VPG - Valad Property Group

[johannlo]

Not in a hurry - but it will most likely get to a SP that more accurately reflects the NTA. Even with the massive gains of late we're still well under fair value EVEN at fire sale prices. See some of the figures in this thread, assume they're wrong by 50% and you're still looking at 30c+ per share.

WHich is why I've climbed on board at these relatively high prices. Out of all the property mobs this one seems one of the more likely to survive and holding good assets. France/Germany data should also give it a big boost.

 

[zebop]

Very excited and hope the run continues now at .16c
Trading halt today re: news of financing to pay out a problem child in Scarborough. I am hoping that when trading begins this friday 25th Sept. and everyone jumps in to get some action SP may hit .20c

 

[Julia]

Before you get too excited, maybe consider Huntleys' comments on this stock, not that they are always right. However, obviously this is a very high risk stock.

Event Analysis
Redefining speculative

Less than four weeks ago, VPG announced its full-year results together with a proposal for the looming remaining payment for the Scarborough European business, which it bought at the peak of the boom on deferred terms. The remaining payment of $60.7m was to be a combination of 3m cash due at the end of September, up to 19.9% of the units in VPG at 10cpu (unless rejected by unitholders, when this portion would be converted into a loan at 15% pa interest) and the balance as a loan at 9.5% pa interest. We described this proposal as ‘simply incredible’, as it added even further costs to an already enormous loss of unitholder funds. Following investor feedback, VPG decided to replace this proposal with a cash payment of $60.7m funded from a heavily-discounted, highly-dilutive capital raising. VPG will raise $59.5m through a $40.2m institutional and retail 1-for-4 entitlement offer and a $19.3m institutional placement. The offer at 10cpu represents a 37.5% discount to the closing price of 16cpu and a 50% discount to the diluted NTA of 20cpu. Such a litany of disaster supports our view that the levels of prudence, conservatism and risk aversion required for the current downturn do not optimise the skills of the current board and senior management. While the entitlement offer is fully underwritten, this is at a staggering cost to unitholders of around $3m or 5% of capital raised. Following the capital raising and dilution, our valuation falls to 15cpu and our recommendation downgrades to Hold. Reflecting the discount to valuation and dilutive effect if foregone, our recommendation is to take up the entitlement offer which closes on Tuesday 20 October 2009. VPG is currently high risk and should only be considered by investors willing to speculate on a positive medium-term outlook.

 

[highlowlowhigh]

hey...is vpg falling cos ppl wanna load off their 10c a share ?

just trying to figure out the big change in buy/sell volumes.

seems that 10cpu is really killing the price at the moment

 

[geea]

VPG

VPG have been drifting down over the last few weeks. It looks to me like someone is manipulating the stock to keep it low. They have an AGM on Monday and hopefully that will shed some light on what they have been doing as they don't announce alot. They seem to have survived the GFC and with no bad news on Monday should head closer to their NTA of 24c.

 

[ectoplasm]

Hi geea,

VPG declined sharply from early 2007, and more recently has been consolidating off a base at 5c. Since October VPG has been declining but appears to have made a base & the last couple of weeks has been rising ~ through resistance IMO. I'm guessing a retest may occur before continuing higher... Anyone else following it?

Daily Chart:

 

[geea]

I believe that VPG had to meet a 45% LVR on the 31st Dec on some of its loans. Once this has been acknowledged i dont see any other major hurdles for awhile. This being the case a share price closer to NTA could be on the cards. VPG is still at bargain prices and once all fear of them going under have gone there will be lots of upwards movement in my opinion.

 

[Happy]

Looks like VPG is taking a breather, and retracement to (8 – 7 cents) 60% to 65% of last year rise might not be a bad thing. Recently price touched on 50% retracement (10 cents) and it would be great if price 10 cents holds any further test.

Anyway, if price doesn’t go lower, $0.135 might be signal to top up.

 

[nioka]

VPG has an SP that remains low despite continuing improvement in the future potential. It is increasing its management portfolio througtout Europe with good contracts that have long term potential. It certainly is building a reputation as a good commercial property manager. In addition it has an NTA well above its market cap. Despite all this the SP remains depressed. This worried me so I have spent some time going through the fundamentals as I see them. I can find nothing that leads me to want to sell VPG. Rather the opposite and I have traded for a few freebies to add to my accumulation of this stock. It is well worth examination. DYOR I may be wrong

 

[pixel]

Something seems to be "cooking", nioka; I agree.
I did get a string of warnings up until July 26; but my 9.3 bid failed to be taken out on the 27th, and I won't chase a stock. In the meantime, volume has dropped off again, and the chance of further retracement cannot be ignored. Definitely watchlist material.

 

[jonnycage]

ive dipped back into these guys, on the dips in the trough. was a holder
long time ago, back in now

j c

 

[dandd]

Valad seems to be in a slide with no bottom. Topped up under 8c and now looks to be testing 7c. Anyone have any views on this stock?

 

[nioka]

Valad seems to be in a slide with no bottom. Topped up under 8c and now looks to be testing 7c. Anyone have any views on this stock?

I'm still buying and averaging down. When something has assets well ahead of its market cap then it should be a good buy. VPG has this and the NTA does not include any allowance for goodwill or for the value of its management business. I can see no reason for recievership, that is the only worry. I'm expecting VPG to trade its way back to a point where the SP will have a change for the better. DYOR ( I'm often wrong)

 

[Tekwrek]

Can anyone tell me whats happenened to VPG it seems to have been removed from the ASX.

 

[nioka]

Can anyone tell me whats happenened to VPG it seems to have been removed from the ASX.

There has been a share consolidation, 20 to 1. The shares are now being traded through a broker as VPGDA. They will be back trading as VPG sometime next week. The actual day is on their website or from their notice. Seems odd to look at the SP. About what it has been in the past. Pity we don't own as many shares.

 

[dandd]

Currenly trading at an equivalent of 6.35 cents so quite a drop while this stock has been consolidating. Hopefully it will pick up once back on the market under VPG.

 

[dandd]

New low around 5.5 cents today. Need some good news or increase in Orbit's shareholding to bolster this stock I think.

 

[nioka]

New low around 5.5 cents today. Need some good news or increase in Orbit's shareholding to bolster this stock I think.

Not the best of a result from a share consolidation. Good news is needed. I would have expected the company to have had something up their sleeve that would have created some interest in the stock to main a reasonable share price post consolidation. The fundamentals get better as the difference in the SP and the NTA increases. Thats the only consolation so far. VPG is not turning out to be one of my better stocks however I will hold while there is such a large gap between the SP and the NTA. As the saying goes "for better or for worse).

 

[dandd]

Well we finally got some news and it seems to be shaping up that management may end up the big winners if they manage to buy the European business at a rock bottom price. What's in it for the shareholders I wonder. Not exactly a massive rally today. Any thoughts?

 

[jonnycage]

Not the best of a result from a share consolidation. Good news is needed. I would have expected the company to have had something up their sleeve that would have created some interest in the stock to main a reasonable share price post consolidation. The fundamentals get better as the difference in the SP and the NTA increases. Thats the only consolation so far. VPG is not turning out to be one of my better stocks however I will hold while there is such a large gap between the SP and the NTA. As the saying goes "for better or for worse).

Hi Nioka, ive followed, bought in and out of this stock plenty of times. but it interests me again. I'd be keen to hear your current thoughts

jc