VRE - View Resources

[chops_a_must]

VRE continued to consolidate today ... so be interesting to see if it can break the current significant resistance and continue it's up-trend ...

Glad I got out today, was able to protect some profit... because the chart looks very bearish in the short term.

 

[Sweet Synergy]

Glad I got out today, was able to protect some profit... because the chart looks very bearish in the short term.

Yeah you could be right Chops, esp after fridays move with vol. Although I think its a hard call, even though it has crossed the recent rising support ... the SP is still consolidating on that important horizontal resistance at .33 Could be forming a little flag. The market depth is still firm at .32 so I'm holding but with a very tight stop.

I noticed the link I posted isn't working, so here is it is again - to the research paper outlining upcoming news etc. http://www.viewresources.com.au/ann...df?PHPSESSID=1429e2915d4e862ee474a960a9d5e891

 

[Sweet Synergy]

Glad I got out today, was able to protect some profit... because the chart looks very bearish in the short term.

Yep u were right! ... finally made up its mind and moved down today on vol so I was out at .32. The vol was fairly high today too, so could still drop further IMO. Will be looking for a re-entry, as the fundamentals suggest this still has some good upside.

 

[chops_a_must]

Yep u were right! ... finally made up its mind and moved down today on vol so I was out at .32. The vol was fairly high today too, so could still drop further IMO. Will be looking for a re-entry, as the fundamentals suggest this still has some good upside.

Fundamentals are very good. Next support at about 28.5, then 26.5. But it's not solid until about 18 or 20. Can't really see it getting there though. The fundamentals are just too good. And will be looking to get in when it begins looking stronger. And still holding options, just in case I don't manage to get back in.

 

[mu5hu]

Any comments on the SP of VRE?
Dropped past the 20MVA and the depth atm doesnt look to attractive
Is it just retracing a lil before it keeps going?

The bollinger bands have started to flatten out into a range. But just before that the bottom bollinger band was on the way up quite strongly while the top band was relatively flat.

I am holding atm

 

[chops_a_must]

Nice bounce off support at 28.5. The sell side still looks a bit too strong for my liking. Still thinking it is likely to go a bit lower.

 

[dubiousinfo]

Director bought 100,000 @ 29.5c on Friday 23/2/07.

 

[mu5hu]

SP did a great climb today.
Broke past 32.5c which i thought was a resistance level. ( over the last month or two..32.5c keeps popping up as a resistance or support level)

my 2 cents

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

SP did a great climb today.
Broke past 32.5c which i thought was a resistance level. ( over the last month or two..32.5c keeps popping up as a resistance or support level)

my 2 cents

Would have too agree, VRE bounced off previous resistance at 25cish during the downspike, and has resumed its uptrend nicely. More importantly the SP has gone straight through previous resistance at 28c and closed at next resistance 32c ish, on an end of day high....nice!

Those who took the opportunity to have taken an entry during the spike are sitting on decent profits, so VRE might trend between the channel for a while before testing highs again.

Investors who are sitting in VRE since the SPP, should be happy with the recent price action of VRE, strong support and bounced at all the right places....then some.

Hard to put a value on the SP mid term, Bronzewing and Carnilya have to provide some further upside......perhaps another 20 odd percent (40cish).
At that point I feel investors and depending on the timeframe (tax wise) long term positions might be pondered..........considering their entries in November.

 

[mu5hu]

Last few days VRE has pulled back down to support level and tested it and bounced off it today and went back up.

Looks like a great sign that its gona keep going too. CROSS fingers haha

Volume increase as well

 

[chops_a_must]

Last few days VRE has pulled back down to support level and tested it and bounced off it today and went back up.

Looks like a great sign that its gona keep going too. CROSS fingers haha

Volume increase as well

Would like to see some numbers crossing the spread on the options to confirm confidence in an upward move though.

The announcement regarding Camilya Hill is due out by the end of the month, and both MCR and VRE have appeared very confident about the prospects.

Was hoping to pick an entry on MCR right about now, but the tumbling nickle price seems to be making that rather tricky...

