VPE - Victoria Petroleum
- Thread starter RichKid
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VPE seems to be flying largely under the radar IMO. With several projects kicking off between now and Q1 2010, hopefully this one will pick up some interest. Drilling success so far has been very good and look at the directors and investors backing this one. I think they may be on to a discovery and are a likely target for BG to buy them out, perhaps?
My 2 bobs worth-
I believe that VPE is trading a 70% discount to a simple back-of-the-envelope valuation.
VPE have announced a reserves upgrade at the Don Juan field that they own
45% of with Bow Energy. They've now got 45pj 2p net to VPE which at 70
cents a pj it's worth $31m. The oil side of VPE is conservatively valued
through ITC at $42m - I believe this is cheap based on the current
production and there's plenty of upside. ITC should in my opinion,
be genuinely excited about the prospects of the oil fields.
VPE have cash on hand as at the 30th of June of ~$18m. So the simple maths
says $31m + $42m + $18m gets us to $91m. The current market cap is $130m.
Gives us a value of the coal seam gas assets PL171 & ATP574 of $39m. This
is extraordinary given QGC have stated the Gas In Place for the fields is
2,500pj with somewhere around 560pj's of this net to VPE. QGC have a chance
of success on these two fields of 90%!! Pretty good odds in my books. On
current transaction multiples this is worth around $400m!!
So you're buying VPE with upside of 3 times the current market cap with
absolutely no upside accounted for with the oil. It's extraordinary that
there's selling at 35 cents given the very transparent valuation. The
sellers are frustrated/bored which is great for us as it allows us to
continue buying at less than half price.
When will the value be realised? QGC have to push for drilling on ATP574
between now and April so there's 6 months of very aggressive drilling
across PL171 & ATP574. Hopefully there's still the selling around for the
next month as it allows us to buy more but if I had to guess this stock
will really heat up over the summer months into early next year.
All IMHO and the usual DYOR.
Disclaimer - I hold VPE and VPEO and will continue to hold,
Regards
Bazollie
I believe that VPE is trading a 70% discount to a simple back-of-the-envelope valuation.
VPE have announced a reserves upgrade at the Don Juan field that they own
45% of with Bow Energy. They've now got 45pj 2p net to VPE which at 70
cents a pj it's worth $31m. The oil side of VPE is conservatively valued
through ITC at $42m - I believe this is cheap based on the current
production and there's plenty of upside. ITC should in my opinion,
be genuinely excited about the prospects of the oil fields.
VPE have cash on hand as at the 30th of June of ~$18m. So the simple maths
says $31m + $42m + $18m gets us to $91m. The current market cap is $130m.
Gives us a value of the coal seam gas assets PL171 & ATP574 of $39m. This
is extraordinary given QGC have stated the Gas In Place for the fields is
2,500pj with somewhere around 560pj's of this net to VPE. QGC have a chance
of success on these two fields of 90%!! Pretty good odds in my books. On
current transaction multiples this is worth around $400m!!
So you're buying VPE with upside of 3 times the current market cap with
absolutely no upside accounted for with the oil. It's extraordinary that
there's selling at 35 cents given the very transparent valuation. The
sellers are frustrated/bored which is great for us as it allows us to
continue buying at less than half price.
When will the value be realised? QGC have to push for drilling on ATP574
between now and April so there's 6 months of very aggressive drilling
across PL171 & ATP574. Hopefully there's still the selling around for the
next month as it allows us to buy more but if I had to guess this stock
will really heat up over the summer months into early next year.
All IMHO and the usual DYOR.
Disclaimer - I hold VPE and VPEO and will continue to hold,
Regards
Bazollie
Wot is happening with this stock??? Another oil discovery at Snatcher 3 in the Cooper Basin and the market just ignores it. A very active drilling program and the market just ignores it. IMO the SP should be flying. Am I missing something or is it just unloved? Your thought please. 
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I wonder the same thing. With a 50% increased interest in Growler and Snatcher fields, that will see an estimated 284% in operating net cash flow from oil sales; this one seems to be flying under the radar
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Victoria Petroleum (VPE) have been placed in pre-open this morning at the request of the company until 4th December 2009 or earlier.
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The cap raising announcement will co-incide quite nicley with the finish of the Fury-1 well, don't know if the two are related but will certainly take the sting out of the cap raising ann if they announce a good find of oil or gas in volume on the same day.
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Lovely 30% drop in the VPE options today.
Dry Hole John strikes again. Here's a good idea - a change of management!
How can you have faith in a company that fails to deliver time and time again? They put so much effort into a meagre oil play whilst sitting on good CSG assets - not the Don Juan assets (Don Juan the fictional character did nothing but slept around and be dragged away to hell, and this CSG play with BOW has done about as little.)
How about making a choice to go hard after a set asset base, instead of trying to be a jack of all oil/gas plays!
Dry Hole John strikes again. Here's a good idea - a change of management!
How can you have faith in a company that fails to deliver time and time again? They put so much effort into a meagre oil play whilst sitting on good CSG assets - not the Don Juan assets (Don Juan the fictional character did nothing but slept around and be dragged away to hell, and this CSG play with BOW has done about as little.)
How about making a choice to go hard after a set asset base, instead of trying to be a jack of all oil/gas plays!
