Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

War threat in Ukraine

“It’s too late, my dear colleagues, to speak about de-escalation,” Ukrainian Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya said during an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council that happened as President Vladimir Putin ordered a “special military operation" and started attacking Ukraine.
 
can't buy Taiwan exposure either , remember MOST conquering countries aspire to the assets in the nation under pressure

( and old former buddy quote ' i ain't here for a holiday ' sounds funny until you understand his military career )

now sometimes a defending, retreating army can resort to 'scorched earth ' (leave nothing for the enemy to gain )

the place to watch is ( South ) Korea they will be under increased coercion to unite with the North , a direction they were already working towards very carefully , they will be caught like a deer in the headlights with this ( AND there is some ETF exposure possible )
 
Sitting on my hands and have increased cash, no plans to buy anything yet, nor sell, the simple fact is Australia's major trading partners are all in Asia, so what is happening in Europe doesn't really matter to Australian stocks in the long run, just a bit of short term pain, mainly oil related. My view is, if anyone thought Putin was going to do nothing about Ukraine wanting to join NATO is nieve. This invasion could of been prevented by the West saying Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO.
 
I wonder what would happen if Ukraine started to use asymmetrical warfare tactics on Russia ? It's clear Russia has overpowering conventional military capacity. However what if
  • Ukraine had identified the homes and workplaces of the most senior Russian politicians, military and social figures
  • Already taken steps to enable them to attack these sites
  • Set up a fleet of small attack drones to target these and other locations ?
This invasion has been on the horizon for many weeks. What strategies would the Ukraine military and government have developed to effectively respond to the situation ? Or would sending a fleet of killer drones into Putins grand estate really xiss him off.
 
Ukrainian forces say they have killed around 50 “Russian occupiers” while taking back control of the eastern frontline town of Shchastya. The agency says it could not independently confirm that claim.
 
Sitting on my hands and have increased cash, no plans to buy anything yet, nor sell, the simple fact is Australia's major trading partners are all in Asia, so what is happening in Europe doesn't really matter to Australian stocks in the long run, just a bit of short term pain, mainly oil related. My view is, if anyone thought Putin was going to do nothing about Ukraine wanting to join NATO is nieve. This invasion could of been prevented by the West saying Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO.

Short term pain? I would argue not...

We've just witnessed destabilisation in Europe that has forced several governments to reassess the safety of their borders. NATO is meeting as we speak as nearby eastern European countries feel that they are next in line!

This is not just a skirmish. Crimea was small portion of land that resulted in sanctions for several years.
This is an assault on an entire country, that may develop into a regional conflict and drag the rest of the world into it.

Meanwhile, China is biding it's time and learning from both Russia and the West. It shares the very same philosophies that Putin published only 2 days ago - it believes in reunification of ancestral lands and it does not abide by borders drawn up and enforced by modern international laws/treaties. Its eyes are set on Taiwan.

And now we await a response... From a Western world that has been hamstrung by its own internal squabbles. The USA of today hangs a series of humiliating losses on its belt.
Even if one were to ignore its record, Russia is not some Afghanistan or Iraq or Vietnam. The options for a physical response are limited. Diplomatic responses are off the table. Economic responses will just anger Putin and feed into his narrative.

My point is, this will be a difficult event for any government to respond to, let alone successfully resolve. And in the very likely chance that there is no resolution (given the possibility of MAD), what signal does that send to the world? That our rule-based system of international law is no longer valid? That Might is once again Right?
It would pave the way for nefarious actors to redraw borders and usher in a period of global instability.

The events of the past 24hrs will have impact us for years. These are global events and they will have a global impact. This has the potential to reshape economies for years and create new political blocs.

We thought coronavirus was a global challenge, this is bigger IMO and there is nothing short term about it.
 
Short term pain? I would argue not...

We've just witnessed destabilisation in Europe that has forced several governments to reassess the safety of their borders. NATO is meeting as we speak as nearby eastern European countries feel that they are next in line!

