VYS - Vysarn Limited

[basilio]

Very lopsided buy and sell board this morning. Currently running 11 to 1 in favour of buyers.

With such a depressed market overall it will be interesting to see if investors continue to push MHM up before confirmation of who the new commercial partners will be.

 

[skc]

Very lopsided buy and sell board this morning. Currently running 11 to 1 in favour of buyers.

With such a depressed market overall it will be interesting to see if investors continue to push MHM up before confirmation of who the new commercial partners will be.

The share price spike could not be sustained and has come back down significantly. The lack of details means people like me just can't push the buy button as I have no means of valuing the announcement to the business.

No doubt in the next few reports the numbers will reveal themselves.

On the chart, 44-45c should provide support but the stock can be really thin without news so chart reading can be futile.

 

[basilio]

MHM still falling. Currently 37c and no update on progess with the American plant or partners.

I would have thought that with a profitable, sorted out Australian production and a strong US program MHM should be seen far more favourably...

Any thoughts ?

 

[herzy]

MHM still falling. Currently 37c and no update on progess with the American plant or partners.

I would have thought that with a profitable, sorted out Australian production and a strong US program MHM should be seen far more favourably...

Any thoughts ?

I feel sorry for any holders slammed today. I really like this company (never held though). Why the crash? Couldn't find much in the quarterly...

 

[ROE]

I feel sorry for any holders slammed today. I really like this company (never held though). Why the crash? Couldn't find much in the quarterly...

most of their annoucement are hot air
there is no financial figure attached, the way I read it, the American said prove to me, show me your technology works and if it save us money we will looking at taking it up else keep burn cash through your r and d

 

[basilio]

ROE I can't see where you get "most of their statements are hot air". The Australian plant is operational and treating salt slag. It's not an R and D effort. Obviously there are always operational improvments possible with new processes and that is what is occuring. But it seems to me they have a cost effective way to deal with a toxic aluminium waste product which then returns the original resources.

My fear is that MHM is being crunched with a view to an opportunistic takeover offer. I hope the managment have sufficient control to ensure this doesn't happen before they start making substantial profits.

 

[lemontree]

Perhaps some holders are selling their shares causing a drop in sp and exercising their 20c options (expiring 31st aug 2012)?

 

[herzy]

And again! A nice little company, with good potential and good ideas... yet it's share price just keeps sinking.

 

[Vader]

And again! A nice little company, with good potential and good ideas... yet it's share price just keeps sinking.

There are currently 108m shares on issue... and 21m options that expire at the end of this month at a price of 20c... there is absolutely no way in the world that the share price will rise any meaningful amount until at least the end of this month (and then you'll still need to wait for any of the option holders to take whatever profits they want).

It would probably be better for current share holders if the price dropped down to 20c as quickly as possible and stay there until the end of the month - then the majority of those options would likely expire and not dilute your current holdings (by up to 20%) - if that happens, the price should spring back up pretty quickly after they expire.

...on the bright side, there's probably no way the price will sink below 20c before the end of the month.

(my view only which could be completely wrong)

 

[basilio]

MHM has kicked away today. Up 30% on good volume.

The kicker seems to be a big investment by a major shareholder and a further committment to pick up and purchase any options not exercised by the end of the month. That helps the finances and certainly shows confidence in the company.

Lets go !!

 

[Vader]

MHM has kicked away today. Up 30% on good volume.

The kicker seems to be a big investment by a major shareholder and a further committment to pick up and purchase any options not exercised by the end of the month. That helps the finances and certainly shows confidence in the company.

Lets go !!

Yeah, but it also means that existing shareholders are now guaranteed to have their holdings diluted by 20%... there is still about another 17m options to be converted at 20c that are now guaranteed to be taken up by the end of the month... I guess the confidence boost and additional funding it brings in is a good thing, but it could also be quite disruptive short-term if there is a bit of profit taking involved.

 

[herzy]

Yeah, but it also means that existing shareholders are now guaranteed to have their holdings diluted by 20%... there is still about another 17m options to be converted at 20c that are now guaranteed to be taken up by the end of the month... I guess the confidence boost and additional funding it brings in is a good thing, but it could also be quite disruptive short-term if there is a bit of profit taking involved.