 

[chops_a_must]

The announcement regarding Camilya Hill is due out by the end of the month, and both MCR and VRE have appeared very confident about the prospects.

It looks pretty good to me. Not much movement as of yet. Might be an opportunity to get in before everyone gets wind of it:

Kambalda nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) has laid the foundations for a new mine development at its 70%-owned Carnilya Hill nickel discovery in Western Australia after today announcing an initial resource estimate of 16,100 tonnes of contained nickel metal for the deposit.

Mincor said today (Thursday) that feasibility studies on the Carnilya Hill Project, located some 25km north-east of Kambalda, were progressing rapidly with a development decision targeted before end-June 2007.

The initial resource estimate – which comes less than a year after the first hole was drilled by Mincor down-plunge of the old mine workings at Carnilya Hill – confirms a substantial nickel discovery with the potential to become Mincor’s fifth mine in the Kambalda district. Carnilya Hill is one of a series of advanced development and exploration opportunities that Mincor has assembled in the region.

...

The resource estimate follows a highly successful drill-out program, the final hole of which was completed last week – delivering an intersection of 2.79 metres @ 8.61% nickel (CMD028W1). The location of this final intersection is considered very promising, as it suggests that the ore trend plunges more steeply from that point than previously expected. This in turn suggests that the ore trend remains entirely open in the down-plunge direction (see long section attached).

In addition to the 16,100 tonnes of contained nickel metal in the Carnilya Hill resource, the tenements contain an additional resource of 1,800 tonnes of nickel metal at the nearby Zone 29 East ore body. This brings the total Mineral Resource inventory at the Carnilya Hill tenements to 17,900 tonnes of nickel metal, 70% of which is attributable to Mincor (12,500 tonnes of contained nickel metal).

...

“At this stage, it looks highly likely that Carnilya Hill will be Mincor’s fifth mine in the Kambalda District,” he said. “As with all our other mines, we expect that the initial mineral resource will grow very substantially over time.€

 

[chops_a_must]

There must be something I'm missing here...

View Resources Ltd (View) and its Carnilya Hill Joint Venture Partner (JV) are expediting the Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) at the Carnilya Hill Nickel Project on the back of the new resource statement released today. The JV will complete the BFS in the next 6-8 weeks and look to recommence mining as soon as practicable thereafter to take advantage of current high nickel prices.

The recommissioning of the historic Carnilya Hill Nickel Project is a quick and low capital cost exercise. The new resource has been identified as a continuation of the western plunge of the main ore body and the existing decline is fully serviceable to the top of the new resource. With all surface infrastructure in place at the mine site and the ore offtake agreement with BHPB current, recommissioning the operation is a low risk process.

View’s Managing Director, Tim Gooch said “We are extremely pleased to see what promises to be another potential major revenue stream coming on line in the second half of this year. With gold scheduled to be poured at Bronzewing next quarter, View is close to taking both its core assets into production in the short term, with resultant profitability and positive cash flow from each by end 2007. This is perfect timing in the current market and represents another significant step towards View’s goal of becoming a mid-tier mining house“.

OK, so we are going to do this paper thingy... but you know what the answer is going to be already! Lol!

Ha. It sounds like they have done the BFS already!

Making money on this one appears as easy as picking up a fat drunk chick in tears at the end of the night. Patience for a month or two might prove to be very profitable.

Disclaimer: Just holding options for now.

 

[chops_a_must]

Making money on this one appears as easy as picking up a fat drunk chick in tears at the end of the night. Patience for a month or two might prove to be very profitable.

Disclaimer: Just holding options for now.

What a finish for this one! nearly 3m shares (75% of the day's trade) turned over in the last 45 mins. Finishing on its highs, above the previous intraday high. Looking pretty good for tomorrow (so long as everything holds up overnight).

Also, do people not realise there are options on this one? VRE went up 2.5 cents, whilst VREO only went up 1.5c. So that's a 1c discount. Plus the leverage on the impending/ current breakout. Does the resistance on the options point to the next resistance on the full share perhaps? My guess would be a gap up to around 39/39.5 tomorrow morning as the resistance for the options is around 19.5 ish. Decided to get more today as the breakout looked ominous and the oppies were lagging.

