I have Tradeguider, I'm new to it and probably not putting in as much time as I should (or as much as Pavilion for example), but I'm not in a rush so happy to plod along just reading/watching seminar recordings on the bus to work. In reality I have debt that takes priority, but I know that at some point I won't and the money that's has been going to it will have to go somewhere useful. I'm taking my time now to come up with a plan for that day.
Plans are fine but unless you know if your plan will return a profit it just a group of ideas.
Tradeguider is something I will persist with because I am learning, which is something I enjoy. Just the "beware the news" advice is probably worth the $500 I paid. But I do wonder if I will ever use all the VSA knowledge in my plan. VSA through their software seems time consuming to narrow down candidate stocks and very dependant on the individuals interpretation. When a trade goes wrong the experts are quick to say it was an error in interpretation ("clearly there was still some selling in that bar..."), rather than just say we have X% success. The implication is that when you're good enough (maybe some more cour$es??) you'll be right all the time!
Unfortunately nothing on the planet is fool proof.Certain chart patterns and bars "indicate" supply and demand characteristics,subsequent bars confirm or refute the indication. How you apply the analysis to your trading and how you manage your trades will determine your success. To expect anyone to place a % on trading their VSA setups is pretty well impossible unless they are using the same set up time and again in isolation and have excellent recording ability like STATOR.
It's definitely not mechanical! How big is the 'edge' for all the time involved?
The edge over people who have no idea what they are looking at is massive.
Over experienced traders ( ones who turn a consistent profit ) it's just another tool in the box.Yes you could make it your only tool but you'd need to be well well ahead of the basic knowledge Tradeguider make available.
You see it's not the analysis that will make the profit --- it's the application and that goes way beyond any technical tools.Think position sizing/ trade and portfolio management.to name a couple.
Seriously you need to know how to develop a mechanical system or subscribe to someone who does like RADGE.
So here is my thinking: Tradeguider recommends we wait until a trend is in place (for 3 bars) after a low/high. So it is trend following (actually trend following in multiple timeframes if we follow their recommendation). They also recommend we trade in harmony with the index, so we have a form of (discretionary) index filter in place. This could just as easily be a EMA/ROC on the XAO to simplify. Tradeguider recommends we have a plan and we stick to it. The VSA software generates Chandelier stops we are told to use. All good advice.
Well it's logical but that's it. There are no numbers or stats which justify the advice.
There are no clear guides to application of the suggested analysis. It's just a set of ideas.
So even without any VSA signals we have a trend following system not totally dissimilar to the 20% Flipper out of Nick Radges book. Except we have chandelier stops rather than fixed %, and we are looking at more than 1 time frame for the trend. We are also shorting falling stocks (not long only). Could this all be an improvement on the "Flipper"? Would it be unreasonable to assume that if the stocks fitting these criteria were selected AT RANDOM without even looking at the VSA signal we should get a CAGR of 30% (al-la the flipper)? Potentially more because of the added criteria?
My question is, if we add the VSA methodology to these "trend following" rules, do we get an edge?
You can use ATR , CHANDELIER or any number of other indicators or add VSA
Endless. Will it improve your results ---- maybe.
My method in it's raw form is better than Flipper.
Radge's is way way better than both who knows what he uses in his.
But I'll bet you could write it on the back of an envelope.
On your point of automating VSA signal into a system, the easiest to start with would have to be End of a Rising Market (narrow spread, close in the middle 3rd of the bar, very high OR very low volume, on a high into "fresh new ground", say 50 bars)? Or Buying/Selling Climaxes, then change in trend to confirm. Apparently they don't happen too often, so having Amibroker keeping an eye out for you would be handy, just in case you're not looking at the right stock at the right time.
Sure you would set up a search to give you prospects. Once of course you have a system your happy with.
Have you considered getting the trial of the "add-in studies" and just using their indicators for some testing?
No.