Even with profit taking, I assume if the options expire on 31st August, then sometime before the end of August would be a good time to get on board...

 

[skc]

A 6-week suspension for a strategic review on the Geelong plant. It doesn't sound positive at all given the ongoing problems there. Hopefully they can find alternative means of monetising their technology even if they do choose to move forward and away from the cursed plant.

Good luck to all.

 

[basilio]

A 6-week suspension for a strategic review on the Geelong plant. It doesn't sound positive at all given the ongoing problems there. Hopefully they can find alternative means of monetising their technology even if they do choose to move forward and away from the cursed plant.

Good luck to all.

Is it as bad as that SKC? Obviously they are not happy with how they are processing the slag. The small fixes are not working well enough and the new management has decided to bite the bullet and see what sort of "big fix" is required.

I think this is really sensible stuff. MHM is on the brink of proving up their technology in a big way in the US. It would be downright stupid to construct a new plant with engineering that wasn't going to do the job properly. Far better to sort out the technology on the smaller scale Geelong plant before committing resources to the big deal.

Clearly disappointing at the moment. Obviously we hope for a good solution that doesn't cost too much and give away too many propriety secrets.

(I wonder if the steady selling off of MHM shares over the year and since the last announcement has been due to inside concerns with the effectiveness of the plant ?

 

[skc]

Is it as bad as that SKC? Obviously they are not happy with how they are processing the slag. The small fixes are not working well enough and the new management has decided to bite the bullet and see what sort of "big fix" is required.

I think this is really sensible stuff. MHM is on the brink of proving up their technology in a big way in the US. It would be downright stupid to construct a new plant with engineering that wasn't going to do the job properly. Far better to sort out the technology on the smaller scale Geelong plant before committing resources to the big deal.

Clearly disappointing at the moment. Obviously we hope for a good solution that doesn't cost too much and give away too many propriety secrets.

(I wonder if the steady selling off of MHM shares over the year and since the last announcement has been due to inside concerns with the effectiveness of the plant ?

I agree it is sensible approach. It's just more short term pain for holders. Let's see what comes out of the review.

 

[basilio]

Came across an analysis of the MHM situation on another forum that seemed to have a good insight into the situation IMO.

Guys having stayed relatively silent throughout the past 2 months I am now of the opinion that this process has some deeper issues.

Let me state that I think Phil Thick will solve them and I have backed him to date:

These are what I have gleaned from some posts:

Macduff90 -"i followed up with the coy about FR's current involvement. got a surprisingly snotty reply referring me to the 'he has signed a consultant agreement - and we have nothing further to add'. -my reading is he is not involved."

Diets: "I went to presentation last week and found phil to be Very forthright and honest. This presentation was not about trying to pump the SP but about letting us know where we are at and about what his priorities are"

Dane Hill: "As already announced the precursor to the funding issue is the demonstration of the Geelong plant producing at a sufficient & consistent rate to prove & underline the throughput of the US plant. Phil sees a consistent 600-800 tons per week for a couple of months as an acceptable rate for this." "Geelong was, & always will be, a retrofit using a lot of old & used equipment together with our new technology & add-ons. The premise is too small & has the wrong layout for our process stream. When this is put under pressure failures start to appear. That is what is happening at Geelong under a 24 hour operation scenario."

Dane Hill: "Kentucky will be purpose built with new equipment & a complete production line methodology encompassing MHM’s technology from the start which will overcome a lot of the Geelong issues. That does not mean there will not be issues & teething problems but they will be a lot more manageable that at Geelong. "

Theres a whole lot more that makes good sense but some unknown reason I can't upload it . Why?

 

[basilio]

Lets try putting up the post in smaller bits. Is there a problem with quoting another persons opinion? Or is there just too much information in the post ?

My take on all this is - Its opinion and gut feel so its not built out of fact:

Fr and team have been constantly tinkering as many engineers do to try and get the plant operating as they wanted it too - They have not re-evaluated how it would all work if it was started from scratch. Very often a failing which happens when you walk in and have an existing system in place much as Geelong was. You try to modify and yet if you had the time and money would start from scratch. This has also been impacted by the fact that Australia will never have a viable place to be as we only produce around 30,000 tons per annum of waste that needs processing.

