WAF - West African Resources

[Sean K]

Thought it may have done a little better than 0.6% up on the open.
Mick

I agree, seems pretty good. No crocodiles around at all, except for the coup next door. Maybe just factored in?

If they get Kiaka up and running and they're producing 400Koz pa with not much more dilution it should be on double the current EV looking at it very simply. Comparing it to PRU it seems undervalued and PRU probably is as it stands.

There's a big chunk of West African coup discount applied to these.

 

[finicky]

A faint hope is born that WAF might have found a low and the hideous head and shoulders doesn't confirm. My limit of tolerance for holding has been a daily close or two around 70c - see back to the low of Feb/Mar 2021.

Held, but just clinging on.

DAILY

 

[Sean K]

A faint hope is born that WAF might have found a low and the hideous head and shoulders doesn't confirm. My limit of tolerance for holding has been a daily close or two around 70c - see back to the low of Feb/Mar 2021.

Held, but just clinging on.

DAILY
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I'm taking a longer term view with this and sucking up some short term pain. If I had complete faith it should be a buying opportunity. But, it's bloody West Africa and anything could happen. Maybe a coup against the coup leaders. Plus, I own too much of this to risk putting My Dog in the Moodle's food bowl. So, holding tight and praying to the gold Gods.

 

[mullokintyre]

Hit another 52 week low today.
Have put some low ball bids in case it falls further.
mick

 

[Miner]

Hit another 52 week low today.
Have put some low ball bids in case it falls further.
mick

Any idea on African direction to South Pole instead of Sahara ?

 

[Telamelo]

Hit another 52 week low today.
Have put some low ball bids in case it falls further.
mick

Noticed WAF @ 0.75c this morning on weaker US Gold price - careful bottom fishing here/trying to catch a falling knife as never know how much further WAF sp may fall too (reckon 0.55c-0.65c range a possibility imo as would be a great buy longer term you'd think)

 

[mullokintyre]

Any idea on African direction to South Pole instead of Sahara ?

Sorry Miner, that is too deep for my simple mind to comprehend.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Well, this is unexpected and slightly unusual. Maybe a first step to a merger or TO. Orezone's project looks OK. SP been smashed the past year. Some of the listed synergies make sense. Maybe WAF should have just bought them while their SP has halved in the past 6 months. Brokers average valuation is C$2.38.

 

[Telamelo]

Well, this is unexpected and slightly unusual. Maybe a first step to a merger or TO. Orezone's project looks OK. SP been smashed the past year. Some of the listed synergies make sense. Maybe WAF should have just bought them while their SP has halved in the past 6 months. Brokers average valuation is C$2.38.


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Fund manager MUFG since became a substantial holder here just recently after rotating from PRN etc. leaky rumour news?

 

[mullokintyre]

Well, this is unexpected and slightly unusual. Maybe a first step to a merger or TO. Orezone's project looks OK. SP been smashed the past year. Some of the listed synergies make sense. Maybe WAF should have just bought them while their SP has halved in the past 6 months. Brokers average valuation is C$2.38.

Didn't see that coming!
Mick

 

[finicky]

WAF the second worst performer of the week on the ASX200 after MFG.
The chart has decisively broken the final support that I considered tolerable at 70c (I'd actually pick the topping neckline as being at 90c). My plan was to capitulate at break of 70c but I've decided to hang on and risk the lot as I'm only holding 10,000 shares. I took profit with half my original holding of 20,000 @ 1.19 back in January after a post by greggles alerted me.

Held

 

[Telamelo]

Noticed WAF @ 0.75c this morning on weaker US Gold price - careful bottom fishing here/trying to catch a falling knife as never know how much further WAF sp may fall too (reckon 0.55c-0.65c range a possibility imo as would be a great buy longer term you'd think)

Reckon WAF is a chance of nudging 0.60c-0.63c range soon given current strong bearish momentum... I've got an alert set for 0.55c-0.58c levels if I get lucky

 

[Sean K]

Reckon WAF is a chance of nudging 0.60c-0.63c range soon given current strong bearish momentum... I've got an alert set for 0.55c-0.58c levels if I get lucky

It's heading that way. Gold has had a shocking couple of weeks and bad 6 months. Pretty much all downhill from $2050 ish. Signs of hope overnight with a slight pop.

