV and have developed substantially greater TTV momentum with quarterly TTV reaching a record of $60.2 million compared with $39.5 million for the same quarter last year.
This substantial momentum and increased market footprint is currently extending into the October quarter with all indicators currently strong.
Cash flow remains very strong with $25.2 million on hand as at 30 September 2006 compared with $23.1 million as at 30 June 2006, an increase of $2.1 million for the quarter.

Whilst no forecasts are made at this time we are delighted with the result.
Market guidance in relation to capital management and dividend policy will be provided at the forthcoming AGM on 2 November 2006.”
David Clarke
Managing Director
Webjet Limited
 
Webjet is recommended buy by Intersuisse Morning Notes October 17 2006
per below:

Webjet (WEB)
An excellent FY06 continues strongly into FY07
Buy
$0.34

Event
** FY06 Summary

FY06 was an excellent year for WEB. It is now seeing the emergence of ongoing value in its business model.

Key results were:

* Total Transaction Value (’TTV’) $172.3m, up 125%.

* Net profit before tax $3.5m, up from $745,000, NPAT slid to $2.38m from $2.74m with an income tax expense of $1.1m compared with a benefit of $2.0m in FY05.

* Cash flow from operations $4.3m compared with $1.4m in FY05.

* Cash on hand $23.1m, an increase of $19.5m over FY05’s $3.5m balance, due to operations and a $15.6m capital raising by option exercise.

WEB sees the general travel market for FY07 as challenging and has given no formal guidance for FY07. But cost pressures on the consumer can also provoke a desire for travel. Currently lower fuel costs will assist. WEB now has its best-ever market footprint following its strong growth in Total Transaction Value (TTV), or bookings in FY06. WEB aims to be a leader in market transparency and continues to report major figures each quarter.

** FY07 To Date

On 10 October WEB reported for the September quarter an unaudited NPAT of approx. $1.1m. Compared with the pcp, marketing costs increased from $400,000 to $1.2m. However, NPAT rose by 15% from $950,000 in 1Q06 to $1.1m in 1Q07.

Marketing costs are controlled at about 2% of TTV, which reached a record $60.2m in the quarter compared with $39.5m in 1Q06 – up 52.4%. TTV exceeded $1m in one day for the first time ever, on 29 August. Announcing this on 30 August, WEB added that it had been rated the No 1 internet travel agency, ahead of Flight Centre, for the previous three weeks, with the help of its marketing campaign with the National Seven Network.

MD David Clarke says this substantial momentum and increased market footprint is extending into the October-December quarter with all indicators currently strong.

Cash flow remains very strong with $25.2m cash on hand at 30 September, a $2.1m increase from the $23.1m at 30 June 2006. Further guidance will be provided at the AGM on 2 November.

The TTV figures for the last seven quarters indicate the rate of growth, in $m successively: 23.5, 23.6, 39.5, 37.4, 45.4, 49.6 and 60.2.


Impact
** Background

David Clarke notes in the annual report that during the twelve-month period over 500,000 airline passengers have booked through Webjet. Total Transaction Value has grown from around $5m a quarter in FY04 and shows six half-years of consecutive growth. Annual TTV has shown exponential growth, recently: $20.5m in FY03, $20.8m in FY04, $76.5m in FY05 and $172.3m in FY06, the last up 125% year-on-year. This ‘gross revenue’ produced ‘income’ of $1.4m in FY03, $1.5m in FY04, $5.3m in FY05 and $10.8m in FY06, the last up 104% year-on-year.

Turnover growth has thus not been at the expense of margin despite major reductions in airline commissions during the year, as was expected. WEB is enjoying increasing economy of scale of its cost base, allowing increased marketing spend (minimal in early years), which in turn appears to be enhancing TTV growth, at least at current levels. WEB is a strong generator of cash and operating cash flow is tracking profit growth, giving capacity for WEB to fund its ongoing development needs for capital expenditure and working capital. The Board is considering options for capital management, strategic opportunities and dividend policies.

Rapid changes in the travel industry pose challenges to traditional travel agencies as airlines cut back commission payments. This has created extra opportunities for WEB, which has an ongoing programme of development of its website and systems to improve customer experience and keep it in the forefront of changes. An example of recent challenges is the myriad of changing fuel and other surcharges that make true airline fare comparisons difficult.

** New Initiatives

WEB has major initiatives to launch in FY07, starting with the introduction of effectively one click online packaging to simplify and extend the ways in which travel product can be simply and economically purchased. Around December 2006 WEB expects to release a ‘transformational component’ of its travel service aggregator,called Planit. Planit will allow users to construction, budget and build both leisure and business itineraries, in an environment that can be shared with friends or colleagues to assist in travel planning in a secure framework. WEB expects it will add a dimension and depth to customers unavailable from any other travel provider in Australia and be a key component in its positioning and strategy.