The sell volume left on the board for the oppies is about the total volume done today. So another good day tomorrow and they could all go.

Good luck to everyone else on this.

 

[imajica]

chops, your informative posts on VRE have been very helpful indeed.

had to buy myself a parcel when it hit 36c late in the day - have a good feeling about this one

 

[Gar]

as did I but its much better to wait until the breakout is 100% confirmed anyway

I was expecting a fairly decent gap this morning but it looks like we're going to have a nice steady build up instead

 

[imajica]

nice steady rise today on good volume to 38c

nothing too extreme to warrant an excessive pullback

next week should be positive for VRE

 

[nizar]

In at .37 today.

 

[chops_a_must]

chops, your informative posts on VRE have been very helpful indeed.

had to buy myself a parcel when it hit 36c late in the day - have a good feeling about this one

Hehehe. Good to see we finally agree on something.

And it's good to see people listening to my posts. Lol! After MCR and MEL it's good to have people on VRE with me. I get so lonely sometimes...

Was a fantastic day for VRE yesterday I thought, although it didn't quite go as well as I thought it would... or might. I think the shorter trading day and the long weekend cut out the enthusiasm. Even still, the good volume and it finishing on its highs once again (especially over the long weekend) is a great sign.


Anyway, I've done some numbers on it today. Feel free to correct me on the following details as it is my first time doing any kind of F/A in public.

First off, the Carnilya Hill project.

Absolute worst case scenario: 5,000 USD p/t of Ni x reserves (17900) / exchange rate of .85 = AUD of 105,294,118 before costs (highly unlikely)

Absolute best case scenario: 50,000 USD p/t of Ni x reserves (17900) / exchange rate of .75 = AUD of 1,193,333,333 before costs (also highly unlikely but possibly more likely than above)

Current value: ~ 50,000 USD p/t at exchange rate of ~ .82 = AUD 1,091,463,415 (before costs)

Most probable scenarios given 27 month Ni contract: 40,000 USD p/t of Ni reserves (17900) / exchange rate of .75 = AUD of 764,852,812 (after possible low cost scenario) 30% attributable to VRE = 229,455,844

35,000 USD p/t of Ni reserves (17900) / exchange rate of .85 = AUD of 494,365,433 (after possible high cost scenario) 30% attributable to VRE = 148,309,630

High cost scenario is derived from Mincor's average cost for total nickel production (~13500 AUD p/t). The lower range derived from the previous average cost (~10600 AUD p/t). HOWEVER, a point to note. This mine was closed when Ni prices were at around USD 4,500. So, it is possible that costs may be as low as 6000AUD p/t.

I would assume that the costs will be somewhere between 6000 and 10600 AUD p/t which would be consistent with MCR's previous projects of this nature, and also in their "non-BFS" "BFS" where they stated it was low cost. Obviously, the fact that it is a recommissioning limits the costs.

Also, of note, is in the resource statement dated 29th March, the last drill hole (only 2 weeks ago) was the most promising, with further drilling expected. There is plenty of potential for resource upgrade on this mine (which MCR has a great track record of producing).

No wonder MCR and VRE are both so bullish on it. The figures are enormous.

Bronzewing

Total current value = AUD 350,900,000 after costs. 100,000 ounce production per year (58,483,333 after costs), total proven resource of 500,000 ounces with very high probability of a further 100,000 (factored into value). And with aggressive exploration in the region, it may have some upside.

Compared with similar sector competition in CRE. VRE currently has a market cap of 114m, CRE with 104m market cap.

CRE has a proven resource of 479,000 and annual production of 479,000. Similar costs, but CRE has had management problems and production delays.

So to me it appears as if VRE has only been rated on its gold potential (compared with CRE), and the market has not yet factored in the value of Carnilya Hill. A big re-rating is on the cards perhaps.

Cheers,
Chops.

 

[chops_a_must]

I should also mention there is an offtake agreement with BHP for the processing etc. But the forecasts did not include cobalt and copper credits which are another ~3% of revenue. It also can't be used as a valuation for MCR due to hedging etc.