The chickens came home to roost this year as they could not keep up the snow they have been feeding and at the end FR fell on his sword. Not sure that he would not have had to when this all came out any way.

The question is what has PT left in the bag to help him sort this out - BM - Merchant banker , SW - Mining consultancy etc. BC - Enough has been said on that point. So my impression is that PT does not have enough skills around him to deliver and to rely on FR that he has replaced would just be more of the same. So he needs more expertise and if I was him I would dump at least one director and replace him with someone who can make a difference.

So he pushes the plant hard - I am not surprised that FR may well not be there as I would want to see if this plant can operate without him there and find out the level of skill left when he is not there. The plant starts popping up areas that dont make sense - The premises are not ideal , the equipment starts showing up faults.

Who did not expect this - I did - I think Firsova did I did not want to get totally out so hold about 25% of my original holding.

.

 

[basilio]

Last piece

I did not go or request to go to the MHM meeting as I did not believe that you would get anything more than a feeling about Phil T.

So now he has to make a decision. every time he stops the plant production collapses and he wants to get outsiders to help him solve some of the issues and he may not want FR to do that work as FR was party to the sale of this technology to MHM. He wants to see it solved with outsiders providing competent responses to the process and its challenges. He needs a new group of experts to get Geelong to work as efficiently as it can and to certify to a financier any issues that are problematic but only because of Geelong and would not impact on USA.

How can he achieve this when a number of shareholders are way over the prudent level of investment risk - an assumption as many of the investors seem to contact the company if the wind even changes and some have said this is a big part of their portfolio.

Even Macgduff90 - who I respect is banging off letters etc. The company's response at one point was to get their attorneys involved in a discussion with a shareholder. Really this is a Footy finals type pressure. So what is best for the company and its shareholders - It is logical if you have some guts - create a standstill whilst you can get outsiders in and stop the share trade whilst this evaluation goes on as the share price could go either way. People could suddenly realise that this is the best thing they have ever worked on and they say so over a beer to a friend and next minute the sp is shooting or the reverse is also possible. You also want some time to talk to the major players like Brazil Farming , FR , BM and the rest. The standstill is a suspension.

Personally the more I hear of this guy PT the more I like him. He has my admiration - He is doing what I wish other companies would do act in everyone's interest and do the right thing.

So I cannot trade my shares for 6 maybe 8 weeks or maybe even 10. This was and is a long term investment so that makes no difference to me and if I re-invest more than I would at least after this period have a better understanding of what I am investing in.

Wish PT could direct me too a few more managers like him.

 

[Country Lad]

A 6-week suspension for a strategic review on the Geelong plant. It doesn't sound positive at all given the ongoing problems there. Hopefully they can find alternative means of monetising their technology even if they do choose to move forward and away from the cursed plant.

Good luck to all.

I agree it doesn't sound positive as there are obviously more problems than can be fixed piecemeal as they have tried to do.

it is a process not working and when that occurs the whole process needs to assessed, blockages identified, reasons for poor outcomes identified on a whole of process basis, not just a bit here and a bit there - that hasn't worked to date. From that point of view, the action taken is positive and probably should have occured a long time ago.

Risk is that the process as a whole is found to be so broken that it can't ever be fixed to operate at an output capacity to make it commercially viable. Speculation at this point is pointless - all that can be done is wait for an outcome of the review.

Just be pleased you are not "all in".

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[basilio]

MHM has published its review and come out of suspension. SP promptly tanked. It is now currently 20c valuing the company at $25m.

Clearly the plant wasn't working properly and given it was cobbled together from bits and pieces that probably shouldn't be a surprise.

The future seems better but obviously further away. One of the key points IMO was the focus on ensuring income was greater than outgoings. Rationalizing offices and so on. They seem to have a handle on fixing the processes but who knows for sure ?

This is still a great technology with the potential to solve a very difficult problem and make a lot of money on the way. There is also the valuable silica mine waiting to be onsold.

Any other thoughts on MHM the review and its prospects ?

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=mhm&f=pdf