Page 24;
Potential Value $1.66 per share ($1.07+$0.43+$0.08+$0.08)
Should take some of the sting out of the SPP!
http://www.vicpet.com.au/Reports/download/Corporate_Update_041209.pdf
Potential Value $1.66 per share ($1.07+$0.43+$0.08+$0.08)
Should take some of the sting out of the SPP!
http://www.vicpet.com.au/Reports/download/Corporate_Update_041209.pdf
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37 buyers for 1,150,835 units 55 sellers for 1,717,755 units
You do know that these figures don't mean much in that buys and sells can be posted to prop up a SP and removed before they look like selling/ buying?
Ok that does make a lot of sense. Thanks for that bit of knowledge and the info. Your time and wisdom is appreciated.
A bit of movement in the last couple of days with the announcement of the company's first ever annual profit. You'd think that VPE would have to be on the way up with Gas projects gearing up and the prospect of significantly increased oil production if ever the flood waters in Central Australia go away.
A bit of movement in the last couple of days with the announcement of the company's first ever annual profit. You'd think that VPE would have to be on the way up with Gas projects gearing up and the prospect of significantly increased oil production if ever the flood waters in Central Australia go away.
Seems they're still flying largely under the radar! Hopefully things will move steadily up!
I believe that the Catalyst for VPE will be the pending announcement by the Federal Govt on the LNG Projects for Gladstone. I believe that the announcement is due in the 2nd week of October. VPE are sitting in a cosy little area surrounded by some big players who have had success in CSG drilling.
If the Federal Govt give the LNG Projects the go-ahead it will create a huge rush in Engineering, contracting and Infrastructure Projects from the Roma District all the way through to Gladstone.
Could be the most interesting 4 weeks coming for VPE IMHO!
Holding VPE and still waiting
Bazollie
If the Federal Govt give the LNG Projects the go-ahead it will create a huge rush in Engineering, contracting and Infrastructure Projects from the Roma District all the way through to Gladstone.
Could be the most interesting 4 weeks coming for VPE IMHO!
Holding VPE and still waiting
Bazollie
A bit of movement in the last couple of days with the announcement of the company's first ever annual profit. You'd think that VPE would have to be on the way up with Gas projects gearing up and the prospect of significantly increased oil production if ever the flood waters in Central Australia go away.
Hey Knucle there is a suggestion that VPE could de-risk their Oil Production facilities with the flooding issue, by installing a pipeline. This will resolve the transport issues and keep the oil flowing even through the wet times.
Fingers crossed for this to happen, as it will improve their cashflow immensely!
Regards
Bazollie
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have to agree again with you on the vpe share bazza
nice run up atm for the share.. and some critical news flow to come in the next few weeks
good luck to all holders
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As is almost allways the case with speccies, announcements (or pending announcements) of a good nature shoot the sp up, but invariably if the announcements peater out the sp comes back down again. It is production and actual profit that in the end determine the companies sp. I think VPE is finally transitioning from speccie to producer.
Personally I think that the jump in sp has everything to do with VPE's announcement of a maiden profit, and not because there are some possibly positive CSG announcements around the corner... This is a milestone in VPE's history, and has been a very very very long time coming.
Unfortunately due to the flooding in the cooper, next years revenue will be similar to this years, as both financial years will have had around 6 months of non-production. This will put a damper on any sustained growth that is based on production/profit.
I'm certainly very pleased to see this milestone, hopefully it will usher in what I've been waiting for: Sustained organic growth without the need for constant capital raising, and maybe one day some dividends. I think we still have a fair way to go (ie I don't think we will see the full potential of VPE for qute a few years yet) but at least now I think we can finally say the corner has been turned.
I'm expecting a retrace before too long, looking overbought on the daily. but hopefully 30c will now be reasonable support.
I hold and if the run up is big enough I will definitely be selling some. avaerage buy price for me is around 27c
Tony.
Personally I think that the jump in sp has everything to do with VPE's announcement of a maiden profit, and not because there are some possibly positive CSG announcements around the corner... This is a milestone in VPE's history, and has been a very very very long time coming.
Unfortunately due to the flooding in the cooper, next years revenue will be similar to this years, as both financial years will have had around 6 months of non-production. This will put a damper on any sustained growth that is based on production/profit.
I'm certainly very pleased to see this milestone, hopefully it will usher in what I've been waiting for: Sustained organic growth without the need for constant capital raising, and maybe one day some dividends. I think we still have a fair way to go (ie I don't think we will see the full potential of VPE for qute a few years yet) but at least now I think we can finally say the corner has been turned.
I'm expecting a retrace before too long, looking overbought on the daily. but hopefully 30c will now be reasonable support.
I hold and if the run up is big enough I will definitely be selling some. avaerage buy price for me is around 27c
Tony.
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Hi Wintermute
I agree that this current run has been probably to do with the profit made this year, despite the hard times there's profit.
I also think that this run may be a delayed response to the changing of the guard. Sure JK brought a lot of experience to the board, but I think a change is good and not only that - people that are adept at developing a company are important.
I really don't agree with your point about the cooper floods putting a damper on sustained growth. I'm a believer in CSG and VPE's position in one of the sweet spots of the Qld CSG fairway is not to underestimated.
There's facilities that will come for LNG that will require all the resource that the likes of STO and QGC can get their hands on. VPE's average 20% stake in the two fields won't be overlooked - we just need to know what these fields hold - that'll be a big influence on the short term price. I can't remember when the lease lapses and needs to be converted to petroleum lease rather than exploration - perhaps someone else can remember?
I would be surprised if there wasn't another buying opportunity this year - but i've been in this share since 06 and it's not seen better days.
Hatchy