This is not just a skirmish. Crimea was small portion of land that resulted in sanctions for several years.
This is an assault on an entire country, that may develop into a regional conflict and drag the rest of the world into it.

Meanwhile, China is biding it's time and learning from both Russia and the West. It shares the very same philosophies that Putin published only 2 days ago - it believes in reunification of ancestral lands and it does not abide by borders drawn up and enforced by modern international laws/treaties. Its eyes are set on Taiwan.

And now we await a response... From a Western world that has been hamstrung by its own internal squabbles. The USA of today hangs a series of humiliating losses on its belt.
Even if one were to ignore its record, Russia is not some Afghanistan or Iraq or Vietnam. The options for a physical response are limited. Diplomatic responses are off the table. Economic responses will just anger Putin and feed into his narrative.

My point is, this will be a difficult event for any government to respond to, let alone successfully resolve. And in the very likely chance that there is no resolution (given the possibility of MAD), what signal does that send to the world? That our rule-based system of international law is no longer valid? That Might is once again Right?
It would pave the way for nefarious actors to redraw borders and usher in a period of global instability.

The events of the past 24hrs will have impact us for years. These are global events and they will have a global impact. This has the potential to reshape economies for years and create new political blocs.

We thought coronavirus was a global challenge, this is bigger IMO and there is nothing short term about it.
Excellent post & comments you made @ waterbottle
 


Get ready for some hot action


Doesn't sound like that drop is going to be affecting ordinary Russians... investors from the United States and Canada accounted for 54% of the total, with 22% from the United Kingdom and 21% from the rest of Europe
 

Doesn't sound like that drop is going to be affecting ordinary Russians... investors from the United States and Canada accounted for 54% of the total, with 22% from the United Kingdom and 21% from the rest of Europe
i wonder how many of them were pension funds ??
 

Doesn't sound like that drop is going to be affecting ordinary Russians... investors from the United States and Canada accounted for 54% of the total, with 22% from the United Kingdom and 21% from the rest of Europe
Russian dark money bought up London/US property and foreign assets. Also foreign politicians.
This is looking planned down to the t.
Also Russia is commodity rich.
Looking like a wash at the moment.
 
Old world diplomacy, when will we learn. There is of course a simple solution, if Ukraine a former prominent member of USSR can join NATO, then why can't Russia, problem solved. Perhaps the world should be run by women, instead of male despots, at least women would not be so keen to send their children to war.
I don't remember Margaret Thatcher taking a backward step.
 
I hope the west really hammers Putin, they have to get the people to turn on him somehow, i reckon the west should totally isolate Russia, no visas, no exports at all, no imports - nothing. i imagine the Saudis would be keen to see the POO double.

The west has absolutely no appetite for war so they have to wield power another way..
 

President Biden to speak at 12:30 p.m. EST US - 5.30pm GMT UK - ( 3.30 a.m. AET - 4.30 a.m. AET DST ) - 1.30 a.m. AWT - 4.00 a.m. SAT - 3.00 a.m. ACT -​

President Biden is expected to deliver remarks on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at 12:30 p.m. EST from the East Room.
 
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They're increasing ties with Russia not reducing them.

New 100 million tonne coal deal for example and new gas pipeline agreed in recent days according to media reports. China's pivoting toward Russia and away from Australia and others in that action. :2twocents
It’s kind of a zero sum game though, Russia is now going to be selling much less stuff into Europe, so what ever extra sales they make to China, will be offset by lost sales to Europe.

what that means is that producers that normally supply China, will have the options of routing product to Europe instead.

Take Hawaii for example, 60% of its electricity comes from Oil, a large chunk of that is sourced from Russia, but you can bet that market is now closed to Russia, so Russia will need to find markets of that oil, but Hawaii will be on the phone to all the non Russian suppliers.

what will probably happen will be trade in all the commodities affected will become less efficient, and products will be sent on longer routes, and more infrastructure will be built.

it’s going to be a net win for the global shipping industry and infrastructure builders.
 
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