WEB is also reviewing the extension of its market entry points in North America, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Asia. It has launched Webjet.com as its North American site to provide a special focus on Australia, as a destination, to the North American market. Others will follow. These market entry points take advantage of the technology platform and leverage its cost base and product range.

Additional initiatives already under way include a Trans-Tasman matrix display and Webmatch advertising of city pairs, both to assist users choose from selections of flights, the online booking of travel insurance, and Lotsof Hotels, embodying Travelport content. In April 2006 WEB entered a major supply and distribution alliance with Travelport, assisting it to materially accelerating the sale of hotel and accommodation products in the Australian market. Travelport is a global entity incorporating Cendant Travel Distribution Services, Galileo, Hotel Club, GTA, Orbitz, Ebookers and others. It supplies WEB with access to its global hotel database of some 60,000 properties.

** History and Shareholdings

WEB worked with global travel booking services group Galileo, Microsoft and others in developing its latest booking engine. It has had close relationships with Galileo and Harvey World Travel Group (HWT) in its development phases. During the last year, HWT was acquired by S8 (SEL). HWT had taken up various share issues in WEB and S8 sold the total 19% shareholding of 46.4m in February 2006. It continued to hold 56m options. In June 2006 these were exercised at 27.2 ¢ with a payment to WEB of $15.24m. The shares issued on exercise represented some 17% of capital and were subsequently placed, with the approval of WEB, with institutional and professional investors.

S8 operates a substantial number of apartment and resort properties and has maintained the working relationship with WEB, despite having no remaining shareholding. S8 has acquired Gullivers Travel and Transonic Travel, a division of which, Bestflights.com.au, has just expanded its deal with ninemsn, with a new booking engine.

David Clarke and substantially the same Board and management team have guided the growth of WEB from the outset. WEB has built depth into its management team as it has grown. Operations, Marketing, Technology, Service, Finance and Programming. Indicating its growing maturity, WEB recently appointed a new CFO after an initial contractual engagement early this year.

Thorney Holding P/L holds 14.6% of the shares. Galileo, through GIW Holdings CV, holds 8.5%. Director Steven Scheuer holds 7.7% and the Board together hold 11.6% of the shares and 13.7% of total shares and options. Shares currently on issue total 322.1m and options 21.5m.

** The Future and Recommendation

There is a clear trend to online booking of airline flights, hotel rooms, car hire and other travel needs. This will continue and in due course the strongest will grow fastest. WEB has competitors, notably the airlines themselves, a handful of major global players such as Travelocity, locally Zuji, flight centre and others, apart from traditional travel agents. Despite the competition though, WEB has attained critical mass and appears well placed to become one of those which grow fastest, or perhaps get taken over.

WEB first reached its current price in August 2005. We believe the uncertainties of ownership and share structure obscured the progress being made over the last year. Now that these are all cleared, the company has moved into a tax-paying mode, has substantial cash and has extended its excellent FY06 growth further in 1Q07, the shares are due for a re-rating. We have reviewed WEB as a Buy in Morning Notes last October, in April 2006 and on 7 August. Not only has the share formed a strong base but it now appears poised for take-off.

Based on four times the last quarter, WEB should earn $4.4m NPAT and generate $8.4m of cash this year. We of course expect the next three quarters to be far better than this. The earnings estimates shown in the table are thus seen as very cautious. The cost of a 1.5 ¢ dividend would be just $4.8m and WEB might well distribute more or use other capital management for shareholders.

The P/E of this internet growth stock could thus be well below 20x for FY07 and the distribution over 5%. Check it out at www.webjet.com.au and Buy - a ticket, a holding or both!



FYE Jun 2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E
Reported NPAT $m 1.4 2.4 4.7 7.5
EPS c 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.3
P/E x 56.0 37.2 22.3 14.6
EPS Growth % -- 50.0 66.7 53.3
DPS c -- -- 1.5 2.5
Yield % -- -- 4.5 7.5
Franking % -- -- 100 100

Prepared by Peter Russell. Intersuisse Estimates.
Note: EPS and Net Profit are pre-goodwill
 
http://www.travelweekly.com.au/articles/22/0c045222.asp

Webjet ready for Planit launch
Louise Longman

Webjet is gearing up to become the “MySpace of travel” by developing a user-generated site for members with links to packages, hotels, flights and features such as Google Earth.

It will launch its Web 2.0 user generated site Planit in December with the site being showcased on television commercials in early 2007.