MC of WAF will be close to $600m at 60c. Producing 200Koz pa up to 400K with Kiaka in late 25. Not sure how to work out the financials with the addition of the $265m loan for the Kiaka build but H1 NPAT of $80m should make it $160m for the year.

Will be interesting to see where the Orezone MOU leads.

 

[Sean K]

Not sure why WAF doesn't just buy ORE if there's so many synergies. While WAF has lost a lot of value the past few months it would be a good opportunity to tack on ORE while it's been hammered even worse. It seems like an obvious consolidation and would push WAF into the 600Koz pa zone once Kiaka is up and running. Looks like a no-brainer really. Can't find any connections between the Directors and Management.

 

[finicky]

I see it as the buy side quite rightly ignoring the ORE alliance, as it is trivial compared to the main issue.
The chart is deadly looking so I am now treating my investment as a binary gamble - win big, or lose the lot if terrorism shuts it down. Or on the other hand an extortionate junta desperate for guns, survival and plunder loots the business. Except for politics WAF already had a provenly great thing going with its current operation as well as the Kiaka development so ORE is an irrelevant distraction.

Held

 

[Sean K]

I see it as the buy side quite rightly ignoring the ORE alliance, as it is trivial compared to the main issue.
The chart is deadly looking so I am now treating my investment as a binary gamble - win big, or lose the lot if terrorism shuts it down. Or on the other hand an extortionate junta desperate for guns, survival and plunder loots the business. Except for politics WAF already had a provenly great thing going with its current operation as well as the Kiaka development so ORE is an irrelevant distraction.

Held

Yeah, I don't think it would be overwhelmingly positive for WAF but would probably be good for ORE shareholders, but right now would be opportunistic. $1.60 to 90c in 5 months would have been a hard hold for the ORE faithful. Looks like it's going to be a 250K oz miner in the next couple of years.

The coups in West Africa don't seem to have been too bad for miners at this stage. Haven't noted any of them stopping work. There's too much money in mining for the coup leaders to shut them down or dissuade exploration dollars. It funds their escapades and keeps the locals on side. In fact, it actually seems like the general population are supportive of these coups as it's seen as a way to remove the inherent corruption in African governments. So, I think it's just perceived risk that puts on the obvious 'coup discount' applied to these miners.

 

[finicky]

Yeah well BtL finance said he was buying it a couple of weeks back (i.e before the most recent plunge). He always seems insouciant about African political turmoil. If I'd had more success elsewhere I'd probably be prepared to gamble a bit more upon a chart change - buy back the half position sold.

Held

 

[finicky]

Posted Oct 1
WAF comments start 6.00

 

[mullokintyre]

WAF quarterly out.
Nearly 50 mill net cash from operational activities.
Gold production on course to reach yearly target.
Being unhedged, the recent jump in gold price will be nice in the next quarter.
Some very high grade ore being mined currently, which will have to taper off at some stage.
But all in all, I am happy with it.
Still holding.

 

[Sean K]

WAF quarterly out.
Nearly 50 mill net cash from operational activities.
Gold production on course to reach yearly target.
Being unhedged, the recent jump in gold price will be nice in the next quarter.
Some very high grade ore being mined currently, which will have to taper off at some stage.
But all in all, I am happy with it.
Still holding.

Looked good. No crocodiles. Current cash earnings is going to pay off the loan for Kiaka pretty quickly. My tactic here is to ride the wave into Kiaka production and don parachute prior to first gold which should be the second peak of Mr Lassonde's curve. A 400M oz producer should be worth much more than current MC. Much more. Fingers crossed coup central has had it's run for the moment and some of the coup discount gets taken out of these WAf goldies. If USD2100 gets taken out in the meantime as an unhedged producer this could go anywhere.