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Only thing wrong with WAF is it is not is a safe country
Only thing wrong with WAF is it is not is a safe countryThis is my 'safe' pick for the 2024 comp, proudly sponsored by Sean K inc.
It has the same ounces as DEG but is more than half the MC. I know there's a discount for WAf miners compared to WA but this is not justified, especially when gold is going to $2700 next year. Plus, WAf will go through a period of relative stability with only five x coups, instead of the regular 10.
I would have preferred to pick the GDX and/or GDXJ, but that's a bit boring.
Of course, this means everyone should short the gold sector.
Only thing wrong with WAF is it is not is a safe country
Though a few years ago I did quite well out of WAF, but it was a nervious investment left me wondering if I would be a winner or grinner, until I decided enough is enough.It's in comparison to the other three picks which are far more dangerous. I would not recommend anyone invest in any of them.
WAF - Market Index had this in the wrap this morning and thought it was good enough for a update here.
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Yea, I was kinda shocked at that.LOL, down 20% in 2 days. It's not a good look on the AISC but an overreaction, IMO. Longer term opportunity. Famous last words, again.
I've given WAF what I believe is a conservative valuation of $1.30. This is purely for my own purposes and my assumptions and calculations would probably be laughble to someone with better analytical abilities.
I will give my scatchings in the sand some other time: suffice now to say it is made on an assumed 2024 ROE and 2023 book value based crudely on the production and AISC guidance just given for 2024. I have figured from that a plausible 2024 ROE of 17% (2022 ROE was 23%, 2023 should be similar imo) and used the 2022 book value of 0.68 as a proxy for 2023. Normally I would pay 3 X BV for that ROE but this is Burkina Faso with a govt Straight Outta Compton and the north seething with muslim insurgents. So 2 X book value for those silly enough to take on the risk of losing the lot: 2 X 0.68 = $1.30 rounded down.
Nothing for doubling of production from Kiaka in 2 years which seems unfair, and nothing for a higher gold price in 2 years for an unhedged producer.
Notwithstanding this I have no present intention of adding to the risk that I already have with WAF
See article which states that 5 mines in BF were shut down in 2022 due to militant activity.
Held and Holding
I caught the knife at 81c for a short term opportunity. A bit worried something else is going on as this sell-off looks unreasonable on the surface of it, so finger twitching on the sell button.
Following with interest as I had a go at the dropping knife too
1.50 would suit me rather nicely thank you very much.One of the few knife catches that's worked recently. Hopefully this old general level of resistance turns support. Should do if POG keeps running like a champion.
Broker's tips of $1.50 is about where I pop Moet.
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1.50 would suit me rather nicely thank you very much.
So who or what is going to send the SP to such lofty levels?
Mick
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