“It changes us into the MySpace of travel with an environment to buy, plan, share and talk,” said managing director David Clarke. “It will give us a viral component.”

He said the aim will be to roll it out globally.

Acting as a community site for Webjet, Planit will aims to become a holiday planning centre with users able to share information, offer tips to fellow travellers and have instant chats through MSN Messenger.

Clarke said site will also have a “vault” where customers can store passport details, visa information and medical details.

Photos can also be downloaded onto the site.

Online packages meanwhile are scheduled to launch at the end of the month.


18 September 2006
 
WEB SP has increased 0.045 to 0.39 for high for many many months

Also, ASX announcement today by Flight Centre FLT

Flight Centre receives buy-out offer
October 25, 2006

AUSTRALIA'S biggest listed travel agent, Flight Centre Ltd, is seeking to privatise under a buy-out offer led by the company's founders and private equity firm Pacific Equity Partners.

Under the proposed deal, minority shareholders would be offered $17.20 a share by the consortium, made up of a cash payment of $17.00 a share and a fully franked special dividend of 20 cents.

The special dividend is conditional on the implementation of the scheme of arrangement following a shareholder vote.
 
Trading halt - does anyone know

For reasons unknown, there is no trading on the ASX for WEB today

There are buyers at 0.44 and sellers at 0.375

Is there any reason why WEB shares are not being traded today?
 
Announcement today TRAVELTECH

http://www.traveltechasiapacific.com/webjet-diversifies-as-sales--<br>profits-grow

Thursday, 26 October 2006 10:35:45 AM

Webjet Diversifies as Sales Grow

Webjet MD David Clarke
ONLINE retailer Webjet is starting to diversify income by placing its airline booking engine - which already generates most of the company's revenue - on three new websites within the next two months.

Managing Director David Clarke said the booking engine will soon feature on the Travelmate and Need It Now consumer sites, in addition to the Creative Holidays trade site.

The booking engine is part of the Travel Service Aggregator technology platform Webjet developed in conjunction with Galileo and Microsoft.

It can process up to 1000 transactions a minute and has been a key reason for the recent strong business performance of Webjet, which recently announced a net profit for the six months to December 31, 2004, of A$254,484.

Further profit announcements are expected with sales continuing to surge.

February, with just 28 days, was a record month with A$8.1 million in sales (11% up on January) driven by 22,000 bookings covering 30,000 passengers.

"Just wait until you see March," Clarke said.

He added that TSA, which is able to aggregate and display product from disparate suppliers, has allowed Webjet to increase sales while controlling staffing costs.

"Most of the incremental growth goes straight to the bottom line," he said.

"At Webjet we have 16 full-time staff," he said. "The throughput of the best run traditional travel agencies is around $1 million a year per staff member - we can do A$6 million per person."

Clarke said Webjet operates on a gross margin of 7% before costs - 6% is fixed while the remaining 1% goes to marketing, generally evenly split between online and offline.

"I believe you've got to be a visible presence in the real world - it's no good just being a cyber space identity."

While Clarke was reluctant to forecast because of ASX rules, he said "if the model holds true I believe our net margin can fall within the 1.5% to 2% range by the end of the year based on current trends."

Current rampant growth rates will be difficult to maintain, he said, although the company is aiming to double existing (low-commission) airline traffic, which currently dominates income at 60%.

Another 20% comes from car, hotels, and insurance, while the remaining 20% comprises services fees.

Webjet charges a A$6.95 service fee for every transaction, no matter what volume or amount.

"It's been in place for more than a year and we have had absolutely no resistance," he said.

Meanwhile, whatever resistance there was to investing in Webjet has evaporated.

Over the past seven months Webjet shares have increased from three cents to a high of 22 cents (check) and are currently trading at around 16 cents.

Daily trading volumes regularly exceed one million shares, resulting in major paper profits for some of the biggest names in Australian travel.

Significant investors who bought in or struck options deals when the stock was scraping the bottom of its range include Harvey World Travel (19%), Cendant (9%) and Australian Outback Travel (3.5%), which owns Need It Now and Travelmate.

Both Cendant (GDS, hotels and car - Avis, Budget) and Australian Outback Travel (Australia and NZ hotels) are also using Webjet to distribute its products, while the HWT alliance provides it with buying power.

The frenetic stock activity has inevitably led to speculation and rumour.

But Clarke said there has been little or no recent change in the Top 20 shareholders.

"We are not sitting here trying to organise a buyout or takeover," Mr Clarke said.

"If someone makes an offer, we'll consider it but it's not in the business plan or strategy."
 
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